Now that the 2024 Stanley Cup has been awarded to the Florida Panthers, the Colorado Avalanche and the rest of the NHL can turn their attention to the offseason. The 2024 NHL Entry Draft will take place on June 28 & 29, and NHL free agency opens on July 1.
Rumors are swirling around the Avalanche’s Ross Colton after he made an appearance on an NHL insider’s trade board. Colton was acquired (along with the now-departed Ryan Johansen) last offseason as a potential solution to the team’s long-standing hole at second-line center, a roster spot that has seen a revolving door of candidates since Nazem Kadri left as a free agent following the team’s Stanley Cup win in 2022.
Colton signed a four-year, $16 million contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $4 million per season after being traded to the Avalanche. That is fair compensation for a player who could challenge for a permanent role centering the second line.
While Colton was effective in a middle-six role, the Avalanche’s looming salary cap crunch and a new face vying for the same top-six role could force general manager Chris MacFarland to trade him for cap relief after only a single season in Colorado.
Landeskog and Nichushkin Situations Are Sources of Uncertainty
Based on how the Gabriel Landeskog (recovering from surgery) and Valeri Nichushkin (in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program) situations unfold, the Avalanche may need cap space to reactivate them when the time comes. The NHL recently announced that the salary cap is set at $88 million for the 2024-25 season, a $4.5 million increase from the 2023-24 season. Assuming that Landeskog and Nichushkin return at some point, the team would only have around $4.3 million left to sign or promote at least two forwards and two defensemen, as the pair collectively count for $13.125 million against the cap.
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However, the situation is still uncertain. Landeskog has not played in a game since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. He participated in some on-ice activities and isolated skill work towards the end of the season and playoffs, but there is no concrete timeline for his return.
Nichushkin is currently in Stage 3 of the Player Assistance Program and will serve a six-month suspension (eligible to apply for reinstatement in November) if there are no other setbacks. If he violates the terms of Stage 3, he will be suspended for one year without pay and have no guarantee of reinstatement.
While there is no guarantee that either will return to the fold, the possibility that at least one will play during the regular season means that MacFarland must demonstrate foresight and leave room to maneuver.
Mittelstadt Trade Makes Colton Expendable
Outside of the lingering concerns about two of the Avalanche’s key forwards, the fact remains that Colton may no longer have the opportunity to claim the second-line center role. While the 27-year-old posted career-highs in assists (23) and points (40), his role diminished once the team acquired center Casey Mittelstadt ahead of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline.
Colton played an average of just over 12 minutes during the regular season and just over 13 minutes in the playoffs while Mittelstadt pushed over 17 minutes in the postseason after creeping up on 16 minutes per game in the regular season, following the trade. Mittelstadt also scored seven goals and 21 points in 29 regular-season and playoff games after the deadline, while Colton tallied five goals and 11 points in 29 regular-season and playoff games. Mittelstadt’s playmaking added another dimension to an already dangerous Avalanche attack and helped bolster the support behind the club’s star forwards.
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Mittelstadt recently signed a three-year contract with a $5.75 million AAV following his stellar showing post-deadline, putting the onus on Avalanche management to figure out how to best allocate the remaining cap space. Not many teams can succeed in the cap era while committing over $22 million to their top three centers alone and nearly $10 million to their middle-six pivots. The team may find Colton’s $4 million AAV a little rich for what he offers and his likely role going forward.
Colton’s contract carries a full no-trade clause (NTC) which comes into effect this July 1 but turns into a modified NTC (Colton provides a list of teams to which he would not accept a trade) on July 1, 2025. If he is dealt, it will likely happen before the start of free agency when he cannot veto any potential trade.
Avalanche Offseason Could Bring Significant Change
The Avalanche may see significant roster turnover even if Landeskog and Nichushkin do not return this season. The team counts seven pending free agents on its books (all unrestricted), many of which will command salaries greater than what the Avalanche can accommodate.
The biggest change could occur among the forward group, with four of the pending free agents being a center or winger, and all played a regular shift in the postseason. Winger Jonathan Drouin earned a raise on his $0.825 cap hit after a career-best 56-point campaign and proved more integral than Colton. The three on defense (Jack Johnson, Caleb Jones, and Sean Walker) all played peripheral roles during the playoffs, so their departures aren’t as difficult to address internally.
Whether it’s through the signing of bargain-bin free agents, the promotion of their top prospects, or notable trades, the Avalanche will have a new look in 2024-25 as they seek the fourth Stanley Cup championship in franchise history.
Data courtesy of CapFriendly and the NHL.
