The Tampa Bay Lightning will be back in action this season with a new dynamic. The team added and subtracted this offseason, with players like Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev leaving and Jake Guentzel and J.J. Moser coming in.
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With all the changes, we will review some of the roster’s critical players’ performance from last season, their roles and expectations for this season. Today, we will cover one of the Lightning’s new offensive weapons — Cam Atkinson, who came over from the Philadelphia Flyers.
Recapping Atkinson’s 2023-24 Campaign
Atkinson was a solid middle-six forward for Flyers head coach John Tortorella last season after missing the entire 2022-23 campaign with an injury. He ranked eighth in points among Flyers forwards, notching 13 goals and 28 points in 70 games. Atkinson may have been a little unlucky last season with just a 7.81 shooting percentage (Sh%) at 5-on-5, the third-lowest of his career. But he spent the season juggling between numerous lines with players like Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, and Joel Farabee. However, he found the most success offensively with defensive center Sean Couturier.
Tortorella deployed Atkinson all over the lineup last season but always had him play against the opponent’s top lines, which probably wasn’t the best decision given that his defensive game is depleting with age. While he performed well in a small 94-minute sample size on the penalty kill, his 5-on-5 defensive game was not up to speed to face some of the NHL’s elite offensive talents. Atkinson often played the second or third most minutes a night amongst Flyers’ forwards while sometimes being buried in the bottom six. We hope head coach Jon Cooper will have a more consistent role for Atkinson in Tampa Bay.
The 35-year-old has created offense off the rush with his speed and soft hands throughout his career and translated his zone entries into passing plays and scoring chances last season. Adding passes on the attack means his scoring should increase.
Corey Sznajder at All Three Zones found that rush opportunities following an offensive-zone pass are 2.3x more likely to covert and 5x more likely to face a non-set goaltender. Atkinson ranked in the 99th percentile of rush offense per 60 amongst forwards last season in Sznajder’s dataset. He was also elite in the general offense category, ranking in the upper echelon of scoring chance assists and contributions.
Atkinson’s Role for the 2024-25 Season
With the top line of Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov set in stone, the rest of the Lightning forward core is wide open with opportunities. Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli will remain together on the second line, as the duo found remarkable chemistry at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill last season. However, Atkinson is unlikely to be the player Cooper plays with the young dominant duo. While Daily Faceoff projects Atkinson to start the season on the second-line right wing, Conor Sheary continues to take reps with the second line during training camp.
These top-six combinations leave Atkinson in a third-line role with two-way center Nick Paul. The former Ottawa Senators forward is in a similar position to Atkinson, as both are fantastic third-line options but not up to speed with the pace of the top-six. With all the injuries Atkinson has endured, the veteran is best fit for a third-line scoring role.
Plus, we found Atkinson post his best possession numbers with a player like Couturier in Philadelphia last season. When he was out with skilled wingers like Tippet and Farabee, the line’s defensive results tanked. Atkinson played the Lightning’s first pre-season game with Paul and Mitchell Chaffee on his line, which looks like the Lightning’s combination heading into opening night.
Expectations for Atkinson’s 2024-25 Season
Expect Atkinson’s offensive numbers to look similar to last season. A stat line of around 15 goals and 30-35 points is reasonable for his projected third-line right-wing role. However, if he lands a spot on the second line, don’t rule out a bounce-back 40-point campaign if he can remain healthy. He’s a reliable middle-six veteran on a cost-effective deal for Tampa Bay. Atkinson is a fantastic short-term depth pick-up for the Lightning this season, which we are excited to see in action.
