We’re already half a dozen games into the Philadelphia Flyers’ 2023-24 campaign, and a lot has already happened. We’ve seen an injury, a benching, and one of the more improbable comebacks possible in hockey, among other things. The Flyers sit at 3-2-1, which is respectable given they’ve only had two home games and have faced some pretty stiff competition. Here’s what to make of their first two weeks of action, and whether their surprisingly strong start is a sign of what’s to come or a blip on the radar.
Reasons to Believe
5-on-5 Play
Other than maybe goaltending, there’s nothing more important in hockey than 5-on-5 play. Over the last few seasons, the Flyers have unsurprisingly been one of the league’s weaker teams in this area. Last season, the Flyers were outscored by 22 goals at 5-on-5 and finished 23rd in the league with a 47.76 percent expected goals (xG) share. Unsurprisingly, none of the teams that finished below them made the playoffs.
So far, the Flyers are playing legitimately well during the majority of games. Philadelphia’s 54.11 percent xG share ranks sixth in the league this season. The team is also playing a balanced style, coming in eighth in both xG for and against. They’ve tightened up their defensive zone play, forechecked effectively and also simply have a more skilled team than a season ago. All of that adds up to an impressive opening six games.
The Penalty Power Kill
When the Flyers have been shorthanded, they haven’t been as good as they’ve been at 5-on-5. They’ve been better, at least relative to what you’d expect from a team down a man. Assistant coach Brad Shaw brought with him the “power kill” mentality he and John Tortorella honed with the Columbus Blue Jackets (from ‘Inside the Flyers’ new penalty kill: Brad Shaw is “letting them hunt”‘, The Athletic, Jan. 13, 2023). Being more aggressive on the penalty kill is becoming more commonplace, but few swarm like the Flyers while shorthanded. It showed signs of promise at times last year, as the Flyers were tied for fourth with 11 shorthanded goals. Their overall efficiency was just 26th, though, leaving plenty of room for improvement.
The Flyers frankly couldn’t be playing better while shorthanded. Philadelphia is first in both xG for and against while on the penalty kill. Their four shorthanded goals are the most in the league, three of which came in a massive comeback effort to secure a point on Saturday against the Dallas Stars. And their 85 percent success rate is tied for 10th, which means this offensive boon isn’t coming at the expense of defensive breakdowns.
Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson Look Back
The most simple way to project an improvement for the Flyers this season was to factor in the impact coming from the returns of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson. It wasn’t fair to expect two players in their 30s coming off significant injuries to just return at peak powers. Yet, so far, both players look like their old selves.
The trigger-happy Atkinson is second on the team with four goals. Couturier is handling matchups against the league’s star forwards well and has four points himself, including a filthy penalty shot tally against the Vancouver Canucks. Both are huge reasons for Philadelphia’s success in the aforementioned areas. If the Flyers are going to surprise people for the better, they’ll need to keep leading the team on and off the ice.
Reasons to Doubt
We’ve Seen This Before
The Flyers were 7-3-2 to start last season. They were 8-4-2 out of the gates in 2021-22. In 2020-21, they started the campaign 8-3-2. All good records that all went bad before long. The Flyers didn’t finish better than 18th in the NHL in any of those seasons. They’ve been especially pitiful the last two seasons, to the point where the team finally accepted a much-needed rebuild.
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Six good games are not going to change that, just like the dozen or so good games to begin the last few seasons ultimately didn’t save those previous Flyers teams. Yes, this Flyers team is playing a bit better under the hood than in years past. It still isn’t nearly enough to make anyone think they’ll be significantly better than expected.
The Power Play
Philadelphia’s lack of skill is painfully evident whenever opposing teams take a penalty. There’s being bad on the power play, and then there’s being the only team in the league without a 5-on-4 goal this season. The Flyers’ lone power-play goal of the season so far came on a 5-on-3 against the Ottawa Senators, and even that was on a gritty rebound rather than a skilled passing play.
Related: 4 Takeaways From Flyers’ 3-2 Loss to Golden Knights
It’s not like the Flyers are just snakebitten, either. Only the Stars’ power play is generating fewer xG per 60 than the Flyers. Entries have been an issue, too. The Flyers will probably change their personnel around if things don’t pick up soon. But given the team’s struggles on the man advantage a year ago, expect this to be a significant weakness going forward.
The Kids Aren’t All Alright
Wins and losses aren’t what matters most to the Flyers this season, though. This is a rebuilding team, so, naturally, the game of the young players is the most important component of this season. The Flyers saw quite a few of those players take steps forward a season ago, but not all of them are following a similar trajectory so far this season. There have certainly been some early season growing pains to deal with.
Bobby Brink and Egor Zamula have been the best of the bunch. Brink has been consistently generating chances and playing aggressively offensively. Zamula is making smart decisions with the puck in all areas of the ice. Things get murkier from there, though. Tyson Foerster has had his moments but has also strayed away from the shooting mentality that made him such a highly touted prospect. Emil Andrae has made more than his fair share of mistakes and could be demoted to the American Hockey League once Rasmus Ristolainen returns from injury. And Samuel Ersson allowed five goals in his lone game of the season, tied for the second most in a game in his young NHL career.
In truth, that wave of youngsters isn’t even the main concern. Two bad games to start the season from Morgan Frost have led to four in a row in the press box. Cam York hasn’t been the analytical darling he was in the second half of last year’s campaign. Owen Tippett isn’t popping quite as much as he did a season ago, nor does he have a goal through six games. Tippett only had two longer goalless streaks all of last season. Given those three are further along in their NHL careers, the onus is on them to turn things around sooner rather than later.
The Verdict
Despite some encouraging developments surrounding their overall play, it would have taken a perfect first six games to convince anyone the Flyers have a chance of being a quality team this season. There are still plenty of games left — 76, to be exact — and if the Flyers do keep playing as well as they have, they could make some noise. But expect some regression to the mean that drags the Flyers down towards the bottom of the standings soon. As long as it’s at least partially offset by improved play from their youth, the Flyers will take it.
Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick