Oliver Wahlstrom is a Boston Bruin! Selected in the first round (No. 11) of the 2018 NHL Draft, Wahlstrom was expected to lead the future of New York Islanders hockey as the franchise’s next elite goal scorer. Now over six years later, those expectations are long gone, as the winger has been claimed by the Bruins on waivers. Given the 24-year-old has fallen from a potential 40+ goal scorer to a depth piece, it is safe to say the Islanders have not gotten what they hoped for with their draft pick, so, what went wrong?
Wahlstrom’s Development
Heading into the 2018 NHL Draft, Wahlstrom was widely regarded as a consensus top-five talent, boasting a raw but dynamic skill set that positioned him as a projected top-10 pick. Then, a few surprising selections in the top 10 allowed the Islanders to draft the Portland, Maine native with the 10th overall pick, much to the delight of Islanders fans.
Wahlstrom had just completed a dominant 70-goal, 139-point season with the United States National Team Development Program. As one of the younger players in the draft class, his production was even more impressive, and he was committed to Boston College, one of the premier collegiate hockey programs in the world. Despite concerns about his effort and defensive play, his immense talent was clear, and there was little reason to foresee the struggles that followed.
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In his first and only season at Boston College, Wahlstrom fought to find consistency but still managed to tally eight goals and 19 points in 36 games. While respectable, these numbers fell short of expectations. Nonetheless, he opted to turn professional, signing an amateur tryout with Bridgeport, where he tallied two goals and three assists in five games to finish the season. At just 18 years old, there was still no significant cause for concern about his development.
The following season, Wahlstrom went scoreless in nine NHL games during the fall but spent the rest of the year in Bridgeport. There, he recorded 10 goals and 22 points in 45 games, leading all AHL teenagers in goals and points per game. This performance sparked early optimism about his future in the organization.
Wahlstrom’s NHL Struggles
Wahlstrom’s best NHL season came during the 2020-21 campaign when he tallied 12 goals and 21 points in 44 games. Despite this, he failed to earn the trust of head coach Barry Trotz during the playoffs, resulting in his being a healthy scratch for all but five postseason games. Additionally, his average ice time was just 12:23 per game, comparable to that of depth players like Leo Komarov (12:49), Austin Czarnik (12:29), and Michael Dal Colle (11:54). Over the next four seasons, he continued to struggle to secure consistent ice time.
When Lane Lambert replaced Trotz as head coach in 2022, Wahlstrom showed flashes of improvement. He began the season with a bang, scoring three goals and four points in his first two games, followed by a hot streak in mid-November with two goals and five points over seven games. However, his overall play remained inconsistent, and a torn ACL suffered in the first period of a Dec. 22 matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins ended his season.
Since returning from the injury, Wahlstrom has not regained his skillset. Even before the injury, he struggled with skating, recording a top speed of just 21.34 miles per hour (MPH) and 43 bursts over 20 MPH, both well below the league average, according to NHL Edge. Last season, these metrics declined further, with his top speed falling to 21.21 MPH and only nine bursts over 20 MPH. Across key skating categories, Wahlstrom ranks well below league average, and the eye test supports these numbers. As well, coaches have seen this issue, resulting in his limited ice time.
In addition to skating struggles, Wahlstrom’s offensive and defensive production has regressed. During the 2020-21 season, he posted 0.64 goals per 60 minutes (G/60), a career-high 0.85 expected goals per 60 minutes (xG/60), and 1.27 points per 60 minutes (P/60), per MoneyPuck. These were strong numbers for a 20-year-old, but his production has declined each season since, reaching lows this season of 0.50 G/60, 0.42 xG/60, and 0.75 P/60, all among the lowest on the Islanders. Additionally, this season he holds the seventh-lowest even strength goals percentage (25%) and 12th-lowest expected goals percentage (38.3%) in the entire NHL, with only Joel Armia and Robby Fabbri sustaining worse metrics in each category.
Defensively, Wahlstrom has also struggled, with poor positioning in the defensive zone leading to costly mistakes, such as Kevin Fiala’s game-winning goal against the Islanders on Dec. 10. While some of these issues can be attributed to his skating limitations, now two years removed from the injury, significant improvement has yet to be seen.
What Went Wrong With Wahlstrom?
Wahlstrom’s skating struggles were one reason he never reached his potential, but there were other factors at play. The first, and most obvious, is the fact he has played under three NHL head coaches during his 220 NHL games and six different head coaches in total since the 2018 Draft, spanning the past seven seasons.
As well, Wahlstrom developed during a time when the Islanders were contending for a Stanley Cup, making it incredibly difficult to earn consistent ice time at such a young age. A global pandemic was also of no help, as league-wide restrictions were put in place, making an already difficult task to get accustomed to the NHL even more difficult.
Wahlstrom’s ACL injury was undeniably a major setback. The trio of Wahlstrom, Josh Bailey, and Mathew Barzal combined for nine goals over 23 games before his injury. However, their overall performance was unsustainable, with a 44.7 expected goals percentage and 2.96 expected goals against per 60 minutes (third worst among qualified lines), all while getting outshot 152 to 145. Despite this, Wahlstrom’s rising ice time demonstrated increasing confidence in his performance, as he averaged nearly 13:30 per game in his final weeks—almost two minutes above his career average—before the injury interrupted his progress.
Ultimately, Wahlstrom’s skill set never aligned well with the Islanders’ systems. Under coaches Trotz, Lambert, and Patrick Roy, defensive awareness, responsibility, and speed were essential, yet these were Wahlstrom’s biggest weaknesses. On a rebuilding team with less pressure and more room for mistakes, he might have thrived and maintained an NHL roster spot. He is just 24 years old, so his career is far from over, but a lot has to go his way for him to sniff the potential he once held as he now heads to Boston.
Wahlstrom’s early struggles were understandable, but they quickly became barriers to securing top-six minutes and power-play opportunities. His inability to adapt to a bottom-six role, even after receiving ample chances, ultimately led to the Islanders placing him on waivers. For a while, fans saw his raw talent and upside as a reason to believe he would blossom into their next elite power forward, but unfortunately, that never happened.
