The Winnipeg Jets have gotten off to a much-hotter start to the 2024-25 season than most expected, winning their first eight games and ultimately going 9-1-0 in October.
Related: Jets: 10 Notable Numbers Through 10 Games of 2024-25
The Jets will play 14 games in November and there are three keys to success to them maintaining their position atop not only the Central Division and Western Conference, but the entire NHL.
1: Keep Special Teams Firing On All Cylinders
The Jets’ special teams looked truly special in October and got off to fast starts and stepped up in key moments under a new pair of assistant coaches.
The revamped power play is off to an absolutely scorching start, operating at an NHL-best 44.83 per cent clip by scoring 13 goals in 29 opportunities (and doesn’t even take into account the multiple goals they scored either on delayed penalties or just after penalties expired.) Both units Davis Payne has created look dangerous and get quality chances nearly every time they are on the ice; the new-look top unit with Nikolaj Ehlers in the bumper position has done well in generating fresh opportunities for one-timers, shots from the point, and quick passing plays that get opposing goaltenders moving laterally.
PPPERFETTI 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 pic.twitter.com/5WhUXfvZhV
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) October 27, 2024
It’s quite the departure from last season, when the 22nd-ranked power play converted at just 18.75 per cent was too often predictable, passive, and static.
Similarly, the penalty kill looks improved from the regime that finished 21st last season, killing off 80.95 per cent of its situations to sit 13th (it took a 10-percentage-point hit by allowing two goals in three situations in the 6-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings.)
Dean Chynoweth has brought much more aggressive tactics to the table and he’s rolled out Kyle Connor, Ehlers, and Mark Scheifele when down a man in addition to bottom-six guys more typically considered “penalty killers.” The choice to use skilled players in hope of generating more shorthanded chances with turnovers and speed the other way led to the Jets’ first shorthanded goal of the season on Oct. 26 against the Calgary Flames when Connor potted one to finish a two-on-one rush.
While the power-play percentage is bound to come back to earth at some point, as long as the combined percentages continue to equal 100 or more and both regimes keep building confidence, they’ll be in good shape.
2: Don’t Forget About Importance of 5-On-5 Play
Strong special teams can propel teams to victory, to be sure, and have done just that for the Jets a couple times already this season. While it’s a much-welcome development that the special teams are winning them games instead of costing them, the team also needs to remember that excellent five-on-five play has been a cornerstone to their success their identity.
A combination of timely scoring while allowing little defensively at five on five was the reason the Jets were able to capture 52 wins, 110 points, and finish second in the Central last season despite their special teams being subpar for long stretches. Scoring five goals at five on five against the Red Wings was a good sign because entering the game, the Jets’ expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at five on five was just 2.1, 30th in the NHL, and their expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at five on five was 2.49, 15th in the league.
Last season, the Jets finished 13th in the NHL with a 2.52 XGF/60 at five on five and 10th with a 2.39 xGA/60 en route to capturing the William M. Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed.
However, after racking up a handful against the Red Wings, the Jets have 32 goals at even strength, an average of 3.2 per game. Last season, they scored 211 times at even strength, an average of 2.60 per game.
One line that that desperately needed to step up and produce more at even strength was the Connor/Scheifele/Gabriel Vilardi contingency. That trio gave up way more than it produced at even strength last season under Rick Bowness and did the same this season prior to the game against the Red Wings, entering the contest outscored 9-2 and producing less than one goal per 60. Head coach Scott Arniel broke them up in the third period of the Oct. 28 loss to the Maple Leafs, but gave them a chance at redemption in Detroit and they made good on it by popping off for three five-on-five first-period goals.
The majority of the game is played at even strength, and while the few minutes a team spends up or down a man or two can play an outsized role in the result, the Jets cannot forget that priding themselves on outplaying opponents five on five has served them very well.
3: Manage Hellebuyck’s Workload Properly
The Jets are in the midst of a long stretch of playing every second day — said stretch began on Oct. 18 against the San Jose Sharks and stretches through Nov. 9 against the Dallas Stars. The next time they have back-to-back days off is Nov. 10 and 11, but that will be a brief reprieve in a busy 14-game month.
The schedule ramping up considerably makes properly managing Connor Hellebuyck’s workload a much-more-pressing objective. The longtime workhorse goaltender and 2024 Vezina Trophy winner wants the crease every night and would never admit he needs a breather, but Arniel cannot fall into the trap his predecessors did and ride Hellebuyck too hard too soon; doing so always blew up in Paul Maurice’s, Dave Lowry’s and — to a lesser extent — Bowness’ faces. Hellebuyck has, in many stretch runs over his career, looked completely exhausted in the crease.
There has been no Vezina hangover or new-contract complacency for Hellebuyck this campaign. Also in the first year of a massive extension he signed a year ago, he has been terrific, posting a 2.12 goals against average (GAA), .923 save percentage (SV%), a 7-1-0 record, one shutout, and 6.0 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAA.) The 31-year-old has allowed more than three goals in a game just once, against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct. 28 when he was largely abandoned by his defenders.
Just because the Jets only have one back-to-back this month (the latter game being when one can usually bank on the backup getting the nod) doesn’t mean Hellebuyck should start the other 13.
Eric Comrie, who is in his third stint with the organization, never gained Maurice and Dave Lowry’s trust during his previous season-long stint as Hellebuyck’s backup, which was 2021-22. That’s despite him putting up career-best numbers: a 10-5-1 record, 2.58 GAA, and .920 SV% in 16 starts and 19 appearances. Hellebuyck started 66 games that season, had a GAA near 3.00, and the Jets missed the playoffs.
Arniel must work Comrie in more meaningfully this time around to keep Hellebuyck’s to a maximum of 60 starts by the end of the season. Comrie has made two starts so far — against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Oct. 20 and Flames on Oct. 26 — and has been good enough aside from allowing two sharp-angle goals in his latter appearance. He has a 3.00 GAA but also owns a respectable .915 SV%, a pair of victories, and 1.3 GSAA.
Comrie should get at least three starts before the calendar flips to December: on Nov. 1 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, on either Nov. 14 against the Tampa Bay Lightning or Nov. 16 against the Florida Panthers, and on Nov. 23 against the Nashville Predators in the second half of a back to back.