The sky is falling in Colorado, but should it be? After 27 games, the Colorado Avalanche own a record of 14-13-0 and a points percentage (PTS%) of .519. That puts them right on the periphery of the Western Conference playoff race, an underwhelming position for a team which has entered every season as a Stanley Cup contender for the past half-decade. The discourse around the organization’s future trajectory has been volatile, with every faction within the fanbase staking their flag in the ground as finger-pointing runs rampant.
Yet, the team’s fortunes have not plummeted after an October and November underscored by a comically long injury list and subpar goaltending. Since starting the season with four straight losses while being outscored 25-13, the Avalanche have gone 14-9-0 in the following 23 games with a minus-two goal differential and are currently two points back of the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference’s second wildcard spot.
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While understandably difficult to muster at the moment, perhaps greater optimism from all parties is warranted given the circumstances. Let’s dive in.
Avalanche Battling Through Injury Crisis
Only the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have amassed a greater cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) than the Avalanche through the first two months of the season. Much of that figure is owed to the long-term absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog whose timeline for a return remains uncertain and has shifted multiple times since undergoing major knee surgery during the spring of 2023.
Otherwise, Jonathan Drouin (22), Valeri Nichushkin (17; was suspended), Colton (17), and Lehkonen (12) have all missed double-digit games this season, robbing the Avalanche of half of their regular top-nine forward group. Nichushkin and Lehkonen have both returned to the lineup, but Miles Wood has since been deemed month-to-month with an upper-body injury and both Drouin and Colton remain out of commission.
Avalanche Goaltending a Clear Weak Spot
Aside from the rash of injuries affecting the Avalanche lineup, the state of the team’s goaltending is of the most concern after nearly a third of the campaign. Alexandar Georgiev (17 games played), Justus Annunen (11), Scott Wedgewood (two), Trent Miner (one), and the since-waived Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have all appeared in the Avalanche crease to mixed results.
The quintuplet collectively owns a .857 save percentage (SV%) and has allowed over 14 goals above expected (GSAx) according to Evolving Hockey, both of which are the worst team-based marks in the league. It’s the worst goaltending the Avalanche have received since Cale Makar joined the team for the 2019 Playoffs, and is a major reason for their precarious position in the standings.
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The trade which saw Wedgewood arrive in Colorado in exchange for Annunen could provide some respite from the Avalanche’s goaltending woes. He hasn’t been an elite performer in recent seasons (.907 SV% since 2021-22) but that mark comes in at slightly above those belonging to Georgiev and Annunen (both at .903) over the same time period, so the situation likely can’t get worse.
The two main issues with the deal are that Wedgewood is 32 and has never played more than 37 games in a single season (he did so in 2021-22), but the swap should be deemed a massive success even if he proves to only be an effective one-year stopgap. The other half of the tandem has been well-discussed, but expect the noise to continue until the position is addressed with more than a band-aid solution.
Avalanche Driving Play at Five-on-Five
Let’s turn to the positive. Despite missing many key forwards, many of whom rotate through the top-six at times, the Avalanche have remained an elite team at five-on-five according to their share of shots and scoring chances.
| Statistic (%) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 44.8% | 25th |
| Shots | 53.7% | 4th |
| Expected goals | 52.1% | 7th |
| Scoring Chances | 55.3% | 2nd |
| High-Danger Chances | 50.9% | 14th |
Though the Avalanche are led by offensive superstars, their results at five-on-five are mostly driven by defensive excellence despite what their 102 goals against (third-worst) might indicate. They rank third in shots against per-60-minutes (SA/60) and seventh in scoring chances against per-60 (SCA/60), but are around the middle of the pack by expected goals (xGA/60) and high-danger chances (HDCA/60) against per-60. They rank 17th or better in each of the corresponding offensive categories, and second in scoring chances for per-60 (SCF/60).
Some may point to the share of high-danger chances and highlight that as an area in need of improvement. Yet, the team sits just inside the top half leaguewide and are (surprise, surprise) receiving the worst high-danger SV% (HDSV%) in the league at five-on-five (.721). It’s lazy to point the finger at goaltending in most cases but the discrepancy between expected goals (seventh) and actual goals (25th) tells most, if not all, of the story.
Avalanche’s Remaining Schedule Is Manageable
Though the Avalanche are still slated to play eight of their final 55 games against Western Conference powers in the Minnesota Wild (four), Winnipeg Jets (three), and the Vegas Golden Knights (one), their remaining schedule isn’t too punishing.
According to Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule metric, the Avalanche’s rest-of-season schedule sits in the bottom-half by difficulty (19th). That’s good news since the Edmonton Oilers (15th), Calgary Flames (14th), Vancouver Canucks (ninth), and the Los Angeles Kings (seventh) all face above-average slates by opponent win percentage and will jockey with Colorado for one of the two wildcard spots.
Some may see the season as a lost cause and turn their gaze toward the 2025-26 season, but there are reasons to hope that an upturn in luck is around the corner. The team’s forward group will approach full strength at some point, and the goaltending will be addressed in one way or another. They’ve been the better team in many games despite the circumstances, so a quick turnaround is in the cards.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
