The Edmonton Oilers have traded Kailer Yamamoto and Klim Kostin to the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for future considerations. Based on the Oilers’ situation, this trade that occurred one day before the buyout window ends and two days before free agency begins can be seen as a major win, but also a big loss. Let’s dive into why that is.
Oilers’ Trade a Big Win
Ken Holland and the Oilers’ management have been tirelessly working to move Yamamoto so that they could free up $3.1 million for next season. While the team is in their window to win the Stanley Cup now, they can’t be carrying players who aren’t holding their weight. Throughout the season, it became more clear that Yamamoto was that player for the Oilers.
The small winger who the Oilers drafted in the first round of 2017 has not lived up to his potential offensively for the most part, and 2022-23 hurt him. His offence exploded when he was called up for 27 games during the 2019-20 season, posting 11 goals and 26 points, but he followed those high expectations up with a tough showing in 2020-21. He then gave the Oilers some hope with 20 goals and 41 points in 2021-22, setting the bar for him to reach or top this season.
Unfortunately, the bar was not reached, as Yamamoto scored just 10 goals and 25 points in 58 games. What forced the hand of the Oilers and what made other teams hesitant about investing in him was a combination of things. He played the majority of the season in the top six beside centermen like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. While Yamamoto didn’t receive much power-play time, he was with those two stars and getting tons of offensive chances, which were hardly converted. He does not stack up well against many of the Oilers for where he played and how much time he got with the elite forwards.
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Yamamoto finished seventh on the Oilers in even strength points with 23 and just barely topped players who played in the bottom six all season, like Klim Kostin (21), Mattias Janmark (21), and Ryan McLeod (20). Warren Foegele was the bottom-six player that topped Yamamoto in even strength points with 27, along with the five other regular members of the top six. All this is related to value plummeting, especially down the stretch where he was demoted to the bottom six and scored two goals in the final 19 regular season games and one goal in 12 playoff games. The big win is that the Oilers moved the full value of his contract for the final year without having to buy him out. This was likely the final offer they had on the table, and when it appeared as though Kostin was asking for too much on his next deal, he was a throw-in/sweetener.
The Oilers now have an extra $3.1 million to work with to re-sign players like Evan Bouchard, McLeod, and Janmark while also addressing their right wing for cheaper. Who knows what could have happened if there wasn’t enough cap space to properly deal with Bouchard and McLeod at the very least. Not only does this allow for multiple things to happen easier for the Oilers, but Holland also doesn’t have to buy Yamamoto out or be forced to trade Foegele after such a strong end to the season. If either of those options came to pass, it would have been a much bigger loss for the Oilers.
Big Loss for the Oilers in Regards to Trade
The big loss for the Oilers in this trade is that the value for Yamamoto dropped so low, and they didn’t get anything back for him. This was another first-round pick gone to waste as similar type players like Yegor Sharangovich, Ross Colton, and Alex Newhook, who were all recently traded, got great returns. Yamamoto has a similar, or even better, points-per-game than all of them in their young careers and is still only 24 years old.
While the Oilers could have given Yamamoto one final chance if the team was on the rise, this Oilers’ team is at the top with little to no cap space to work with. That isn’t a luxury like they once had. He might be a great locker room guy, but the main goal is to win. He wasn’t working out in a top-six role, and it wasn’t affordable to have him playing bottom-six minutes, once again at a $3.1 million annual average value cap hit.
The other big loss is Kostin, but the situation seemed inevitable at this point. The Oilers were trying to sign him, but reports were that he was asking for a bit too much money per season, even if it was short-term (from “We’re quite a ways apart”: Ken Holland on tough contract negotiations with Klim Kostin”, Edmonton Journal, June 26, 2023). He was a great fit with the Oilers in the bottom six as he could shoot the puck great and play a physical game. Although the team loses someone they had hoped to keep, there’s a good chance he has a contract lined up in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) anyways (from “What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?”, The Athletic, June 15, 2023). The Oilers have the young bodies to replace him, and someone like Raphael Lavoie might have a much better chance to make the team now.
At this point, the major win overshadows the big loss since the Oilers can move on and have room to do what they please with the extra cap space. There’s no money on the books from Yamamoto and Kostin, the team can bring back their restricted free agents (RFA) without a ton of stress, and add a cheap top-six winger, as there are definitely some solid options available.