The Anaheim Ducks are “for real.” The Vegas Golden Knights found out as the Ducks edged them 4-3 in overtime on Saturday night. The former punching bags of the Golden Knights have been resurgent and are not only the Pacific Division leaders, but are also contending for the top spot in the conference.
Related: 3 Golden Knights Takeaways Through Month of October
This matters not just in terms of home-ice advantage for the playoffs, but because it highlights a troubling pattern: when the Golden Knights don’t claim the division, their postseason outcomes suffer. The Golden Knights’ margin for error is shrinking, and every slip-up at home or in crucial stretches becomes magnified.
The Ducks’ rise matters, and it’s forcing the five-time division winners into a corner this early in the season. For a team built to win rather than simply compete, the height of the stakes has never been greater. But maybe this is for the best, as the Golden Knights can address their shortcomings now rather than later.
Losing the Division Matters More Than You Think
Winning the division might sound like window dressing in October, but for the Golden Knights, it has proven to be a predictor of deeper postseason success. The Ducks have won six straight and lead the Golden Knights 21-18 in terms of points. If this holds, it will only be the fourth time that the Golden Knights don’t win the division in their franchise’s history. Each of the last three times, they did not make it past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
There is some potential good news for the Golden Knights, however. The Ducks may not keep up their hot streak. Regression may come for the Ducks, who have been red-hot and scoring 4.14 goals per game. They have a plus-13 goal differential despite only barely outshooting opponents (431-426) and being break-even in special teams with mediocre numbers (21.8% power play percentage and 74.5% on the penalty kill).
At 5-on-5, the Ducks are also outperforming most advanced metrics. Per Hockey Reference, they have a 102.3 PDO (fifth in the league) and are plus-15 in actual goal differential minus expected goal differential (tied for first). In contrast, the Golden Knights are below average in PDO (98.9) and third-worst in the goal differential (minus-8).
Indeed, these metrics may not hold over 82 games. Oddsmakers still widely expect the Golden Knights to win the division at an implied 54.5%. The Ducks are still a distant runner-up at just 11.8%. While the Golden Knights can’t just “hope” for the Ducks to slow down, it’s also hard to see the NHL’s third-youngest team keeping up this scintillating run.
The Golden Knights need to do the obvious: win more games. If they end the regular season finishing behind the Ducks, they’ll face a tougher road in the playoffs. There will be fewer home games, tougher matchups, and momentum in someone else’s favor. This may make general manager Kelly McCrimmon more proactive now.
Golden Knights Pushed To Make Bigger Moves?
The Golden Knights may be making a blockbuster deal soon. Their margin for error is shrinking and exacerbated by constant injuries. Center William Karlsson has now joined skipper Mark Stone on the sidelines. Goaltender stability is always in question. The club’s current starter, Akira Schmid, is 6-1-1 with a 2.51 goals-against average (GAA) and a .901 save percentage (SV%) so far.
This is decent, but not elite, especially when the other team’s netminder is outdoing the Golden Knights (such as the Ducks’ Petr Mrazek on Sunday).
This is a franchise that has consistently gone out to acquire a superstar regardless of the cost. The Golden Knights broke through with the Jack Eichel deal a few seasons ago. They made the biggest offseason deal with Mitch Marner, along with acquiring some depth pieces to shore up the rest of the roster. And of course, Carter Hart in goal.
With the Ducks charging ahead, there’s less space to be patient. A failure to act (or failure to execute) could mean the division slips away, not just due to performance, but due to lack of urgency. The team’s powers-that-be have proven they will err on the side of assertiveness.
The Ducks’ Rise Pushes the Golden Knights To Dig Deep This Early
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Golden Knights have faced adversity before and often come out stronger. Their championship pedigree wasn’t built on coasting. It was forged through course corrections, calculated risks, and the ability to adapt (mainly due to injuries).
The Ducks’ rise may make the Golden Knights’ outlook a bit bleaker now, but it could be exactly the spark that forces the 2023 champions to rediscover what made them the league’s most ruthless frontrunners. Whether it’s through a trade, a tactical overhaul, or a renewed sense of urgency, the Golden Knights still control their fate. This window won’t stay open forever.
If the Ducks continue to win while the Golden Knights stay complacent, this season could mark an unlikely passing of the torch in the Pacific Division. But if the Golden Knights reassert their identity as the disciplined, relentless, and prolific machine, the Ducks’ early surge will serve as a wake-up call and not a coup.
The next few weeks may very well decide what the Golden Knights will be. They can still be the reigning Pacific Division champions, holding back a new slew of challengers, or they will be unseated and looking up at the league’s new power.
