For the most part, the New Jersey Devils have conquered the ghosts of last season. Goaltending has been better, they’ve gotten off to quicker starts, and they’ve improved their defensive efforts.
But dating back to the start of last season, the Devils have lost 26 of their last 44 home contests. Only four of 32 NHL teams had fewer home wins last season (the Montreal Canadiens, Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks). They’ve now dropped two of three at home to start the 2024-25 campaign, and head coach Sheldon Keefe seemed immensely frustrated after their most recent loss to the Washington Capitals.
Devils Need to Flip the Script
After the contest, Keefe said, “That’s two out of three games on home ice that’s just been an unacceptable effort, so we’ll continue to address that…it starts with our level of competitiveness. For some reason, we haven’t brought the same level of urgency that we’ve brought into our road games into here. I’m new here still, so I’m still trying to figure out why that is.”
Even during their franchise-record 2022-23 season, the Devils dropped eight straight at home. It’s mostly been forgotten about since it was preceded by a 13-game winning streak, which gave the Devils some cushion. But you’d have to go back to 2021-22 to find a season where the Devils were better at home than on the road. And all the way back to 2017-18 to where that was true *and* they won more than they lost at home, too.
The bottom line, though, is that it’s early and there’s time for that narrative to change. It’s not fair to jump to full conclusions based on a three-game stint, and it’s key that Keefe is already acknowledging and addressing the issue.
Diving Into the Numbers
In order to attempt to garner a sense of why the struggle has occurred, some key statistics stood out. First off, their goaltending was dramatically worse at home last season. Vitek Vanecek, Akira Schmid, and Nico Daws combined for a dreadful .874 save percentage (SV%) – the worst home mark in the league. On the road, that number was .897% – 16th in the league.
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You would think that goes hand in hand with defense, but the numbers show that it was almost exclusively a goaltending issue. At home, the Devils faced a minus-20 goal differential despite generating 169 more scoring chances than the opposition, as per Natural Stat Trick) They were actually in the top half of the league in terms of preventing scoring chances, and did so without one of their best possession dominators in Dougie Hamilton for three quarters of their contests.
Some players last season admitted to gripping their sticks a little too tight, trying to be perfect in front of the home crowd. Their shooting percentage at home was 0.81% worse than the road, which doesn’t seem like much, but it extrapolates to about 10 extra goals. When combining that with goaltending that saved minus-20 goals below expected at the Prudential Center, that’s 30 total goals the Devils were held back from. In just 41 games, that makes a big difference.
Using some very rough estimations, with just league-average goaltending (at home) and shooting the same at home as on the road, last season’s results would have looked entirely different:
2023-24 goals for per game played (GF/GP): 3.22
2023-24 goals allowed per game played (GA/GP): 3.43
Estimate with avg. goaltending & same shooting: 3.39 GF/GP & 3.14 GA/GP
Teams with similar GF/GP and GA/GP stats after adjustment: Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-8), Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8) and Nashville Predators (47-30-5). The Devils were 38-39-5 instead.
Better Outlook Ahead
Thankfully for the Devils, they are now sporting an entirely-new goaltending tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, whose combined .910 SV% has brought the Devils to top ten in the league. However, it’s been .885% at home and for high-danger chances it’s .667%, which is actually .094% worse than last season. That’s obviously bound to change, unless Markstrom and Allen somehow both forget how to play their position entirely. Gotta love small samples.
Professor doing some teaching. pic.twitter.com/qgxMQPNz9N
— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) October 20, 2024
The Devils have the second-highest expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at home in the entire NHL this season – 61.57%. They’ve accrued 41 more scoring chances than the opposition and 13 more high-danger chances. Every team above 56% last season had 106 or more points in the standings.
If they’re able to play how they’ve been playing, stay healthy, and get their stars (Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes) to overcome their uncharacteristic slow starts, this Devils team will be just fine…even at home.
