Alexander Ovechkin turns 40 on Sept. 17, just as his 21st season in the NHL is about to begin. He is the greatest goal scorer in hockey history, a Stanley Cup champion, and he has won just about every award for which an offensive player is eligible.
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Last season, Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record for career goals in dramatic fashion, scoring his 895th goal against the New York Islanders as the regular season drew to a close. The goal was scored on the power play off a wrist shot from the top of the left wing circle, just above his “office” near the faceoff dot. His diving celebration captured the joy for which the Moscow-born winger has been known all of his career. It was the culmination of the season-long “Gr8 Chase” that kept Washington Capitals fans dialed into their captain all year, with a 16-day absence due to a broken leg thrown in to add to the suspense.
What Else Is There for Ovechkin to Prove?
It begs the question: what does Ovechkin still have to play for? The Capitals are not likely Stanley Cup contenders this season, and with the departure of T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom, it appears the team is more focused on the youth movement. He loves the game, that’s for certain, but without a historic, tangible goal to work toward, what kind of performance can we expect from the Great 8?
Since the Capitals’ Stanley Cup victory over the Vegas Golden Knights in 2018, Gretzky’s record was looked to as the last great honor for Ovechkin to achieve. It has been widely speculated that this will be his final season in the NHL, as it is the last year of the five-year contract extension that he signed with the Capitals in 2021.
How Prepared Is Ovechkin for His 21st Season?
In early July, Ovechkin began posting videos on his Telegram account showing him working out with longtime trainer Pavel Burlachenko. Ovechkin has admitted that he’s not much of a fan of offseason training, but a mid-summer commitment to getting back in the gym is a possible sign that he intends to give us one more spectacular show of a season. Last year, Ovechkin’s torrid start of 15 goals in his first 18 games was largely attributed to his offseason workout regimen. It was reported that he slimmed down from 258 to 225 pounds before the season started.
For NHL players lucky enough to play until the age of 40 and beyond, offensive production is just one of the many attributes that may be in decline. For those who make a living lighting the lamp, it is particularly difficult. Wayne Gretzky retired at 38, Mario Lemieux made it to January of his 40-year-old season and hung up his skates with only seven goals in 26 games. Brett Hull’s 40-year-old season was cancelled due to the lockout – he returned the next season, but only played five games before retiring. Many of the greats have called it a career when they realized that they could no longer perform at an elite level. In NHL history, only 21 players have reached double digits in scoring during their 40-year-old season, and only four have broken the 30-goal plateau after turning 40.
The Ageless Gordie Howe
During the 1968-69 season, a 40-year-old Gordie Howe scored 44 goals, the same number that Ovechkin scored last season at the age of 39. Howe’s Red Wings weren’t exactly setting the league on fire that season either, finishing fifth in their division and missing the playoffs. Gone were Howe’s former Production Line members Sid Abel and Ted Lindsay, who made up one of the most famous scoring lines in hockey.
What’s remarkable about Howe’s 44-goal season in 1968-69 is that he finished with 59 assists and 103 points, as well as a plus-45 plus/minus rating. On a lackluster team, he put together a complete offensive effort and lifted the play of everyone around him. Amazingly, his 40-year-old season was the only time he cracked the century mark for points in a season. Last season, Ovechkin added 29 assists to his 44 goals for 73 points and a plus-15 rating. He hasn’t broken 100 points since his fifth season in the league.
Can the Great 8 Match Mr. Hockey’s 44 Goals?
To break Howe’s record of 44 goals at the age of 40 is a tall order, even for the great Ovechkin. Ovechkin’s shooting percentage last season was 18.6%, the highest in his career, and three percentage points higher than Howe’s in 1968-69. Ovechkin caught lightning in a bottle with his linemates Dylan Strome and Aliaksei Protas, who also had career years in offensive production. If he had not been injured, he would have been on pace to score 55 goals.
As he has aged, Ovechkin’s style of play has changed. No longer able to use his speed to burn defenders, he relies more on his canniness in getting to open ice to unleash his still-impressive shot. Last season, he scored 14 goals on the power play, five more than Howe scored in 1968-69. He also diversified his portfolio by driving the net more for deflections, standing in front for tip-ins, and putting himself in a better position to hammer in rebounds.
What Can We Expect Out of Ovechkin at 40?
If we remove last season’s statistics from the equation, a season that was defined by a superhuman display of will by the Capitals’ captain, his goal-scoring numbers are on the decline. Coming out of the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, he scored 50, 42, and 31 goals before his stellar effort last season. Over the course of his career, his average shooting percentage is 13.1%, a solid 5% difference from last season. There have been years like 2010-11 where it dipped to a career low 8.7%, but then again, he was getting a lot more shots back then. So, unless he continues to score on nearly one out of every five shots, what are his chances of beating Howe’s 44?
About his future in the NHL, Ovechkin hasn’t made his plans clear. After the 2025-26 season, he may be off to the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), easing into retirement, starting a sports empire, or continuing to play for the Capitals in pursuit of 1,000 career goals. Those who have written Ovechkin off in the past have regretted it, and I don’t intend to start just because his odometer turned over.
