Despite enduring many injuries last season, the New York Islanders made the playoffs and put up an admirable fight against the powerhouse Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1. After making two substantial additions to the forward core this offseason, the Islanders are now hopeful to build on last season’s success under head coach Patrick Roy.
With an improved and rested roster, the Islanders have sneakily earned their way to being deemed “favorites” by most sportsbooks to make the 2025 Playoffs. While they are still long shots to win the Stanley Cup, this core has gone on multiple deep playoff runs in recent seasons, so do not count them out. As well, the roster has undergone more change than many realize, especially after the latest waiver wire decisions.
Mat Barzal
22 Goals – 62 Assists – 84 Points – 82 Games Played
Mat Barzal is coming off a very strong season that saw him score 80 points and record a career-high 23 goals. His success came from an improved powerplay and the permanent addition of Bo Horvat to his line. Barzal finished the season with 20.1 expected goals (xG), per MoneyPuck, but his 9.6% shooting rate—1.1% below his career average—and 240 shots, 61 more than his previous season high, suggest he’s poised for another strong performance this season.
Related: Revisiting John Tavares’ 9 Seasons with the Islanders
With the addition of Anthony Duclair to his line this season, Barzal will finally have a second, true goal-scoring threat who can keep up with his speed. It may not seem like much, but Barzal should see a slight uptick in his point production, with the upside of scoring 25+ goals and 90+ points. It will be interesting to see how his goal production is impacted by Duclair’s addition as Barzal may resort back to his pass-first mentality now he has two strong scorers on his line. It will also be interesting to see how he elevates his game in his second season on the right wing.
Bo Horvat
32 Goals – 38 Assists – 70 Points – 82 Games Played
Horvat delivered a strong performance last season, and he’s likely to replicate it this year. While the addition of Duclair might result in Horvat taking fewer shots, his overall point production is expected to increase slightly. Despite registering just 23.4 xG last season, Horvat has consistently exceeded that metric in his career. 40+ goals seem unlikely, but he is a solid bet to score between 30 and 36.
Anthony Duclair
23 Goals – 26 Assists – 49 Points – 82 Games Played
Once acquired by the Tampa Bay Lightning last season, Duclair spent the majority of his time alongside superstars Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. In 17 games, he scored eight goals and 15 points, proving he can produce at a high clip alongside elite talent. While Horvat and Barzal are a tier below Point and Kucherov, similar results are expected.
Duclair’s speed and shot will pair very well with Barzal’s speed and playmaking ability. On the first line last season, Anders Lee generated a team-high 35.8 xG, good for the 16th most in the NHL. While Lee was unable to capitalize on his frequent high-danger scoring chances, Duclair should be different, leaving him as a confident 20+ goal scorer with upside for 30+ goals and 60+ points.
Brock Nelson
40 Goals – 35 Assists – 75 Points – 82 Games Played
Brock Nelson, in the least analytical term possible, is due for a 40-goal season. The 32-year-old is one of the league’s most underrated scoring threats, and he has scored 34+ goals each of the past three seasons. As well, he finished last season with 1.38 goals per 60 minutes, the same as Mikko Rantanen who scored 42 goals last season and 55 the season prior. With a fully healthy defense, Roy will be more willing to let his top-scoring threats be more aggressive, and nobody will benefit more than Nelson. Of course, 40 goals are pretty ambitious, so a 35-goal, 35-assist, and 70-point season is more realistic.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
12 Goals – 21 Assists – 33 Points – 82 Games Played
Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a difficult player to assess given the uncertainty of his linemates. If he can find chemistry with two consistent wingers, he could score 20+ goals and 40+ points. However, he has never scored 20+ goals in a season as an Islander, and it is looking like the bottom six will be an ever-changing assortment of playstyles and linemates. With that, his goal and point production should increase from last season, but it is still highly unlikely he will provide the offense fans are hoping for.
Anders Lee
19 Goals – 19 Assists – 38 Points – 82 Games Played
Anders Lee has been demoted to the middle six, but this may not be the end of the world. He will begin each shift with additional energy, and his time on the powerplay is unlikely to decrease by much. This would be the first time since 2015-16 he finished with less than a 20-goal pace, but given his age and disappointing 2023-24 season, it is unfortunately likely.
