Don’t look now, but the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline is less than a month away (Mar. 8). As a result, it’s an appropriate time to evaluate where the Colorado Avalanche – currently vying for the Central Division crown – stand heading into the final three months and change of the 2023-24 season. As of this writing, they own a record of 33-18-4 (70 points) in 55 games and sit third in the Central by points percentage (PTS%).
The Dallas Stars (first with 75 points in 55 games) and the Winnipeg Jets (second with 71 in 52) make up the rest of the main division challengers, with all three sitting within five points of one another. The final stretch of the season is sure to be an unpredictable affair as the division remains very much up for grabs, as does the all-important prize of home-ice advantage in the playoffs.
For the Avalanche, the need to make a move at the deadline is two-fold. The team’s immediate goals are to avenge a disappointing first-round loss at the hands of the Seattle Kraken last season while continuing to capitalize on their star-studded core headlined by Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen.
Related: NHL Trade Bait List for 2024 Trade Deadline
Winning a second Stanley Cup championship in three seasons is within the realm of possibility, and general manager Chris MacFarland should do everything in his power to accomplish that goal, with a second-line center and a reliable backup goaltender likely his key targets.
With that context in mind, let’s dive into the assets that the Avalanche will have at their disposal as they navigate the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. The assets are ordered by value rather than the likelihood that they will be dealt at the deadline, though it’s within the realm of possibility that any one (or more) of these five bargaining chips are cashed in over the next month.
5. 2025 First-Round Draft Pick
When a team is in win-now mode, first-round draft picks are almost always made available in trade discussions as one of the most valuable forms of currency around the deadline. Research on draft pick value has suggested that late first-round picks are closer in value to early-to-mid-round second-round picks, spurring organizations to become more willing to part with them in trade talks.
Across the first three rounds of the next three drafts, the Avalanche own their first-round picks from 2024 to 2026, a second-round pick in 2026, and third-round selections in 2025 and 2026.
The Avalanche traded their first-round pick in 2022 in the deal to acquire Darcy Kuemper during the 2021 offseason but have otherwise made a selection in the first round in every draft since the 2012 edition. They held onto their 2023 first-round pick, drafted center Calum Ritchie, and acquired a second first-rounder after trading Alex Newhook to the Montreal Canadiens.
Since the Avalanche will be considered Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future, their first-round picks should be less valuable than the average. They currently sit ninth in the NHL by PTS%, which – barring a deep playoff run – would result in them receiving the 24th overall pick in the upcoming draft.
While Colorado is seemingly penciled in for a late first-rounder in the 2024 Draft, the uncertainty of a new campaign, the potential for injuries to key players, and a stronger draft class could increase the value of a first-rounder in the 2025 or 2026 editions. From the Avalanche’s point-of-view, their contention window and the age of some of their key figures could provide the impetus to part way with either one of their three upcoming first-round picks.
Mikko Rantanen (27), Alexandar Georgiev, Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon (all 28), Devon Toews (29), Gabriel Landeskog (31), and Josh Manson (32) are all aged 27 or older. They’re not declining veterans staring down retirement by any means, but they’re closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Despite the urgency to capitalize on their talented core, the Avalanche have shied away from trading their own first-round pick in recent seasons.
No team is guaranteed to win the Stanley Cup, no matter how many All-Star talents reside on their roster. It helps that the last time the Avalanche traded their first-rounder, things worked out pretty well in the playoffs. It should reinforce their attempts to bolster the roster, making it very likely that one of their next two first-rounders are traded for a player that can help them right now.
4. Mikhail Gulyayev, Defenseman
One of the Avalanche’s most valuable trade assets is 18-year-old Russian defenseman Mikhail Gulyayev, whom the team selected 31st overall in the 2023 NHL Draft.
Gulyayev played at least 12 games in Russia’s top junior league as well as the country’s top two professional leagues during his draft-eligible season. He’s staked out a regular role with one of the Kontinental Hockey League’s (KHL) top teams in Avangard Omsk as a teenager, tallying four goals and 12 points in 61 games in a league that is notoriously difficult on younger players.
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Given Russia’s absence on the global stage over the past few seasons, Gulyayev last represented his country at the 2021 Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He posted five points in five games as Russia won the tournament undefeated, ranking third among all defensemen in scoring while flashing his tantalizing potential as a puck-mover.
Like any player picked outside of the top five or 10, Gulyayev has some flaws that prevented him from being a higher selection despite his obvious offensive skill set and skating ability. In his midseason rankings of the top 100 prospects that have been drafted, The Hockey Writers’ own Logan Horn describes him as “a mobile defenseman who fits the mold of the modern puck-moving defender and power play quarterback” while also citing that “his defensive game looks underwhelming at times.”
Gulyayev’s game appears to fit the mold of what the Avalanche want out of their defensemen. However, the fact that they boast one of the deepest bluelines in the league makes it more likely that he is traded to address a more pressing and immediate positional need.
3. Sean Behrens, Defenseman
Sean Behrens is another figure in a long line of talented blueliners hailing from a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I hockey program. The 19-year-old defender was drafted by the Avalanche 61st overall in the second round of the 2021 Entry Draft and is considered one of the organization’s top prospects regardless of position.
Behrens has accumulated two goals and 23 points in 30 games with the University of Denver this season, bringing his career tally to eight goals and 73 points in 98 games over three seasons in the top collegiate circuit. The 20-year-old defender has been a regular on the international stage, making two appearances for the United States at the World Juniors. Most notably, he produced three points in seven games during the 2023 edition as they won the bronze medal.
