With their emphatic 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Nov. 27, the Colorado Avalanche officially crossed the quarter-point of their 2023-24 campaign and improved their record to 15-6-0. They hold a two-point lead atop the Central Division and are within two points of the Vegas Golden Knights for pole position in the Western Conference with two games in hand.
The Avalanche’s season has, to date, been a tale of three distinct streaks. They first strung together six consecutive wins to start October while outscoring their opponents 27-12, conjuring up comparisons to the dominant 2021-22 Stanley Cup-winning team.
Then, back-to-back 4-0 shutout losses kicked off a 2-5-0 run where the team was outscored 31-15 while also suffering miserable 7-0 (Golden Knights) and 8-2 (St. Louis Blues) losses to conference rivals. Goaltender Alexandar Georgiev struggled immensely and legitimate questions were being asked about general manager Chris MacFarland’s offseason recruitment.
Fortunately, the most recent streak has revitalized Stanley Cup dreams around the organization. A 5-1 drubbing of the Seattle Kraken (Nov. 13) marked the beginning of the Avalanche’s current 7-1-0 stretch which has featured marquee victories over the red-hot Vancouver Canucks, the Lightning, and the Dallas Stars. They’ve beaten their opponents by a collective 37-16 margin over that time, bringing them up to a plus-20 goal differential (third in the NHL) for the season.
The first two months of the season have been nothing short of entertaining and maddeningly inconsistent. With the wider context of the campaign established, let’s hand out five superlatives which help flesh out the remainder of the Avalanche’s 2023-24 season.
Most Surprising Player: Valeri Nichushkin
With all of the ambiguity and controversy surrounding Valeri Nichushkin‘s abrupt exit from the 2023 Playoffs, many rightfully wondered if he would ever play for the organization again, let alone at a high level. Since the NHL has moved on from the incident, there’s no sense in re-litigating something for which we have no additional information or context.
It’s hard to say that a player whose contract carries an average annual value (AAV) of $6.125 million can be a positive surprise, but Nichushkin is playing at a truly inspired level so far this season. The Russian winger has tallied 10 goals and 20 points in 21 games, putting him on pace to shatter his previous career-highs of 25 goals (2021-22), 30 assists (2022-23), and 52 points (2021-22) set during the two previous seasons.
Nichushkin also ranks fourth on the team in even-strength scoring (13 points) while playing the third-most minutes per night among Avalanche forwards (19:52), including a career-high 2:12 per game on the penalty kill. He’s head coach Jared Bednar’s jack-of-all-trades, with his versatility and forechecking allowing him to be moved up and down the lineup as Bednar sees fit.
The 28-year-old is creating scoring chances and high-danger opportunities at the second-highest clip of his career to go with a healthy dose of powerplay deployment, so there’s no reason to believe his production will slow down.
There’s a reason why the team committed to Nichushkin after the Stanley Cup run, and he’s showing why on a nightly basis this season. With utility forward Artturi Lehkonen out injured for the foreseeable future, Nichushkin is going to be relied upon even more heavily until his teammate’s return.
Most Disappointing Player: Bowen Byram
If we’re going to anoint the most disappointing player relative to preseason expectations, 22-year-old defenseman Bowen Byram is without peer in this department, especially after signing a bridge deal this offseason. The burgeoning blueliner overcame concussion setbacks to tally 10 goals and 27 points in 49 regular-season and playoff games last season, to follow up a breakout performance in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
As such, to even say Byram’s 2023-24 campaign has been a disappointment can be seen as an understatement. He’s only tallied six points in 21 games which represents a 23-point pace, and he’s seen his ice time drop by around two minutes per night on average compared to last season.
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Arguably the most concerning statistical trend dotting Byram’s profile is his penalty-taking. He’s already accrued 30 penalty minutes (PIMs) in only 21 games, eight away from his career-high of 38 set last season in 42 games. He’s taking 2.14 minor penalties per-60-minutes in all situations this season after only committing 0.91 infractions per-60 the season before and has been whistled for a league-leading 15 minor penalties for the campaign.
At minus-10 (five drawn, 15 taken), Byram also owns the league’s worst penalty differential regardless of position. He’s struggling to remain disciplined and keep his feet moving while defending, a worrying development for a player who should be improving in this department. To be fair, he’s drawing penalties at a higher rate than last season, but it’s not that impressive when you give it all away with your own lack of discipline.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Byram however. His underlying numbers suggest he’s just pushing through a cold spell despite generating scoring chances at a similar rate to his first few seasons in the NHL. His five-on-five share of shots and chances are still well above 50% so the Avalanche aren’t losing the possession battle with him either. He’s shown the ability to make plays and drive the puck in the right direction in the past, so I bet it’s only a matter of time before the old Byram resurfaces.
