2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 9.1 - The Hockey Writers - NHL Entry Draft

This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

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Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 9.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 9.1:

1) Los Angeles Kings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Anaheim Ducks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

4) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

5) Ottawa Senators — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

6) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

7) New Jersey Devils — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

8) Buffalo Sabres — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

9) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

10) Chicago Blackhawks — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

RELATED:THW Writers Mock Draft

11) Minnesota Wild — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota takes Lundell for the fourth time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1, mock 4.1 and mock 7.1. As mentioned in each of those scenarios, Mikko Koivu is the most common comparison for Lundell and he is the most common match for the Wild. Only once have the Wild passed on Lundell when he has made it out of the top 10 in this mock series — with that occurring in mock 8.1, when Minnesota opted for this next prospect instead.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg takes Sanderson for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 1.1. The Jets are in a position to let Minnesota make up their minds for them if Lundell and Sanderson both make it out of the top 10. In those scenarios, Winnipeg would gladly take whoever is left over as the best player available. In mock 8.1, it was Lundell, but in mock 1.1 and here, it is Sanderson. Winnipeg can’t go wrong either way since both are top 10-worthy prospects in a normal draft year — and both could still go in the top 10 this year. The Jets may consider Western Canadian centres Connor Zary and Dylan Holloway over Sanderson based on that position being a need in the present, but Sanderson would ensure left defence becomes a position of strength for the future in joining Josh Morrissey, Ville Heinola and Dylan Samberg, among others.

13) New York Rangers — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Barron to some surprise — not because he isn’t talented enough to go this high, but because the Rangers already appear set at right defence for the foreseeable future with Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox, Tony DeAngelo and top prospect Nils Lundkvist. However, the majority of their other defence prospects are lefties and a lot could change between now and when Barron is NHL ready — considering he lost a lot of development time during his draft year due to a blood clot that sidelined him long term, causing Barron to miss the World Juniors and also causing his draft stock to plummet among the public rankings. Entering the draft year, most had Barron in this range — knocking on the door of the top 10, with comparisons to Ryan Ellis and Thomas Chabot. The Rangers will know this prospect and the family better than anybody, having drafted his older brother Morgan Barron in the sixth round in 2017. Morgan, a forward, has since been an overachiever as a Hobey Baker finalist this season and drafting Justin could help convince Morgan to sign with the Rangers rather than testing NCAA free agency next summer.

14) Florida Panthers — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: Florida takes Holloway with Dale Tallon seeing shades of Jonathan Toews, who he took third overall for Chicago back in 2006 following his first season as the Blackhawks’ general manager. That worked out well, obviously, and the Panthers could be targeting a centre this year after trading away Vincent Trocheck. There are also reports that 2016 first-rounder Henrik Borgstrom is heading home to Finland and perhaps seeking a change of scenery in the NHL. Holloway would cushion that blow and become a big part of Florida’s future down the middle behind Aleksander Barkov. Holloway may not have as much offensive upside as Toews, but he brings similar intangibles in terms of character and leadership, which would be valued by Tallon.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus takes Quinn, coveting his 52-goal draft year as a team needing more scorers up front. Quinn can certainly put the puck in the net as a finisher, but he is an all-purpose forward who would fit into John Tortorella’s system. Columbus fans can think of Quinn as a better version of Cam Atkinson, which is quite the compliment considering Atkinson scored 41 goals in the NHL two seasons ago.

16) Calgary Flames — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes Lapierre, feeling he is the best player available and seeing him as a potential linemate for 2019 first-rounder Jakob Pelletier. Both are from the QMJHL, where the Flames seem to be having more success lately — also stealing Russian import Dmitri Zavgorodny as a 2018 seventh-rounder. There are concussion concerns with Lapierre, but he was considered a top-10 talent for this draft class coming out of last summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup and has drawn favourable comparisons to Patrice Bergeron. Lapierre could form a one-two punch with Sean Monahan, bumping Mikael Backlund to the third line. That would give Calgary enviable centre depth, providing Lapierre stays healthy.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Zary, having seen plenty of him in the WHL’s B.C. Division and believing his offence can translate to pro with the possibility of shifting to the wing. Regardless of position, Zary could be productive in Vancouver’s top nine. The Canucks could envision him centering a future third line alongside Kole Lind or perhaps flanking Bo Horvat as likeminded forwards. Zary is a different player than Dylan Holloway, who the Canucks took in mock 8.1 as more of a grinding force to complement the likes of Adam Gaudette and Jake Virtanen or eventually Vasily Podkolzin. Zary’s versatility and compete level could work in that role too, which makes him all the more attractive to Vancouver.

