Flames’ Potential Roster Collapse Could Benefit the Canadiens

Nothing but bad news seems to be surrounding the Calgary Flames as we inch closer to the 2023 NHL Entry Draft and free agency. Not long after Craig Conroy took over as general manager of the team, his intent was to get a clearer picture of what each and every one of the seven 2024 unrestricted free agents (UFA) was thinking. That is what he has done, but to the chagrin of the Flames, seems to have only gotten responses he wasn’t looking for, meaning that some of these key players don’t appear to want to re-sign with the team.

2023 NHL Entry Draft Guide Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli Banner

Insider information reveals that the Flames got the most direct answer from Noah Hanifin, who indicated that he clearly doesn’t plan on signing an extension. Mikael Backlund is also leaning that way but has yet to give a definite response. The third player, and what the Flames’ offseason hinges on is Elias Lindholm, who Conroy laid it all out on the table for with a big long-term offer. There has been no response yet, but the feeling around the league is that he doesn’t want to re-sign either. Elliotte Friedman also reported that there is word that Calgary has made Tyler Toffoli available for trade.

Calgary Flames Celebrate
Calgary Flames Celebrate a Goal (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

So how does this impact the Montreal Canadiens? Well, they happen to own the Flames’ first-round pick in 2024, 2025, or 2026, depending on a number of factors in the long list of conditions regarding the Matthew Tkachuk trade to the Florida Panthers and the Sean Monahan cap dump to the Canadiens. One way or another, Montreal is going to get another highly valuable pick they can use soon.

Canadiens Can Win Big Time

There are many stipulations to determine which draft pick the Canadiens get from the Flames. The earliest potential pick that they can take, but shouldn’t, is the Flames’ 2024 first-round pick if it happens to be between 20 and 32. They have the choice to take this pick, but only if the Flames are a playoff team next season. That is looking more and more unlikely as their four most impactful 2024 free agents seem to be on their way out.

2022 NHL Draft Lottery Montreal Canadiens First Overall
Bill Daly announces the Montreal Canadiens’ #1 overall draft position during the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery (Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)

So the big question is how high do the Canadiens score on the draft pick coming from Calgary? There are two ways in which they can get a top-10 pick in 2025 from the Flames. If the Panthers’ 2025 first-round pick is not a lottery pick, it is transferred to the Flames, thereby sending the later of the two first-round picks in the Flames’ possession in 2025 to the Canadiens. That could end up being a top-10 pick. The other way is if the Panthers’ 2025 pick does end up being a lottery pick and the 2026 first-round pick is transferred to the Flames, that pick could be as high as second overall.

Related: Flames: 3 Potential Trade Destinations for Noah Hanifin

The Flames appear to be in shambles right now, but nothing has been set in stone yet. Yes, there are trustworthy reports that certain high-class players won’t re-sign, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to dive into a full rebuild. It definitely is a possibility though to rebuild for a few years. That’s what the Canadiens are hoping for, as it would get them the best return possible if somehow Florida also struggles. It might be a long shot to think that the 2023 Stanley Cup finalist and a team that won the Pacific Division in 2021-22 could both miss the playoffs in two years time and have potentially high picks, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the NHL.