The bottom six is unpredictable. That was the first thought that came to mind when it came to projecting the New York Islanders lineup. They have a top-heavy group that will be led by the usual names both at the forward position and on defense. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.
Related: Report: Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin Battling Injury This Offseason
The Islanders have a low ceiling yet the forward unit has a chance to be a great one and the same can be said about the defense. However, that will only happen if the Islanders find the right combinations, notably with reliable left-wing options, scoring depth, and defensive pairings. That’s what my colleague Michael Ostrower and myself will try to do.
Islanders Forward Unit
Anthony Duclair was the big addition as the Islanders signed him to a four-year deal this summer. They also brought in Maxim Tsyplakov who looks to carry over that scoring touch that made him tough to stop overseas. Otherwise, the forward unit looks more or less the same unless some prospects prove they are ready for the NHL level and breakthrough at some point.
Mike’s Projections: Chalk With Duke & Maxim Sprinkled In
Anthony Duclair – Bo Horvat – Mathew Barzal
Anders Lee – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri
Pierre Engvall – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Simon Holmstrom
Kyle MacLean – Casey Cizikas – Maxim Tsyplakov
There is some intrigue in having Anders Lee playing on the third line and swapping with Pierre Engvall. However, this looks like the best fit. The duo of Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat will lead the top line while the Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri connection leads the second line. The question is if the third line will provide enough offense and it’s why finding wingers who can take advantage of Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s passing is crucial.
The only other question is what the fourth line looks like, especially with Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin no longer on the roster. Ironically, the Islanders might look to keep that line as a defense-first one which means Kyle MacLean is on the left wing while Tsyplakov and possibly Hudson Fasching play on the right wing. Tsyplakov has a high upside as a scorer but there’s a lot of unknown surrounding him and it’s why he’ll likely play a minimal role when the season begins and work his way up.
Michael’s Projections: Making Great Even Greater
Duclair – Horvat – Barzal
Engvall – Nelson – Palmieri
Lee – Pageau – Tsyplakov
MacLean – Cizikas – Holmstrom
The Barzal and Horvat connection is a given and with Duclair adding speed and skill to the other wing, it makes sense for him to round out the top line. While Engvall struggled last season in the offensive zone, he’s a key contributor in transition and it makes him a great fit on the second line. Nelson will lead the rush and having Palmieri and Engvall as shooters on his wing is the smart move compared to playing a slower skater, like Lee, in that role.
Speaking of Lee, he moves to the third line which is filled with misfits or the odd ones in the forward unit. He can turn back the clock and become a reliable finisher for Pageau, who is a pass-first player. The duo isn’t expected to generate a lot of offense but with Tsyplakov being the wild card, this line can surprise. Tsyplakov is playing his first season at the NHL level and it’s why he’ll start the season on the third line but he’s a scorer who can both benefit from Pageau’s passing and become a top-six winger by season’s end.
For the fourth line, the focus will be on defense. Holmstrom and MacLean are versatile, with MacLean notably centering the fourth line last season and it gives the Islanders the ability to rotate skaters in and out of the lineup to keep the fourth line well-rested. With Fasching being thrown in as the extra skater in the rotation, the line is great on the defensive end of the ice and will give the team an improved penalty kill. The fourth line is far from the most exciting but it rounds out the forward unit and is an effective one.
Islanders Defense
Last season, the Islanders didn’t have a great defense for the first time in a long time. The unit struggled and allowing 2.99 goals per game, it nearly cost the team a playoff spot. This season, the defense is expected to bounce back with Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov leading the way.
Mike: Let Dobson & Romanov Take Over
- Noah Dobson – Alexander Romanov
- Ryan Pulock – Adam Pelech
- Scott Mayfield – Mike Reilly
The Islanders have a new duo that has replaced Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock as their top pair. Dobson is the best two-way defenseman on the team and Romanov has turned into the best stay-at-home option as a hard-hitting shot-blocking but disciplined skater. With this in mind, the Islanders should give them more ice time and allow them to take over games.
Pelech and Pulock meanwhile will remain on the same pair but with decreased roles. They aren’t the same shutdown duo as they were during the back-to-back semifinal runs but they are still capable of limiting any offense. Then there’s the Mike Reilly and Scott Mayfield duo, which will be tasked with preventing the unit from falling apart. A lot of pressure falls on Mayfield to bounce back after a forgettable 2023-24 but if he can, this unit can become something special.
Michael: Deja Vu
- Dobson – Romanov
- Pulock – Pelech
- Mayfield – Reilly
There’s a good argument to split Dobson and Romanov up but it’s the wrong one. The two played over 700 minutes together last season and carried the defense with both skaters working off each other’s strengths. With Dobson being the offensive-minded defenseman and Romanov thriving in the defensive zone, it doesn’t make sense to split them up.
The same can be said about Pelech and Pulock. They’ve both battled injuries in recent seasons and because of it, they haven’t played together as much compared to the deep playoff runs. It’s not a matter of whether they should play together, it’s a matter of if they can as Pelech and Pulock will look to stay on the ice for the full season.
Then there’s Mayfield, who after signing a seven-year contract in the 2023 offseason, had a disastrous season. He’s still under contract for the next six seasons so the Islanders need him to succeed. The hope is that he plays well alongside Reilly, another veteran who was a pleasant surprise last season and looks to give the Islanders a passable third pair alongside Mayfield.
A Goaltending Consensus
There’s no dispute that Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov will be the two goaltenders leading the way in the net. The question is what type of split head coach Patrick Roy will roll with. Sorokin is the starter but last season was a reminder that he can’t be overworked. He can start 50 or 55 games but Varlamov must receive his fair share of starts to keep both goaltenders sharp throughout the 82-game season grind.
There’s a path for the Islanders to take where they find the right combinations and end up as one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the inability to find chemistry, especially in the bottom six, can leave the Islanders one step behind. This team has a low ceiling but if everything clicks, they will be in prime position for a deep playoff run.
