Edmonton Oilers fans are very familiar with free agent Kailer Yamamoto. The 25-year-old was a first-round pick by the team in the 2017 Draft and tallied 50 goals and 118 points in 244 career games before getting traded to the Detroit Red Wings last offseason. Now an unrestricted free agent, the Oilers should sign Yamamoto as a depth piece to solidify the team’s depth.
Expectations for Yamamoto
While Yamamoto was a fun and electric player at times, it is important to temper any expectations. He scored just 16 points (eight goals and eight assists) in 59 games for the Seattle Kraken last season, and has a career-high of 20 goals and 41 points, both set with the Oilers in the 2021-22 season.
However, that was three seasons ago, and Yamamoto shot nearly four percentage points higher than his career average that season. As well, he spent the majority of his time alongside Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers’ best forwards. This is not to say Yamamoto did not play well, but his strong performance was largely a result of his surroundings more than his abilities. Yet, this is the very reason the Oilers should sign him.
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If there is one lesson the Oilers have learned in the McDavid era, it is that depth matters. For the better part of his NHL career, the Oilers have surrounded McDavid with elite talent in the top six, but the bottom has been a weakness. By signing Yamamoto, the Oilers would be bringing in a player who has chemistry with the team’s top stars, can play anywhere in the lineup, and would be signed for cheap.
The Oilers do not need roster forwards, especially since they are already tight to the salary cap ceiling without Dylan Holloway or Philip Broberg signed to contracts.
Ideally, Yamamoto would be signed to a two-way deal with the intention of starting the season in the American Hockey League (AHL). This would be quite a demotion for the 303 career NHL game veteran, but considering he is yet to sign a contract this offseason, he may have to settle for any deal he can get.
With Yamamoto’s best career seasons coming in Edmonton, he would be inclined to sign a two-way deal in a place of familiarity rather than a new club. He would join the Bakersfield Condors top line and would round out his game by working on his skating and finding consistency in his offensive game as he fought to earn a call-up to the NHL in the case of an injury or trade.
What Would Yamamoto Sign For?
Yamamoto is likely still holding out for a one-way offer on a team looking to round out its NHL roster, but the clock is ticking. With training camp just weeks away, his leverage is dwindling, so he should not cost much. The most likely contract is a one-year, two-way deal worth at or above $775,000, the NHL league minimum. This would be his salary in the NHL. In the AHL, the terms would likely land on $400,000 to $500,000, still a hefty salary for an AHLer. Of course, this would not hurt the Oilers as he would not impact the salary cap if in the AHL.
Another potential outcome is for Yamamoto to be forced into signing an AHL contract with the Condors. Alexander Nylander, despite being a high-upside unrestricted free agent, recently signed an AHL contract with the Toronto Marlies. This was due to the Marlies’ opportunities and the Toronto Maple Leafs’ hesitation to offer him one of their 50 contract slots. The one issue with this deal is Nylander could sign an NHL contract with any NHL team at any time, and the Leafs would not be able to retain him.
Assuming Yamamoto signs a one-year deal worth under $1.15 million, there is no reason for the Oilers not to bring him in. At that price, he is a 20+ goal scorer signed for cheap or an AHLer who does not impact the Oilers’ salary cap. Either way, Edmonton has no downside, so targeting their former first-round pick makes perfect sense.
