Recently, the NHL and NHLPA jointly announced the projected NHL salary caps for the next three seasons. The cap will be $95.5 million next season, $104 million in 2026-27, and $113 million in 2027-28, representing a $25 million increase from the current $88 million cap over just three years.
The $7.5-million increase for next season should be like manna from heaven for Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff. He now has an opportunity to re-sign his highest-profile pending unrestricted free agent (UFA,) Nikolaj Ehlers, without sacrificing much elsewhere.
Whether True North Sports & Entertainment, who owns the Jets, will spend to the $113 million ceiling in 2027-28 remains to be seen and will be influenced by a number of factors including ticket sales, strength of the Canadian Dollar, and level of on-ice success. It’s pretty clear, though, considering the team’s first-place status and win-now mindset that they won’t have any qualms with spending up to the $95.5 million ceiling next season.
When your Stanley Cup window is open, you worry about tomorrow’s issues tomorrow. Today’s biggest issue, when it comes to player personnel, is that Ehlers will be on the open market in less than five months if he doesn’t re-sign.
Ehlers Is A Draft-and-Develop Success Story
The Danish forward, drafted ninth overall by the Jets in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, is one of the team’s speediest and most-dynamic players. He has struggled with injuries at times, but his skillset makes him a potential game-breaker whenever he is in the lineup.
Ehlers, soon to be 29 years old, is already in his 10th Jets season. He has has 217 goals and 287 assists for 504 points in 651-career games and 16 goals and 31 assists for 47 points in 46 games this season. He is on the final year of a seven-year contract with a $6 million average annual value (AAV) he signed ahead of the 2017-18 season.
Does Ehlers Want to Stay?
It’s obvious Ehlers is due a raise. However, does he want to stay in Winnipeg?
Ehlers has rarely played a top-line role in Winnipeg, and until this season under first-year head coach Scott Arniel and his new assistants, was woefully underused on the power play and in crucial situations despite being an analytical darling. Some have opined, and perhaps rightfully given his history of second-line and second power-play unit usage, he may want to test the waters to find somewhere that will give him more than his career 16:07 of ice time per game.
After he captured his 500th-career point last month, though, Ehlers didn’t exactly sound like someone with one foot out the door or with interest in hitting free agency.
“It’s special. But I think what’s the most special is doing it here at home,” he said of reaching the milestone. “Getting closer, it wasn’t in my head much. But I was hoping that I could do it at home in front of our fans that I think they’re feeling pretty good tonight.”
Ehlers made some comments in the offseason regarding contract extension talks that some saw as cryptic. Regardless of if he was just being generic — he didn’t have much to report since he and Cheveldayoff hadn’t had any contract talks to that point — many pundits believed he would be traded before the start of this season. That obviously didn’t happen and the Jets couldn’t look anyone in the face and say they are Cup contenders if they were to trade him at next month’s trade deadline.
Cheveldayoff Can Fit Ehlers (and Others) Under New Cap
Ehlers has averaged 0.78 points per game in his career and other active players of similar ages who produce at similar clips include Filip Forsberg (30 years old, 0.87 career point-per-game average), J.T. Miller (31, 0.81 career point-per-game average) and Sam Reinhart (29, 0.80 points-per-game average.)
All three of those players’ deals carry AAVs of $8 million to $8.625 million and it’s hard to envision Ehlers’ new AAV coming in much lower than that on a long-term deal, especially considering when salary caps go up, players’ asks can go up as well.
Cheveldayoff will have $42 million to work with when free agency opens July 1 barring any contracts taken on at the trade deadline and re-signings before then. That figure includes the expiring contracts of Ehlers, Mason Appleton, Alex Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov, Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg, and Gabriel Vilardi coming off the books in addition to the final year of the Blake Wheeler buyout coming off (Nate Schmidt’s buyout comes off the books after next season.)
Cheveldayoff should have the room to ink not only Ehlers to a long-term deal, but lock up Vilardi — the Jets’ second-highest-profile UFA who is having a career season on the first line — long-term as well. Even if the two command $16 million combined, Cheveldayoff will still have as much $26 million to work with to sign the others (he does have to be mindful, though, because sniper Kyle Connor is a UFA after next season and he won’t come cheap.) It’s also entirely possible Appleton and/or Iafallo are allowed to walk in favour of younger players, decreasing the number of players he has to dole out money to.
Related: Jets Should Lock Up Vilardi Long-Term Sooner Than Later
Even those who believe Ehlers is as good as gone should at least keep entertaining a faint notion he’ll be back. Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele both seemed to have their bags packed before news broke out of nowhere in October 2023 they’d inked identical seven-year extensions to likely remain Jets for life.
For now, the Jets’ focus should be on maintaining their first-place position and finally finding some playoff success after two-straight first-round exits. However, the Ehlers’ situation demands their focus before long lest they lose one of the most-unique players they have ever had in the midst of their Cup window.