18) Nashville Predators — Ryan O’Rourke (LD, Canada, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville takes O’Rourke, reaching for a two-way defender that my THW colleague Mark Scheig has already declared the steal of the draft. O’Rourke made a very strong impression at the CHL Top Prospects Game and could have captained Canada at the cancelled world under-18 championship. That tournament would have done wonders for O’Rourke’s stock as a first-round talent — this is only the second time he has been selected through nine scenarios, previously going 30th to St. Louis in mock 5.1 — but the Predators have stolen their share of defencemen over the years and could be higher on O’Rourke than most.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Jacob Perreault (RW/RC, Canada/USA, Sarnia OHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Perreault for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 4.1. As mentioned there, the Hurricanes will be familiar with Perreault from tracking the progress of 2019 second-rounder Jamieson Rees as his teammate in Sarnia. Perreault scored 30 goals as a 16-year-old rookie during Rees’ draft year, so he surely would have been on Carolina’s radar before netting 39 more as an OHL sophomore this season.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton takes Amirov with Ken Holland having a history of success with Russian forwards in Detroit — a list that includes Pavel Datsyuk, Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov and Slava Kozlov. The Oilers took two Russians among their six selections last year in Holland’s first draft at the helm, so expect that trend to continue. Amirov is a real puck hound and plays a responsible two-way game but also has impressive finishing ability, possessing a well-rounded skill-set that would be welcomed in Edmonton’s top six as a future wingman for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins if he shifts back to centre.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Mysak for the second time — a repeat pick from mock 3.1. The Senators wouldn’t get any centres in this scenario, coming away with a defenceman in Drysdale and two wingers in Raymond and Mysak, but it would still be an incredible haul for Ottawa. The Sens literally can’t lose this year. Mysak isn’t as flashy as former Senator and fellow Czech Martin Havlat, but he might score just as many goals in the future.

22) Dallas Stars — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

ANALYSIS: Dallas takes Grans with the Stars being very fond of their Nordic defenders — both Swedes and Finns. They previously took Joni Jurmo in mock 2.1 and William Wallinder in mock 3.1, but Grans might be more appealing than either of them since he is right-handed and that is more of a need for the Stars — especially with the uncertainty surrounding Stephen Johns. Grans has a lot of tools but projects as more of a shutdown type, which could make him an ideal partner for Miro Heiskanen behind John Klingberg and Esa Lindell in Dallas’ top four. Grans could also be paired with 2019 first-rounder Thomas Harley in the future whereas Wallinder and Jurmo are both lefties like Harley, Heiskanen and Lindell. All things being equal, Grans could be the guy for Dallas.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take Askarov for the second time — previously taking him at 13th overall in mock 3.1. This is the absolute lowest that Askarov could go, in my opinion, with the Rangers not willing to pass on him twice. Granted, the fan base would be baffled by these selections — Barron and Askarov, both at positions of strength for the organization — but Jeff Gorton would be going with the BPA approach here, as in best player available. There would still be outrage amongst the Rangers’ faithful over these results, even if Askarov proves to be a massive steal at this spot. That backlash might be reduced if the picks were reversed — with Barron taken here at 23rd and Askarov at 13th again. Or maybe not, since the Rangers already have their Russian goaltender of the future — and seemingly the present — in 24-year-old Igor Shesterkin. They could have a Russian tandem next season with Alexandar Georgiev, also 24, staying in the fold as Shesterkin’s partner. But Askarov is only turning 18 next month and will likely continue to develop in Russia for a few more seasons with the potential to be a superstar whenever he arrives in the NHL. The Rangers have a few other goaltending prospects that appear promising — recently signing NCAA standout Tyler Wall, plus unheralded AHLer Adam Huska and 2018 second-rounder Olof Lindbom — but Askarov’s upside is higher than anybody and everybody in the Rangers’ system, including Shesterkin.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh takes Peterka, getting the other German winger after previously selecting Lukas Reichel in mock 7.1. They are quite different as players, with Peterka possessing breakaway speed and an attacking mentality. He is also more of a shooter, though not much of a sniper, whereas Reichel is more of a playmaker and a processor with the ability to contribute in a variety of roles and situations. Reichel may be a bit underrated and perhaps the safer pick between them, but Peterka has a higher ceiling with the potential to be an impact player and even a gamebreaker at times.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Tyson Foerster (RW, Canada, Barrie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia takes Foerster as a sniper from the OHL, reminiscent of taking Travis Konecny at 24th in 2015 and Morgan Frost at 27th in 2017 — albeit under a different management regime. Foerster is bigger than Konecny and arguably a better finisher than either of them as he displayed during his MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospects Game and throughout the second half as the go-to guy for Barrie. There is more to Foerster than just his scoring and he could become a complementary player like Barrie alum Tanner Pearson if he doesn’t fill the net as a pro. There are a lot of transferrable skills with Foerster, which makes him a fairly good bet to be a first-rounder.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Kasper Simontaival (RW, Finland, Tappara Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Colorado takes Simontaival as a high-skill Finn with the potential for high reward. The Avs have been adding Finnish talent in recent years since taking Mikko Rantanen in the first round in 2015. That included a pair of third-rounders in 2018 who are trending well in goaltender Justus Annunen and NCAA forward Sampo Ranta. If not Simontaival, Colorado could reach for fellow Finnish winger Veeti Miettinen, who is going the same route as Ranta — committed to St. Cloud State for next season. Roni Hirvonen, a centre, is another Finn capable of cracking this year’s first round, but Simontaival has the highest ceiling among those three and the Avs can certainly take their chances on the Finn with the most upside given the depth of their prospect pool.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Ridly Greig (LC/LW, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose takes Greig, a gritty Western Canadian forward with plenty of offensive upside as one of the younger prospects in this draft class with an August birthdate. Greig also has NHL bloodlines — his father Mark was a first-round pick back in 1990. The Sharks have done well scouting the WHL for forwards — particularly with later-round finds like Noah Gregor, Jake McGrew and Rourke Chartier, plus WHL-bound imports Joachim Blichfeld and Rudolfs Balcers, not to mention the free-agent signings of Alex True and Jayden Halbgewachs — so it’s safe to assume Greig will be on San Jose’s radar. If the Sharks see Greig as a centre in pro, that would likely increase their interest since it’ll be a position of need for their future.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Emil Andrae (LD, Sweden, HV71 J20)

