Despite the Utah Mammoth having the second-worst point percentage in the NHL since Oct. 27, they find themselves just one point out of a Western Conference wild card playoff spot as we creep up on the halfway mark of the season.
Being right on the cusp of a playoff spot is not unfamiliar territory to this Mammoth team, as they spent the majority of their inaugural season in Salt Lake City trying to figure out a way to leapfrog into the Stanley Cup playoff bracket.
However, the Mammoth were too late in finding consistency, and regardless of their 26-12-6 record from mid-January on last season, they still finished seven points out of the playoffs.
With the Mammoth having an 8-13-3 record over the last month and a half, they are getting to the point where if they continue to struggle for consistency, they will find themselves in the same hole they were in last season, which was too deep to dig out of.
The Mammoth are starting to show signs of life with back-to-back wins. But, with just six wins in their last 15 games, much more consistency will be needed. Let’s take a look at what the Mammoth were doing over the course of their 8-2-0 start to the season, compared to their recent struggles since a seven-game win streak throughout October, and see if we can pinpoint what is causing this inconsistency.
What Has Been Plaguing The Mammoth?
Even with being one of the worst teams in hockey for quite a long stretch, it rarely looks like it. Over the Mammoth’s last 19 games, where they have a record of 7-9-3, they have won the expected goal battle in 14 of them (73.68%) at five-on-five.
However, the results make much more sense when you include their special teams numbers, specifically the power play, which has been dreadful this season. When including data for all strengths over this recent stretch, the Mammoth have only won the expected goals battle in eight of their last 19 games (42.1%).
Most of these struggles have come from the power-play unit, as the guys killing penalties have been excellent, ranking seventh as a team and sixth when adjusted for short-handed goals scored. The power play is only converting at a 16.1% rate, which is the seventh-worst in the NHL and down 8.1% from last season, when the Mammoth were a top-10 team on the man advantage.
Earlier in the season, when the Mammoth were winning eight of their first 10 games, the power play was clicking at 24.2%. However, since then, the rate has been just 11.7%. If it were a shorter stint that the power play was struggling, I’d be more apt to believe that it is just a slump, but with nearly two months of it being among the bottom in the league, it seems that teams have figured out what they are trying to do.
Special teams percentages via Quant Hockey
The Solution to the Mammoth’s Power Play Woes
Across the board, the Mammoth’s numbers are brutal on the man advantage. Twenty-fourth in shots, 32nd in scoring chances, 28th in high-danger chances, 31st in expected goals per 60 minutes, and it even translates right down to the shot attempts, where they are averaging the second-fewest attempts per 60 minutes.
Compared to their five-on-five offensive production, where the Mammoth rank in the top third of the league in all categories, it’s evident that their game plan isn’t working, and they need to go back to the drawing board. Luckily for the Mammoth, it is not hard to find a plan that works; it’s just about learning from a team having success and implementing it into their game.
To show how easy it is, here is a tweet I put out, comparing the Mammoth’s shot maps on the power play to the top three units in the league, the Pittsburgh Penguins, Dallas Stars, and Edmonton Oilers (via Hockey Viz).
From this, you’ll notice the one thing that all three teams are much better at than the Mammoth: creating space and shots from in tight to the net, or the area of the ice, which I learned to be the ‘no puck zone’, which is effectively a rectangle starting on the goal line on either side of the net and goes out to the inner hashmarks on the faceoff circles.
This is effectively the area on the ice where any shot attempt, no matter the other factors a model takes into account, will be graded as a scoring chance, and will be where most of your high-danger chances come from. This shows with the Mammoth averaging the fewest scoring chances and the third-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes, compared to the other three teams ranking among the top 10 in both of these areas.
Obviously, the team killing penalties is prioritizing taking away this area of the ice, and it’s not as simple as passing the puck to players in high-danger areas to get these chances. But the teams that excel at opening up the front of the net do so with movement. Not just puck movement, but player movement too.
The Mammoth’s power play quite often feels stagnant and boring. They move the puck well, but without moving their feet, the puck movement accomplishes nothing.
The Oilers, Penguins, and Stars have some of the most talented players in the game on their rosters, so it should not come as a shock that they are dominant on the man advantage. However, even with the talent, they are playing a simple game of using their legs to create space in front and then funnelling pucks to the net.
The Mammoth simply try to do too much on the power play, and after all these words, it sounds lazy to suggest the solution is to simplify. However, if the best teams and players in the league are having success with the simplest game plan, it’s something the Mammoth need to learn from and adopt.
All stats from Natural Stat Trick unless specified.
Mammoth Have Been Good When the Power Play Scores
The Mammoth’s power play is not the only thing letting them down. Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek have left a lot to be desired in the net. However, their goaltending tandem was a significant concern for me coming into the season.
Related: Utah Mammoth Continue to Show Growth Despite Emerging Goaltending Concern
However, it is hard to solely blame the goaltending, since we knew that group was likely the weakest link on this team entering the season, especially when the power-play production has fallen off a cliff.
The bottom line is that the Mammoth are 10-3-1 this season in the 14 games in which they have scored a power-play goal. More consistency on the man advantage will be what leads this team into a playoff position.