Behrens does not cut an imposing figure at 5-foot-10 and under 180 pounds but possesses the ability to move the puck in transition and exercise effective gap control when defending off of the rush. Those tools are prerequisites for defensemen in the modern game, and the Illinois native would fit well within any blueline composition.
Given the Avalanche’s organizational depth at the position, Behrens could potentially be following in the path of Conor Timmins, Drew Helleson, and Justin Barron in recent years, with those three traded for NHL veterans who contributed to the team’s 2022 Stanley Cup win (Darcy Kuemper, Josh Manson, and Artturi Lehkonen). I ranked him higher than Gulyayev since he’s closer to making the NHL and would likely be more familiar to other general managers and scouting staff.
Shedding so many valuable assets in such a short time could eventually come back to bite the Avalanche as they rank in the bottom-third in almost all industry-renowned prospect pool rankings, including sitting 26th in Horn’s farm system rankings) but it gives the organization the opportunity to win multiple Cups in the MacKinnon era.
2. Calum Ritchie, Forward
Ritchie – the 27th-overall pick in the 2023 Draft – is already considered by many to be the top prospect in the Avalanche system, which is both high praise for the 19-year-old and an indictment on the organization’s depth outside the NHL. In spite of that, Ritchie has made the Avalanche look smart for taking a chance on him at the tail end of the first round despite a lingering shoulder injury that caused him to fall down the draft board.
Ritchie has been a man-possessed in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) after making his return from offseason shoulder surgery. He’s tallied 18 goals and 58 points in 36 games, with his 1.11 assists- (A/G) and 1.61 points-per-game (P/G) rates ranking third and sixth, respectively, among all OHL skaters. He’s taken on the mantle as a leader with the Oshawa Generals, and his two-way dominance is noticeable at the junior level.
Related: Avalanche Prospect Calum Ritchie Talks Draft, OHL & Future
At 6-foot-2 and 187 pounds, Ritchie already possesses an NHL-level frame to go along with his on-ice instincts and awareness. Among other things, prospect guru Scott Wheeler describes him as “a multifaceted playmaker…with superb puck control skill” who has shown the drive and commitment to be a reliable defensive player in all three zones (from “Colorado Avalanche are No. 26 in 2024 NHL prospect pool rankings”, The Athletic, 2/5/24).
Given Ritchie’s age and the team’s contention window, the Avalanche find themselves in a predicament when it comes to his future. He could finally be Colorado’s solution at second-line center for the remainder of the MacKinnon era. Still, he holds enough value that he could be the main piece in a trade bringing a veteran top-six center into the fold. I would try to keep Ritchie out of any potential deal for his positional value alone, but that could prove to be difficult if the right deal comes along.
1. Bowen Byram, Defenseman
Of all of the assets at the Avalanche’s disposal leading up to this year’s deadline, 22-year-old defenseman Bowen Byram arguably holds the most trade value. Byram currently holds a $3.85 million cap hit through the end of the 2024-25 season, and will be a restricted free agent (RFA) upon the expiry of his current contract.
Byram has scored at an 82-game pace of 13 goals and 36 points over his first four seasons in the NHL despite occupying a spot on the same blueline as Makar, Toews, and Samuel Girard. He enjoyed a breakout performance during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, ranking third among all Avalanche defensemen in points and average ice time as the team won the Stanley Cup. At that point, it looked like the sky was the limit for the young rearguard, though his development has been turbulent in recent seasons.
Recurring injury troubles (primarily related to suffering multiple concussions), inconsistent performances, and a lack of powerplay usage have kept Byram from reaching his full potential. The eight goals and 17 points that he’s tallied in 47 games this season represent the lowest rate of production since his initial 19-game introduction to the NHL during the 2020-21 season. The raw talent has been evident at times, but so have his defensive warts and frustrating issues with consistency.
Despite his recent stumbles, Byram’s age profile and tangible proof of stepping up on the sport’s biggest stage will have executives around the league betting that they can unlock his potential. The Avalanche would be selling low, and a Byram trade could result in a great deal of regret if he manages to reach the heights promised by his fourth-overall selection in the 2019 NHL Draft.
Even so, he is easily the most valuable of the players or picks that the Avalanche could float in trade talks and could be the key to acquiring the missing piece required for a future title run.
Avalanche’s Top Trade Assets: Honorable Mentions
Other than the aforementioned assets, the Avalanche will have a number of additional trade chips to offer selling clubs in trade talks at the deadline. These range from early-round draft picks to prospects still looking to break their way into the NHL lineup.
- Avalanche’s 2024 First-Round Draft Pick
- Avalanche’s 2026 Second-Round Draft Pick
- Jean-Luc Foudy, Forward, Colorado Eagles (AHL)
- Oskar Olausson, Forward, Colorado Eagles (AHL)
- Nikolai Kovalenko, Forward, Nizhny Novgorod Torpedo (KHL)
Avalanche Have Assets to Make Significant Trade at Deadline
Though the Avalanche continue to rank near the bottom of the NHL in terms of its prospect pool, the organization still possesses a number of intriguing assets to dangle in potential trade talks.
The front office will have to juggle multiple competing priorities and decide whether they value capitalizing the current Stanley Cup window open or extending the franchise’s competitive timeline further into the future.
It’s a fine line to walk, and MacFarland and company will have to make calculated decisions and concessions in trade talks, which will determine how aggressive they are in pursuing the 2024 Stanley Cup. Regardless of which path they take, the next month should prove to be an exciting time in Colorado.
