The 2024 All-Star Break was filled with news and headlines, yet the biggest thing to happen was the Elias Lindholm trade. The Calgary Flames traded their star center to the Vancouver Canucks in the first blockbuster deal of the season. The Canucks gave up a significant haul for Lindholm and sent the message that they are going all-in to win the Stanley Cup this season.
Related: Flames’ Conroy Looking Like a Much Better GM Than Treliving
The message the Flames sent by moving Lindholm was the opposite, they are ready to rebuild, and this trade could be the first of many moves to reset their roster. The Tyler Toffoli trade in the 2023 offseason, which allowed them to acquire Yegor Shargovich, who made an immediate impact, signaled they were resetting their roster but not tearing it down. The trade allowed them to put together a team that entered the 2023-24 season with the hope of being competitive. Moving Lindholm is the start of that retooling process.
For a fanbase that has gone years without a competitive team, this is a gut punch and a tough blow, not only for the rest of the 2023-24 season but the upcoming season as well. That said, for first-year general manager (GM) Craig Conroy, the move had to happen. This team has stumbled all season, and the only way to have success was to start the rebuild.
The New York Islanders are a team at a similar crossroads heading into the trade deadline. Unlike the Flames, they are in the middle of the playoff picture at the moment, but a tough stretch could see them forced into a rebuild. Brock Nelson is their best trade chip. He could bring back a significant return, but the message to the fans would be that they aren’t a competitive team anymore. The Islanders had a contending window under head coach Barry Trotz, reaching the Stanley Cup Semifinal in 2020 and 2021, and have been an average team since then. Trading away their star center would signal that the window has officially closed.
The Islanders face the Flames on Feb. 10, and interestingly both teams enter the game on hot streaks. The Islanders have two wins in a row, and the Flames have a three-game winning streak even after trading away their star. Both teams are rolling and although they could sneak into the playoffs, their rosters are similarly constructed, and Conroy might be thinking ahead as a GM.
If the Islanders choose to trade Nelson, the best time to do so is ahead of the 2024 Trade Deadline, when his value is at its highest. The Flames provided a good outline for how to get the most value for their star player, notably with the return they received in the Lindholm trade.
Lindholm’s Significant Return
Lindholm allowed the Flames to field five pieces in the return from the Canucks. Along with receiving a young NHL-ready player in Andrei Kuzmenko, they landed a first and a fourth-round selection in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, and two prospects, Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo. Lindholm is an elite center, who has 214 goals and 333 assists in 793 career games, but he’s a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA). It makes the move a high-risk one considering the Canucks could come up short of the Cup and lose him in free agency, and without all the future assets, see their roster set back for years to come.
Nelson is a great top-six center but isn’t in the same tier as Lindholm. He isn’t a rental either. The veteran Islanders’ skater is a free agent after the 2024-25 season, and it allows a team that acquires him at the 2024 Trade Deadline to compete this season and the next one, as well. That alone can turn Nelson into a more valuable addition at the upcoming trade deadline if the Islanders choose to move him.
Bo Horvat was traded during the 2023 All-Star Break from the Canucks to the Islanders, a move that was the blockbuster and shocker of the break. The top-line center and elite goal scorer was moved for three pieces, with the Islanders sending Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty, and their 2023 first-round selection in the deal. That trade felt like the standard for a star being moved at the deadline. It turns out, that the price tag, especially with the right suitors, is only going up. The Flames found a team willing to move five pieces for a top-six center, and Nelson will field a similar return, or he likely won’t be traded at all.
Why Nelson’s Situation is Different
Nelson is older than Lindholm, and it makes him a less intriguing player to acquire. While Lindholm is 29 and still has a few prime years left, Nelson is 32 and at the backend of his prime. Recent seasons would suggest otherwise since he scored 37 goals in 2021-22 and 36 in 2022-23, but a dropoff is anticipated at some point. The age factor also comes into play, considering the veteran might retire an Islander since he’s one of the icons of the franchise.
When Nelson’s contract expires, it’s more likely he will take a significant pay cut to remain on the team. The Islanders drafted him in the first round of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, and the homegrown talent has spent 11 seasons on the NHL roster. In today’s game, it’s rare to find a player who starts and finishes a career with one team, and Nelson has the chance to do that.
He has a significant place in the team’s recent history. Nelson developed when the Islanders were one of the worst teams in the league, never contending and flailing season after season. He hit his stride as a top-six center when the team became a contender and remained a focal point of the deep playoff runs. He’s not Mike Bossy or Bryan Trottier, but he’s sure to have his No. 29 go up in the rafters someday.
All this makes him a player that GM Lou Lamoriello can’t trade unless he’s forced to. Lindholm was a good skater for the Flames but not an icon. Nelson is on track to become one of the recent Islanders to be remembered as one. John Tavares was on track to become an icon but left in the 2018 offseason. Josh Bailey had a career that looked like it would be a great one on the Island, but his dropoff prevented him from retiring with that status. Nelson, barring a surprising career collapse, will become that player.
Islanders Enter a Pivotal Stretch
The Islanders must keep winning. They defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 on Feb. 5, their first regulation win under new head coach Patrick Roy, and then stomped the Tampa Bay Lightning on Feb. 8, making it look like the season was turning a corner. If that’s the case, the Islanders won’t trade Nelson, and on the contrary, Lamoriello will make a move to acquire talent at the deadline.
The team stumbled into the All-Star Break, and now they look like they’ve found their footing. Since Roy was hired, the Islanders have played disciplined and structured hockey, proving they are still capable of competing for the Cup. If Roy can’t fix this team’s issues, then nobody can, and the roster itself will need a reset.
If an overhaul is needed, it will start with Nelson. It will be tough to see him in another uniform, but it’s become commonplace in the NHL. Patrick Kane was the face of the Chicago Blackhawks franchise, leading them to three Stanley Cup titles, yet he was traded to the New York Rangers at the 2023 Trade Deadline. Claude Giroux was a staple of the Philadelphia Flyers’ top six, and he was traded to the Florida Panthers at the 2022 Trade Deadline. Even Wayne Gretzky, the greatest to ever play the game, was traded in the 1988 offseason. The bottom line is that any player can be traded and will be if the deal ultimately benefits the team.
What a Nelson Trade Might Look Like
A few teams could look to add a top-six center at the deadline. The Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, and Dallas Stars are looking to make a run at the Cup and need help up the middle. Nelson might not field five pieces like Lindholm, but he can provide the Islanders with at least one NHL-ready player, a prospect, and one or two draft selections in a trade.
A return like that could set the Islanders up for a quick turnaround or a long-term project depending on how Lamoriello wants to approach a turnaround. Ideally, the veteran GM will keep the team competitive, but a blockbuster deal suddenly gives the Islanders plenty of avenues.
The Lindholm trade set the tone, and other teams should be expected to follow suit with their star players. The Islanders are playing with energy and look to climb up to the top of the Eastern Conference in the coming weeks. However, the Lindholm deal allows Lamoriello to have a plan in place in case things fall apart.
