When asked about what he wants to see from the Detroit Red Wings, general manager Steve Yzerman has always pointed to incremental progress.
What does that look like for the 2024-25 season after missing the 2024 postseason by the narrowest of margins? Actually reaching the playoffs? More team points? Individual growth?
“I hope to [make the playoffs],” Yzerman said in his end-of-year press conference. “It’s going to be a challenge.”
It begs the question, are the Red Wings a playoff team? Let’s dive in and examine their case for returning to the postseason.
Red Wings’ Internal Improvements
Compared to last season, the Red Wings are a better team. For starters, the offense is slightly better. Vladimir Tarasenko is an upgrade over David Perron. A full year of Patrick Kane is better than half a season. And down-lineup additions and subtractions come out even when considering goal-differential. All together, there’s a net gain offensively.
Related: Red Wings’ Projected Depth Chart for 2024-25
Detroit’s defensive corps nets out evenly. Moritz Seider will be better in 2024-25. Simon Edvinsson is an upgrade over Jake Walman. His likely defensive partner—Jeff Petry—is in the last year of his contract and has incentive to perform well this year in hopes of continuing his NHL career.
These positives—combined with the downgrade from Shayne Gostisbehere to Erik Gustafsson—puts Detroit’s defense on par with the 2023-24 group in terms of projected output.
Finally, we have the Red Wings’ goaltenders. Cam Talbot is a clear upgrade over James Reimer. Ville Husso and Alex Lyon are in good positions as well. Both are healthy, in contract years, and are in line for appropriate workloads in 2024-25. Overall, there’s a net gain in net.
Put together, the three position groups should combine to be more productive than their 2023-24 counterparts. When you factor in expected systems changes to be stronger defensively, it’s fair to say we’ll see a better Red Wings team in 2024-25.
Detroit’s Eastern Conference Competition
Internal improvements are only one part of the equation. Another is external factors, namely the other teams in the Eastern Conference competing for the same playoff spots.
Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, and the New York Rangers figure to be locks for the playoffs. You can argue that New Jersey should be included in this group, too, with the additions of Jacob Markstrom and Brett Pesce, plus the return of Dougie Hamilton.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, only Columbus is a true bottom-feeder. Philadelphia and Montreal aren’t quite playoff contenders yet, but could make things interesting down the stretch.
That leaves seven teams competing for the final two playoff spots: Detroit, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, and the New York Islanders.
Suffice to say, the Red Wings have an uphill battle ahead of them. The Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division are full of high-quality teams, and most of the 2025 Draft Lottery contenders are in the Western Conference.
Red Wings Remain On the Fringe
The Red Wings are a better team. That’s clear. But ultimately, they need to prove that they’re better than other Eastern Conference teams. As such, I can’t say the Red Wings are a playoff team at this point.
The betting markets have a similar perspective. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Red Wings at +132 to make the playoffs – or a 43.1 percent chance of doing so. In addition, their under/over on points is set at 89.5. Among the middling Eastern Conference teams, the Islanders, Senators, and Lightning all have higher under/over totals for points, and Pittsburgh is listed at the same 89.5 as Detroit.
Related: 3 Key Insights Into Detroit’s Offseason Strategy
This is the on-paper viewpoint, though. We haven’t even mentioned the impact luck has in the NHL.
That said, thee games still need to be played. And once the season kicks off, we’ll see if the Red Wings can prove that they’re true playoff contenders.