Casey Cizikas
9 Goals – 9 Assists – 18 Points – 82 Games Played
Casey Cizikas will be on the Islanders’ fourth line and is unlikely to provide much offense. He has been hovering around the 10-goal, 20-point mark in recent seasons, and at 33 years old is unlikely to have a career resurgence. While his offensive production may not be the best, he provides capable defense, an asset fans tend to take for granted.
Kyle Palmieri
23 Goals – 24 Assists – 47 Points – 79 Games Played
Kyle Palmieri was the unsung hero of the Islanders’ forward core last season. Under Roy, he was dominant, finishing the season with 30 goals, tied for his career high, and 54 points, three points shy of his career high. It was his best season as an Islander, and while regression is likely, it should not be much.
Palmieri did not get lucky, he just stepped up big time. He had 28.7 xG, the second-highest on the team, and dominated on the powerplay. His 10 powerplay goals and 20 powerplay points are going to decrease, but his underwhelming even strength point production should improve. Also, the third member of the second line will be a determining factor in determining if he can build on last season, or even just maintain the production.
Maxim Tsyplakov
16 Goals – 16 Assists – 32 Points – 75 Games Played
Since Maxim Tsyplakov has never played in the NHL, projecting his stat line this season is anyone’s guess. After scoring 31 goals in 65 KHL games last season, his NHL potential is north of 25 goals. However, it is entirely possible he suits up in just a handful of NHL games due to his inexperience.
With his impressive skillset and professional playstyle, Tsyplakov has a high likelihood of meshing well in the Islanders’ middle six. He will likely start the season slowly, but the confidence management has in his game is palpable.
Kyle MacLean
8 Goals – 12 Assists – 20 Points – 69 Games Played
Kyle MacLean was a fun story last season, and while he is unlikely to become a lineup regular, he will be a great utility option for the Islanders this season. He can play center and wing, kill penalties, and throw the body around. He plays like a younger Cizikas. While his offensive production will not stand out, he will be a great asset to deploy in the bottom six as a shutdown forward.
Simon Holmstrom
12 Goals – 14 Assists – 26 Points – 63 Games Played
Simon Holmstrom is a very good shooter but does not find high-danger chances often. He had a 20.8% shooting percentage last season, the highest on the Islanders and the third highest in the NHL (min. 50 games). As great a shooter as he is, this is not sustainable. While he is likely to regress from his 15 goals last season, he should become a more well-rounded contributor who shows the upside to develop into a future 20+ goal scorer.
Pierre Engvall
6 Goals – 8 Assists – 14 Points – 38 Games Played
Pierre Engvall was placed on waivers by the Islanders prior to the season, but he is unlikely to remain in Bridgeport all season. His impact last season went under the radar given his inconsistencies, but he is a speedy winger who can aid transition in the middle six. He ranked fourth in goals percentage and first in expected goals percentage among all Islanders’ forwards. It is unclear when he will be given a chance to return to the NHL, but it is entirely possible he will return for the second half and become a lineup mainstay.
Other Forwards
Oliver Wahlstrom – 5 Goals – 5 Assists – 10 Points – 39 Games Played
Julien Gauthier – 5 Goals – 3 Assists – 8 Points – 36 Games Played
Hudson Fasching – 0 Goals – 2 Assist – 1 Point – 9 Games Played
William Dufour – 0 Goals – 0 Assists – 0 Points – 2 Games Played
Noah Dobson
11 Goals – 63 Assists – 74 Points – 82 Games Played
Noah Dobson is poised for a dominant 2024-25 season. He was one of the best defensemen in the NHL last season, staying in the top four in betting odds for the James Norris Trophy until the final few weeks of the season. He finished his campaign with 10 goals and 70 points in 78 games while averaging over 24 and a half minutes per game.
Heading into the season, Dobson is likely to see less ice time, specifically on the penalty kill, since the defense is fully healthy. While this may decrease his offensive opportunities, his fresh legs will allow him to maximize the ice time he does receive. With this, his point production should remain relatively similar, but his primary point production should improve from 45 points (10 goals and 35 primary assists) to around 50 to 55 total primary points.
