After leading the North Division at the start of the new year, the Toronto Marlies experienced a series of poor results, particularly a dismal March, which forced them to scramble for playoff qualification, ultimately finishing in fourth place. This outcome sets up a first-round matchup against their historical nemesis, the Cleveland Monsters. Toronto’s recent victory over Cleveland on April 12 was significant; it marked their first win against the Monsters since Nov. 25, 2022. To find the last time Toronto secured a regulation victory at home against Cleveland, one would have to look back to Oct. 19, 2019.
Throughout the regular season, scoring against Cleveland has been challenging for Toronto, as they have managed to score more than two goals in a game against them only twice, once in a 4-1 victory and once in a 6-5 shootout loss. This is in sharp contrast to Cleveland’s overall performance, where they allowed 219 goals, the second highest among all Eastern Conference teams that qualified for the playoffs. If the Marlies want to make a deep Calder Cup Playoff run, it’s going to be what they did well in the regular season and capitalize on those strengths here.
Utilizing Special Teams Effectively
During the regular season, the Marlies’ power play was a significant factor, as the penalty killing struggled to maintain an effectiveness rate below 80%. The Marlies’ penalty kill was a strength for the team; although it occasionally faltered, it consistently found a way to recover. The Marlies finished the season with a power play conversion rate of 19%, ranking 11th in the American Hockey League (AHL). They scored a total of 47 power-play goals, with contributions from Alex Steeves, who netted 13 goals (tied for second in the league for power-play goals), and Alex Nylander (tied for fifth). The power play has featured various formations, but the key components have remained consistent.
But they must focus on avoiding penalties. At the start of the season, the Marlies were one of the most disciplined teams in the AHL, leading the league in penalty kill. The Marlies’ penalty kill was one of the best in the league, ranked fifth with an 84.2% success rate last season as well. However, they experienced a notable decline in discipline as the season progressed. They committed 328 minor penalties—ranking third most in the AHL—while drawing only 303 in response. In contrast, Cleveland has a positive situation with a two-minute penalty differential.
The Monsters will depend on Trey Fix-Wolansky, Rocco Grimaldi, and Luca Del Bel Belluz, who collectively scored 22 power-play goals. Cleveland has also benefited from the return of defenceman Denton Mateychuk, who contributed four power-play goals in 27 games. Additionally, William Villeneuve stood out with 15 power-play points, nine of which were primary assists.
Loading Up the Offence
When evaluating which team has the advantage based on regular-season statistics, the Marlies have the edge in terms of offensive firepower. While the Marlies’ offence wasn’t the best in the league, it was slightly better than the Monsters. They finished the season with 209 goals, while the Monsters finished with 206. As stated before, the most significant difference in this series with the penalty kill is keeping the puck out of the net. The Marlies finished with the eighth-best goals against record with 197, while the Monsters finished 21st with 225 goals against.
Cleveland will rely on their trio of Fix-Wolansky, Grimaldi, and Del Bel Belluz to provide scoring. Together, they accounted for 70 goals and a total of 171 points during the regular season. It’s also important not to overlook additional contributions from Roman Ahcan (18 goals, 11 assists) and Owen Sillinger (11 goals, 18 assists). Furthermore, the addition of Mateychuk will bring an offensive boost to the Cleveland blue line, which has struggled to generate offence.
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On the other hand, the Marlies will look to Steeves and Nylander to find the back of the net. Nick Abruzzese enters the playoffs in exceptional form, having scored three goals and added five assists in his last four games, exuding confidence. Although Logan Shaw and Joseph Blandisi haven’t had standout offensive seasons, both are experienced veterans who excel under pressure. Shaw has regained his form in recent weeks and is likely feeling more confident now than he was a couple of months ago.
The Marlies’ strength lies in their depth scoring, with ten players hitting double figures in goals this season. With contributors like Robert Mastrosimone, Roni Hirvonen, Cédric Paré, and possibly even Jacob Quillan in the bottom six, Toronto can rely on each line to produce offence and maintain confidence in their scoring abilities.
Goaltending
The goaltending situation for the Marlies has been a fascinating story this season. Two late-round draft picks, Artur Ahktyamov and Vyacheslav Peska, made their professional debuts after coming over from overseas. Dennis Hildeby, a highly regarded top prospect, has excelled with the Marlies but hasn’t been able to find a spot with the Maple Leafs. Additionally, veteran Matt Murray, who recovered from a serious injury.
Each of these goaltenders has performed well for the team, with all but Peska, who played only five games, finishing with over ten wins and a save percentage (SV%) above .900. The Maple Leafs have listed Ahktyamov as their third goaltender for their playoff roster so they will begin the postseason with Hildeby in goal. Still, they also have the option to switch to Murray at any time. This option could be significant if the series lasts a long time, as Games 2 and 3 are scheduled to take place consecutively.
Cleveland’s second returning NHL player, alongside Mateychuk, is goaltender Jet Greaves. Without Greaves, Toronto would likely be the clear favourites to win this series. Cleveland will rely heavily on Greaves, who has a record of 21-11-6, three shutouts, and a .920 SV%.
Cleveland struggled in the final stretch of the season, managing only one victory—a 6-5 shootout win against Toronto—in their last five games. In those four defeats, the Monsters scored just five goals and were even shut out in their final regular-season game. In contrast, Toronto finished strong, going 4-0-2 in their last six games, driven by the need to secure a postseason spot. The Marlies played more effectively overall by adhering to their structured game plan, which ultimately led to their success. To win against Cleveland, Toronto needs to maintain this structure and avoid making significant self-inflicted mistakes. If they can accomplish these two objectives, their solid goaltending and potent offence will likely be too much for Cleveland to handle.
