Over the last two seasons, the man advantage had felt like anything but for the Philadelphia Flyers. The 2022-23 season was the team’s first without long-time captain Claude Giroux, the NHL’s leading power-play scorer of the 2010s, with his 289 points one ahead of Alex Ovechkin. It was also the team’s first season with Rocky Thompson running the unit after he joined head coach John Tortorella’s inaugural coaching staff.
No one was expecting brilliance with the team’s overall talent level slipping, especially when Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson missed the entire 2022-23 season due to injury. Better than last place would have been nice, though, as the Flyers brought up the rear with a 15.6% power play. Things were even more painful last season, as the Flyers were last by a wide margin, finishing nearly three percent worse than the 31st-ranked Columbus Blue Jackets. That included a brutal 0-23 finish to the season; one well timed goal could have catapulted the Flyers into the playoffs.
The organization didn’t take those struggles lightly during the offseason. While Thompson was retained, the Flyers held meetings to discuss strategies for improvement that included insights from John LeClair, Patrick Sharp, and Dany Heatley. That trio combined for 331 power play goals in their playing careers, giving them first-hand knowledge of what works and what doesn’t. The arrival of Matvei Michkov, arguably the team’s most talented prospect since (at least) Giroux, also figured to be a boost.
The good news is they aren’t at the very bottom of the barrel anymore. After 23 games, the Flyers are 24th in the league with a 16.9% success rate, putting them slightly ahead of last year’s Western Conference finalists, the uber-talented Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. That would suggest an upward trajectory, but it’s not quite that simple.
Michkov Is Thriving
At five-on-five, the Flyers expected Michkov to deal with growing pains. Learning how to battle against the best players in the world and handle the NHL’s break-neck pace is tough for any player, especially a 19-year-old. That’s largely how things have played out: Michkov hasn’t driven play yet (he has a 44.96% expected goals share) but his hockey sense is evident, and he just scored his second five-on-five goal of the season on Monday night.
On the power play, Michkov has looked right at home. His first two NHL goals came on the power play on Oct. 15 against the Edmonton Oilers. His nine power-play points are tied for 18th in the NHL and his four goals are tied for 16th. He’s more than doubling the next-best rookie in power play scoring (the Montreal Canadiens’ Lane Hutson is second with four points).
Michkov has done a great job of finding open ice and looks comfortable on the power play as both a distributor and a scorer. His points have come from a wide range of areas, scoring in the high slot and at the net front while setting up tallies from below the goal line and the middle of the ice. Maybe in time Michkov will settle into a specific role like Giroux did on the left half-wall, but for now, his versatility is a plus.
Creating Chances Still a Struggle
Hopes of the power play improving were high at the start of the season. The Flyers scored five power-play goals in their first four games. They tied last season’s five-on-three goal total by scoring one on Nov. 5. Through eight games, the team was scoring at a legitimately strong 25.8% clip.
However, they were a bit fortunate to grade out so well. During that stretch, the Flyers were 20th in the NHL at generating expected goals per 60 minutes on the man advantage and had the league’s sixth-best shooting percentage at over 20%. Last season the Lightning led the league with an 18.56 shooting percentage on the power play and the Flyers don’t exactly have Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman equivalents. Some regression was due to come, especially if the Flyers couldn’t improve their chance creation.
Over the last month, things have started to once again crater. While the Flyers’ raw xGF/60 numbers haven’t fallen much (7 to 6.85), they’ve dropped from 20th to 27th in the overall picture. Combine that with a plummeting shooting percentage (9.3%, 29th) and you’ve got a 4/40 dry spell that puts the team in that span at… dead last. Again.
To make matters worse, only two of those goals have come at five on four, two fewer than any other team. Being good in other power-play situations is important — Michkov’s beautiful overtime winner on Saturday came at four-on-three, and the Flyers racked up a ton of chances on an unsuccessful four-on-three on Monday. But teams spend the vast majority of their power-play time in five-on-four situations and so that’s what evaluation should center on.
Last season, the Flyers struggled mightily at getting to the dangerous areas off the ice on the power play, as this chart from HockeyViz shows. This season, they’ve actually done a great job of getting shots from right in front of the net. But the slot remains a major struggle as do the typical one-timer areas from the left and right circles.
While Michkov has looked good in power-play situations, the team’s other young players have struggled to make a difference in those opportunities. Players like Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee, and Bobby Brink have all had their struggles at five-on-five this season, with Frost and Brink spending some time in the press box. Still, Michkov has largely been able to flip the switch when the Flyers go up a man, everyone else has been a passenger. Michkov and Travis Konecny have combined for nine of the team’s 12 power-play goals (Tyson Foerster has two and Jamie Drysdale has the other).
Things arguably could be worse, too, as the Flyers have surrendered the sixth most xGA/60 while on the power play. They’ve allowed two short-handed goals, half as many as last season’s total which was tied with Dallas for second fewest in the NHL, trailing only the New York Islanders. The Flyers like to attack in transition at five-on-five but seem uncomfortable with handling the more cycle-based structure off a power play. Rush chances can catch an opposing penalty kill off balance, but it can also lead to unforced errors that go back the other way.
Something Has to Give
It’s unlikely that any sort of major personnel change is coming to the Flyers. There’s potential for a rumored Frost trade to happen at some point, but it’s rare for a non-contender to make a big addition during the season, and it should be easier for general manager Daniel Briere to weaponize the team’s three first-round picks once their places have been finalized. The same goes for a coaching staff — Tortorella seems to like Thompson, although another full season of struggles could be the point of no return.
Related: Flyers’ Travis Konecny Makes Matvei Michkov a Better Player
The Flyers have a lot of young talent set to join their power play in coming seasons such as Jett Luchanko and Oliver “Bumper” Bonk. Putting them in position to succeed from the jump is paramount to their development. The Flyers figured out a way to do that with Michkov, or at the very least haven’t gotten in his way. But they need to come up with answers soon.
Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick
