The fans of the Montreal Canadiens watched a roller coaster season in 2022-23. The start of the campaign saw a healthy lineup capable of fighting for a playoff spot, or at least, making it interesting. Then injuries happened, derailing the seasons of nearly every player in the professional ranks of the Habs’ system.
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The second full season of the rebuild is set to begin in 2023-24, to give the youth more opportunities. There is no lack of talent as the Canadiens are considered to have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL.
Definition of a Prospect
For this exercise, I will keep the definition of a prospect simple. It is a player 23 years old and under, who has played less than one full NHL season, or is assigned to play in a lower league, professional or amateur, and has not played a full season in the NHL previously. As for goaltenders, they are 25 years old or younger and have not played 50 NHL games. Using this as the basis to follow, names such as Cole Caufield, team captain Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach no longer apply.
Adding them to this pyramid would greatly improve the outlook of the prospect pool for the Canadiens, but using established NHL players would only act to artificially inflate the values or rankings of it.
Pyramid Tiers
A pyramid is just as subjective as any other traditionally used ranking system. What this approach will do is look at a prospect’s top-end potential as opposed to arguing why Prospect A is ranked fourth over Prospect B. Most players will never reach their top-end potential; however, the Canadiens’ management team has begun to focus on modernizing their player development plans with the creation of analytics and skill development departments. The hiring of a head coach that says that his focus is on a player’s ceiling demonstrates a new inclination toward building the future. With that, draftees and newly acquired players will have a better chance that some will meet, or maybe even exceed expectations. Some players may have improved their standing or fallen in the tiers based on performances and re-evaluation.
The tiers are as follows:
Tier 1 – Elite or top-line, top-pair talent
Tier 2 – Top-six forward, top-four defender, starting goaltender
Tier 3 – Third-line forward, bottom-pair defender, backup goaltender
Tier 4 – Role players, bottom-line forward, depth defenseman, or forward
Tier 5 – Minor league player used for call-ups
Tier 5
Minor-League Players Used for Call-Ups
This tier has several players who will not be long with the organization. Only Miguel Tourigny has a contract with the organization, having been signed to an American Hockey League (AHL) contract. Joe Vrbetic had a two-way AHL contract in 2022-23 and played most of the season in the ECHL. He has not signed a deal yet, but it is expected he signs and returns to the ECHL. It is highly unlikely any player in this tier gets an NHL contract offer as general manager (GM) Kent Hughes is likely to need as many of the 50 NHL contracts at his disposal to sign some players higher on the Canadiens’ depth chart.
Other names: Dmitri Kostenko and Blake Biondi
Tier 4
Role Players, Bottom-Line Forward, Depth Defenseman or Forward
At best, the hope is for some of these players to make it into the NHL and provide some depth in case of injuries or develop their skills to move up the pyramid if possible. 2023 fourth-round pick Florian Xhekaj falls in this category. He will return to the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) where it is expected he will play a top-six role on his club. If he can take a leap forward in his game like his brother Arber Xhekaj had in his 19-year-old season, Florian may move up the pyramid, but for now, he has only shown enough to fit in Tier 4.
Other names: Matthias Norlinder, Rem Pitlick, Yevgeny Volokhin , Jared Davidson, Rhett Pitlick, and Alexander Gordin, Ty Smilanic, Sam Harris, Luke Mittlestadt
Tier 3
Third-Line Forward, Bottom-Pair Defender, Backup Goaltender
Bogdan Konyushkov had 30 points in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) as a defenseman, which led him to be named a finalist as rookie of the year in that league. The overager will remain in Russia for a few more years, but the 20-year-old right-hander was a solid late-round gamble to take.
Another overager the Canadiens selected was undersized forward Rafael Harvey-Pinard. In his three years with the organization, he has done nothing but provide grit, energy, and even some offense. His 14 goals in 34 games played in the NHL last season earned him a two-year NHL contract, but he will have a difficult time earning a full-time role with the Habs this season due to his waiver exemption status and the log jam at forward. However, he has proven he can be a capable bottom-six NHL forward.