Alexander Romanov
3 Goals – 15 Assists – 18 Points – 82 Games Played
As Dobson’s partner, Alexander Romanov’s job is all about defense, and he is great at it. He posted a career-high seven goals and 22 points and is likely to regress, but should still put up respectable numbers. While my prediction has him at just three goals and 18 points, I would not be surprised if he finished the season closer to five goals and 25 points, especially if injuries start piling up and he needs to eat more ice time like he did last season.
Ryan Pulock
5 Goals – 23 Assists – 28 Points – 80 Games Played
Even with his injuries last season, Ryan Pulock put up decent numbers. While he is capable of providing a solid level of offense, Roy is likely to deploy him in a more defensive-centric role with Dobson and Mike Reilly’s offensive capabilities and Scott Mayfield’s defensive uncertainties. This is not to say Pulock will be taken off the powerplay, but he is likely to see more shifts beginning in the defensive zone than he is used to, limiting his offensive upside.
Scott Mayfield
2 Goals – 10 Assists – 12 Points – 80 Games Played
Mayfield has never been a point producer and this season should be no different. His evaluation at the end of the season will have zero mention of his offense and focus entirely on his defense, so predicting his stat line does not mean much. Regardless, he is likely to find the back of the next a couple of times on shots from the point, and he could lead a handful of odd-man rushes that turn into goals.
Adam Pelech
3 Goals – 15 Assists – 18 Points – 75 Games Played
Adam Pelech has struggled to stay on the ice in recent seasons, so getting 75 games out of him, regardless of the offensive production, would be a win for the Islanders. When on the ice, he is a sneaky good skater and passer who can drive some offense. However, with his usage as a defensive defenseman and minimal offensive opportunities, it is hard to see him scoring more than a few goals and 20 points.
Mike Reilly
5 Goals – 24 Assists – 29 Points – 74 Games Played
Reilly was a great addition to the Islanders’ defense last season, and while his point production is likely to decrease with the defense returning to health, he should remain a valuable contributor on the third pairing. A decent portion of his points will stem from the powerplay, but he should be a great partner to Mayfield and drive offense through the neutral zone at even strength. While I have him projected for five goals and 29 points, a seven to eight-goal, 35+ point season could be in the cards if he receives an expanded role.
Other Defenseman
Samuel Bolduc – 0 Goals – 0 Assists – 0 Points – 3 Game Played
Grant Hutton – 0 Goals – 0 Assists – 0 Points – 1 Game Played
Dennis Cholowski – 0 Goals – 3 Assists – 0 Points – 15 Games Played
Ilya Sorokin
26-17-6 – .917 SV% – 2.59 GAA – 16.28 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin had a shaky 2023-24 season, going 25-19-12 with a .908 save percentage (SV%), 3.01 goals against average (GAA), and 1.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx), according to MoneyPuck. However, his disappointing season stemmed from his intense workload, and the offseason back injury he sustained could limit his workload to begin this season.
With the 2023-24 season behind us, Sorokin is poised to return to form now that he is practicing at full speed. Pelech, Pulock, and Mayfield are fully healthy, meaning Sorokin should face a lower nightly workload. His numbers on the penalty kill last season were bad (.830 SV%, 10.36 GAA, and -8.5 GSAx), so there is room for improvement there. Notably, he is still a great goaltender, finishing 10th in high-danger SV%, according to NHL Edge. Considering how poorly he played and still salvaged a positive GSAx, it is hard to imagine he does not shoot back into the premier goaltenders in the NHL conversation.
Semyon Varlamov
15-15-3 – .915 SV% – 2.83 GAA – 6.91 GSAx
As great of a season as Semyon Varlamov had in 2023-24, he is likely to slightly regress in 2024-25. There is not much to discuss with his game. He gives the Islanders a chance to win each game, and he rarely gives up “weak” goals. If Sorokin can return to form, Varlamov will see less game action. If Sorokin struggles or gets injured, Varlamov would be a great interim starting goaltender.
The Islanders season begins on Thu, Oct. 10 at UBS Arena against the Utah Hockey Club. From there, the team will play three straight games on the road against Central Division opponents. The Islanders’ first game against a Metropolitan Division team will be on Oct. 25 against the Devils at Prudential Center.