Quarter-Season Most Valuable Player: Cale Makar
If someone is being mentioned in the same breath as Hall-of-Famers at your position, it’s hard to argue against their case for being their team’s most valuable player across any stretch of games. For Cale Makar, adding another Norris Trophy win to an already impressive career resumé is becoming increasingly likely, with the Hart Trophy also within reach.
Makar ranks fourth among all skaters with 32 points in 21 games, but third in points per game (P/G) and first in per-game scoring among defensemen. His 26 assists lead all skaters and he sits tied for third in even-strength scoring (18 points) while playing heavy minutes in all situations (18th among all skaters) and while shorthanded (23rd).
Makar’s 32 points are 20 more than Devon Toews’ total – his most common defensive partner – to lead the team’s defensemen, and four more than Nathan MacKinnon (28) to also hold the overall skater lead.
The Avalanche’s blue line superstar isn’t neglecting his defensive duties at the expense of offense either, with the team controlling nearly 58% of the expected goals share at five-on-five when Makar takes the ice (16th among all defenders).
Makar has and will continue to face stiff competition from the Canucks’ Quinn Hughes for both the Hart and the Norris, a battle that was explored in my early Norris Trophy race overview. There’s not much more that I can say that wasn’t covered in that piece other than to say that no defender – or even forward – has had as significant an all-around impact as Makar so far.
Key Team Strength: Five-on-Five Play
It’s often the case that teams riding hot shooting streaks or getting unsustainable strong goaltending early on in a season are perceived to be stronger than they are in reality. The small sample size early on and resulting variance contribute to overshadowing a team’s underlying process at five-on-five in particular, contributing to the creation of plenty of paper tigers.
Instead, focusing on a club’s share of shots and chances – which offer more predictive value for forecasting future success – helps to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Fortunately, the Avalanche not only boast a handful of skilled players capable of outperforming their expected goals tally, but are driving play in their favor to a significant degree.
| Statistic (%) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 54.2 | 4 |
| Scoring Chances | 53.8 | 8 |
| High-Danger Chances | 56 | 5 |
| Expected Goals | 54.3 | 6 |
| Goals | 53.9 | 10 |
The Avalanche’s dominance at five-on-five is not only driven by above-average offensive creation, but is also underscored by an elite defensive structure.
Colorado ranks ninth or better in terms of shots, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances for per-60-minutes, but also grades out as ninth or better in the corresponding defensive metrics, highlighted by conceding the fourth-lowest rate of expected goals against per-60.
Posting strong results at five-on-five doesn’t guarantee success over a small sample (like the first two months of the season), but it can act as a solid foundation for success in the long term.
Key Area of Improvement: Avalanche Power Play
It’s not often that a power play featuring the likes of Makar, MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen is highlighted as being in need of improvement, but that’s the situation facing the Avalanche through 20-odd games. Their power play has converted on 17 of its 86 total opportunities, with the resulting 19.8% efficiency good for 18th in the NHL.
In terms of powerplay production, Nichushkin leads the team in goals (five), MacKinnon in assists (10), and Makar in points (11). MacKinnon is currently snake-bitten (zero goals with the man-advantage after 12 last season) but if he overcomes his recent power outage, it’s likely that the entire five-man unit collectively finds its feet.
The Avalanche’s powerplay strategy could also use some fine-tuning. Not only have they struggled to score, but they’re not even generating shots and quality chances at a meaningful rate. They rank 15th or lower in terms of shots, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances per-60-minutes, with their scoring chance rate in particular (24th) a cause for concern.
The Avalanche possess the offensive weapons needed to capitalize on the man advantage, even if their underlying numbers aren’t as sparkling as one would hope for such a collection of talent. Special teams make a huge difference in the playoffs though, so sorting out the power play should be a key priority going forward.
Girard Enters Player Assistance Program
I’d like to end the piece with a nod to Avalanche defenseman Samuel Girard, who recently announced that he would be entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and would be on indefinite leave from the team. His situation serves as a stark reminder that hockey is just a game and that there are more important things in life than what happens on the ice. The Avalanche writing team here at The Hockey Writers wish him all the best in his recovery.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.