Other names: Cayden Primeau,Vinzenz Rohrer, Emmett Croteau, Cederic Guindon, Oliver Kapanen, Emil Heineman, Daniil Sobolev, William Trudeau, Petteri Nurmi, Quentin Miller, Filip Eriksson. Nicolas Beaudin
Tier 2
Top-6 Forward, Top-4 Defender, Starting Goaltender
This tier is very well populated thanks to some strong choices made on the draft floor as well as some additions via trade. Joshua Roy has reaffirmed his position in this tier after playing a significant role with Team Canada winning two gold medals at the World Junior Championship (WJC), and his offensive explosion in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL). Owen Beck is another who has steadily shown to be capable of growing his game, taking on any challenge on his way to his own WJC gold medal and playing a key role in helping the Peterborough Petes win the OHL title.
One player who has quietly climbed up the prospect rankings is Adam Engstrom. He is proving to be a highly reliable defensive player who has NHL size, and provides some physicality, but is also very mobile and plays well in transition. His offensive ability may limit him at the NHL level, but he can be a highly effective second-pairing defender who can play in any situation.
Kaiden Guhle straddles this tier and Tier 1. He had an injury-shortened NHL rookie campaign and is just shy of the 82 games played cut-off for this list, but what he has done in his short time has been outstanding. He has provided a level of mature defensive play well beyond what someone of 21 years of age would be expected to play. His mobility was put to the test by some of the best skaters in the world, such as Connor McDavid, and he was equal to the task of defending them. He is someone that a coach could pair with a more offensive player on a top pair but could easily anchor the second pair. If he can find more offense, he may become more than a number-three defender.
Other names: Arber Xhekaj, Filip Mesar, Sean Farrell, Justin Barron, Riley Kidney, Jesse Ylonen, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble, Luke Tuch, Logan Mailloux, Jan Mysac, Jacob Fowler
Tier 1
Elite or Top-Line, Top-Pair Talent
There are still no sure-fire “elite” players in the Canadiens’ prospect pool. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have impact players in their system.
At 6-foot-3 and 238 pounds, Juraj Slafkovsky, the 2022 first-overall pick, has shown that physically, he is ready for the NHL. However, he has had some trouble adjusting to the physicality and pace of the big leagues. Before his season-ending injury, he scored four goals and 10 points in 39 games played. This offseason has seen him return to Europe to work on very specific areas of his game that were exposed in his rookie season. Using cutting-edge technology and sports science, he is working to improve his cardio, mental abilities, and more. Bigger players tend to take longer to develop, so patience will be needed, but it is clear he still has a very high ceiling.
The next two names may become the Habs’ top pairing for many years. First, 2022 second-round pick Lane Hutson has rocketed up the pyramid tiers with his historic freshman season at Boston University scoring 48 points in 39 games, becoming the first NCAA defenseman in over 30 years to produce at such a high rate. He followed that up by winning bronze at the WJC then scored six points in nine games at the World Championship. Yes, there are flaws in his game defensively, mostly due to his size, but there is no doubt that he can be an offensive force.
Ideally, Hutson would have a big, mobile, highly intelligent right-handed partner on the blue line when he makes it to the NHL. Enter 2023 fifth-overall pick, David Reinbacher. The Austrian-born defender has excellent skating, mobility, and defensive instincts and is an excellent transitional defenseman who provides controlled zone exits and entries. His strength fits into the style of a modern NHL defenseman.
While many fans wanted the undersized Matvei Michkov to be the Canadiens’ pick, it would be hard to justify adding him to Caufield on the roster as size (when used as an overall metric on a roster) is still a factor in the NHL. Reinbacher was not the “sexy” pick at fifth overall, but he may turn out to be the more impactful one for the Habs. It is not easy to find the type of defenseman that he has the potential to become. While he may not become “elite” and win Norris Trophies as the top defenseman, he has all the tools to become an excellent playoff performer.
This is a snapshot of the Canadiens’ prospects and where they sit in their development process in the 2023 offseason. As the season rolls on, it is possible that a player who is currently stumbling finds a way to move up the pyramid. For a franchise in a rebuild, the top tier still needs to have an elite player added. But the work done in recent drafts has added significant talent to the second tier, the depth of which may prove useful in the future to add to the roster, but also become trade assets. The fan base anticipates another season without playoffs, but the expectation now is for the NHL club to be in the race and their AHL club to have playoff success. There will be no shortage of exciting hockey for Montreal’s supporters to watch this season.
