Hockey fan’s favorite pastime is to make fun of the New York Islanders for their boring playstyle. While Islanders supporters could brush it off for a time, thanks to the team’s past success providing an easy counterpoint, that is no longer an option. With blown lead after blown lead, the jokes practically write themselves, and the Islanders are nearing a point where excuses are no longer viable.
Islanders Concerning Stats
Thanks to NHL.com and Islanders’ statistician Eric Hornick, some eye-opening stats have emerged amid the team’s 8-9-5 start to the season.
In 22 games this season, the Islanders have been either tied or leading at the second intermission in 16 of those games. In the six games where they were trailing after 40 minutes, their record stands at 1-4-1.
When it comes to third periods, the Islanders have been outscored 33-20. In contrast, they have allowed just 26 total goals in the first and second periods combined. They’ve only scored a game-tying goal in the third period three times while conceding eight. Additionally, when holding a two-goal lead, they’ve allowed the next goal more often than they’ve scored it.
In 22 games this season, the Islanders have surrendered 33 goals in the third period.
— Islanders Videos (@SNY_Islanders) November 26, 2024
The Islanders have had 30 total goals against them in the first & second period and overtime. pic.twitter.com/IqexkTY0Bd
The Islanders are 0-8-2 this season when scoring two or fewer goals. Despite stellar performances from their goalies—such as 30 saves on 31 shots against the Calgary Flames on Nov. 19, 24 saves on 25 shots against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Oct. 30, or Ilya Sorokin’s 29 saves on 30 shots against the St. Louis Blues on Oct. 17—they have failed to win these tight games, owning a 4-3-5 record in one-goal games.
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In their last six games, the Islanders have led in the third period each time but have only come away with two victories. When scoring first, their record is 4-3-3, meaning they have lost more games than won after scoring the opening goal. For comparison, teams that score first in the NHL have historically won 67% of the time, but that has not been the case for the Islanders.
Takeaways from the Stats
No fan needs to look at the numbers to know it, but the list of troubling stats for the Islanders could go on. The team has continued to offer excuses, insisting there is a “belief” in the group, yet their performances do not reflect that sentiment. At some point, the blind confidence must stop, and the team needs to make changes.
Takeaway 1: Fans Need to Be Engaged
The Islanders spent much of the start of their season on the road, but now they’re at the start of a lengthy homestand, with six of their next nine games at home. The energy in the arena plays a crucial role in a team’s success, and that energy is fueled by positive morale. When the team repeatedly blows third-period leads, fans are more likely to boo or call for general manager Lou Lamoriello to be fired than cheer. While easier said than done, if the Islanders hope to maintain any success, they can’t afford to keep losing.
Takeaway 2: The Fourth Line is Bad
22 games in with the Islanders’ new fourth line and it is safe to say, the new formula is not working. The most common fourth-line combination has been Matt Martin, Kyle MacLean, and Oliver Wahlstrom, who have just over 50 minutes logged together. In nine games, they possess a 33.3 goals percentage (G%) and 30.8 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to MoneyPuck. That is the third-lowest xG% in the NHL of any line combination.
It is not like the Islanders are getting a defensive presence from their fourth line, either, as the Martin, MacLean, and Wahlstrom trio has conceded 2.32 goals against per 60 minutes, the highest of any Islanders line combination with more than 10 minutes together. The Islanders’ leading point producer from the fourth line is Oliver Wahlstrom, who has two points in 18 games, so there is clearly no offense there, either. They have been a liability on both ends of the ice to begin the season, and none of the players have been impactful on special teams, either.
Takeaway 3: Special Teams Continue to Struggle
Without the scorebug ticking down the minutes on the power play, fans would probably have no idea the Islanders are even on the man advantage for most of their power plays this season. Their success rate currently stands at 12.70%, the lowest in the NHL. With just eight power-play goals so far, they also have the third-lowest expected goals per 60 minutes in the league at 4.41.
The penalty kill has been just as bad, with the Islanders ranking second to last in the league with a 70.21% success rate, even lower than last season’s 71.49% success rate that finished last in the league. This season, the Islanders have conceded 8.66 expected goals per 60 minutes on the penalty kill, the fourth most in the NHL. Part of the blame can be pitted on Adam Pelech and Alexander Romanov for missing time with injuries, but that is still not enough.
There is a lot more to be said regarding the Islanders’ recent struggles, but those are my three main takeaways. It is evident this team has the potential to win, as seen in their strong performances during the first and second periods. However, by the time the third period rolls around, fans would likely feel more confident entering it tied. The frustration is palpable among fans, and to avoid alienating their fan base, the organization must address these issues quickly if they want to stay competitive. How they will do so is unknown, but continuing to tell the media “We need to continue exactly what we’re doing” is not the way to do it.
