Like most NHL teams at this stage of the NHL offseason, the Colorado Avalanche have completed their annual roster makeover and have decided who will form the core of the team to start the new campaign. Most of the familiar names remain in the fold, but some new faces promise to inject excitement into what can be a long and arduous season.
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My colleague Ryan Womeldorf recently explored why the Avalanche won’t be Stanley Cup contenders in 2024-25, so consider this piece an indirect rebuttal to that article. The team’s true chances lie somewhere in the murky middle, but I like to take an optimistic view of their odds. With that, let’s dive into the three main reasons why the Avalanche will win the fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history this season.
Improved Defensive Depth After Busy Offseason
While no team can win a Stanley Cup without significant contributions from its star players, the road to a championship is often paved by the unsung grinders and depth pieces up front and on the blue line. Elite teams are often similar at the top of the lineup, so it’s in the margins that the title-deciding difference can often be made.
The Avalanche are famously blessed with some of the best players in the world at nearly every position, but it’s the unheralded work of general manager Chris MacFarland that should have the organization having visions of success.
The Avalanche blue line will once again be anchored by its four pillars in Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, and Josh Manson. The quartet have consistently been the team’s most-utilized defensemen over the past few seasons, carry rich multi-year contracts, and all made an impact during the dominant 2022 Stanley Cup run.
The bottom pair has been a revolving door, with Jack Johnson, Erik Johnson, Bowen Byram, Brad Hunt, and Jacob MacDonald all having played at least 40 total games for the Avalanche since the start of the 2021-22 season. Caleb Jones (25 games) and Sam Malinski (23) both played more than a quarter of the season in the NHL.
Only the core four and Malinksi remain after a busy offseason which saw Oliver Kylington, Calvin de Haan, and Erik Brannstrom sign with the Avalanche as free agents. Those additions give the club seven defenders with at least 200 NHL games under their belt, with the lone exception in Malinksi flashing the ability to be a bottom-pair mainstay in the long term.
Few teams in the NHL can boast a top-four of the same caliber as the Avalanche, let alone be able to run a consistent rotation of eight dependable defenders. The added puck-moving ability and penalty-killing capabilities should lessen the burden on the likes of Makar and Toews and keep them fresh for the playoffs while simultaneously overpowering weaker opposition. These moves may not get the headlines in July or August, but they could be the difference come next spring.
Avalanche’s Stars Performing at Peak Levels
So, about those aforementioned superstars. Center Nathan MacKinnon is coming off arguably the best season of his career in which he tallied career-highs in goals (51), assists (89), and points (140) and won both the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award.
Finnish winger Mikko Rantanen followed up his 55-goal, 105-point effort in 2022-23 with a similarly productive 42 goals and 104 points in 2023-24, putting him fourth in goals and seventh in points among all skaters over the past two seasons.
Makar was named a Norris Trophy finalist for the third consecutive season (winning in 2021-22) and finished either first or second among all defensemen in terms of goals, assists, and points.
In terms of the tier of players below, star defender Devon Toews scored 50 points from the blue line with the currently-suspended Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen both scoring at at least a 60-point pace up front.
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Unsurprisingly, the Avalanche led the league in scoring (3.68 goals per game) and were a top-three team in terms of scoring chance generation at five-on-five, backing up their offense with solid underlying numbers. Only four other teams scored at least 3.5 goals per game, demonstrating that they’re in a class of their own in attack.
Colorado’s collection of stars and most of the enviable supporting cast are still at or near the peak age for production which is around the ages of 24 to 30. They should also be more improved with a full season from new top-six center Casey Mittelstadt, consistent dependability from Nichushkin, and a potential return from captain Gabriel Landeskog, who has not played since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final due to injury and subsequent recovery.
Even if the best-case scenario proves elusive, the Avalanche should once again be among the leading offensive units on the backs of the league’s most dynamic players.
Avalanche’s Stanley Cup Rivals Got Worse This Offseason
It’s important to remember that teams don’t make transactions in a vacuum. While some may add players and improve the quality of their roster, others shed players and become worse. Teams also make misguided moves for players they assume will fit well in their lineup, only to see them become a net negative for what could be any number of reasons.
It’s within this framework that the Avalanche should feel more positive about their chances at a championship this season. While they did not make any blockbuster moves that significantly moved the needle, many of their direct rivals for the Stanley Cup (including several from the Western Conference) saw their talent basin depleted this offseason.
The Vegas Golden Knights waved goodbye to Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Logan Thompson, William Carrier, Michael Amadio and Anthony Mantha while replacing them with Alexander Holtz, Victor Olofsson and Ilya Samsonov. This is a roster which struggled to qualify for the playoffs last season (albeit mostly due to injury) and which saw few notable reinforcements join their cause.
The Winnipeg Jets saw the key departures of Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli, Nate Schmidt, Brenden Dillon and Laurent Brossoit with only Kaapo Kahkonen functioning as a direct replacement. Veteran leadership and production is difficult to replicate and replace, so the Jets will have to hope their farm system bears fruit and their young players take the next step in their development.
Out East, the Carolina Hurricanes and the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers both experienced a significant exodus of talent, although the Avalanche would not have to face them in the playoffs until the Cup Final.
The only top contenders from last season who should be spoken of in the same breath as the Avalanche are the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers, though both have their own faults.
The Stars knocked out the Avalanche in the second round last season but saw Joe Pavelski (retirement) and Chris Tanev (free agency) depart this offseason, meaning that they are banking on the development of their enviable young core. The Oilers were one win away from being crowned champions last season and added Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson to an already high-powered offense.
Health could be the deciding factor between that triumvirate of Western powers, but the Avalanche have to feel confident about their chances.
Avalanche Should Be Confident Heading Into 2024-25 Season
While the Avalanche should not rest on their laurels and assume that everything will unfold without any issues this season, there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
Colorado bolstered an already formidable back end with shrewd free-agent signings which have the potential to pay significant dividends down the line. The Avalanche’s established superstar talents continue to elevate their game to new heights and their closest rivals are likely to see a decline in performance which only cements their own position atop the NHL hierarchy.
As they enter a new season with renewed optimism and a tweaked roster, the Avalanche are poised to capitalize on their championship potential and should be one of the clear favorites to win the 2025 Stanley Cup.