ANALYSIS: Vegas takes Andrae as an undersized Swedish defender with similarities to Erik Brannstrom, who the Golden Knights drafted in the first round in 2017 but traded to Ottawa as the key piece in the package for Mark Stone. Shockingly, this is the first time that Andrae has been selected in this mock series — despite being ranked by many as the top European defenceman for 2020 — but it has been difficult to find the right fit for Andrae in the back half of the first round. Maybe Minnesota becomes a landing spot if the Wild wind up with Pittsburgh’s conditional pick, but Vegas could see Andrae as a replacement for Brannstrom in their system. The question is, would the Golden Knights take Andrae over WHL defenders Kaiden Guhle and Braden Schneider, who are both surprisingly still available in this scenario? I wouldn’t bet on that, with Vegas having previously taken Guhle in mock 1.1 and Schneider in mock 5.1.

29) Washington Capitals — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington takes Schneider over Guhle in this scenario, changing their mind from mock 6.1 when the Capitals also had their choice between those WHL defenders and went with Guhle. Schneider might be the better fit since he is right handed and that is more of a need for Washington’s future behind John Carlson. The Capitals have WHL alums and fellow first-rounders Alexander Alexeyev and Lucas Johansen coming on the left side, along with second-rounders Jonas Siegenthaler and Martin Fehervary. Washington’s prospect pool doesn’t have much for righties on the way, so Schneider would be a nice addition as a shutdown type and a complement to Carlson — perhaps sooner than later, with Schneider further along in his development as one of the older prospects for this draft class.

30) St. Louis Blues — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis takes Mercer as their best player available, with this being a fairly easy decision for the Blues in this scenario. There are lots of quality options in this range — as evidenced by the variation throughout this mock series — but Mercer is expected to go in the top 20 and could be a steal here at 30th overall. Mercer might fall or slide to some degree as another older prospect who tailed off a bit in terms of production following the World Juniors and his trade from Drummondville to Chicoutimi. St. Louis would be stoked to get Mercer this late.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim takes Guhle — the younger brother of current Ducks defender Brendan Guhle — to close out this scenario. Kaiden is more talented than Brendan and has been highly touted for years as the first overall selection from the 2017 WHL bantam draft. The Guhle brothers have a lot in common as far as their skill-sets go, but Kaiden’s tools are better across the board — his skating, shooting and hitting are all more powerful. Kaiden is more physical in general and has a much harder slapshot — perhaps the hardest among all defenders in this draft class. The Ducks are already strong at left defence — both in the present and for the future — but Anaheim wouldn’t pass on Guhle as their best player available to round out the top 31.

Recapping Results for Mock 9.1