As the Toronto Maple Leafs hit the quarter mark of the 2024-25 regular season, they are in a strong position atop the Atlantic Division standings. They are showing early signs of championship potential with a record of 12-6-2 and 26 points in 20 games. Despite challenges like injuries to key players and adjusting to roster changes, Toronto has outperformed preseason expectations.
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What are the factors driving this early success? From surprising developments on defence to unexpected contributions from depth players, the Maple Leafs have showcased resilience and adaptability. In this post, Stan and I will explore five significant surprises that have shaped their rise to first place and examine the questions these developments raise for the remainder of the season.
Surprise #1: The Maple Leafs Sit in First Place in the Atlantic Division
The Maple Leafs are in first place in the Atlantic Division, and legitimately so. After 20 games, they have 26 points, one more than the Florida Panthers, who have played the same number of games. They are four points up on the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning with two more games played.
(Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
Next week is a huge week for the Maple Leafs as they visit Florida on Wednesday to take on the Panthers. They follow that up with a game against the Lightning in Tampa on Saturday, Nov. 30. Those two big four-pointers might play a huge part in the end of the season standings.
Surprise #2: The Maple Leafs’ Defence Has Been Stellar
The Maple Leafs’ defence is arguably the best in the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era. In the offseason, Toronto replaced TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano with Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. That has allowed Simon Benoit to play a more suitable third-pairing role. They traded Timothy Liljegren and gave Conor Timmins a more predominant role. They also picked up Jani Hakanpaa.
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Tanev has been exactly as advertised: a top-pair shutdown defenceman. He leads the NHL in blocked shots with 67 and has been either an excellent partner for the offensively minded Morgan Rielly or half of a great shutdown pair with Jake McCabe.
Ekman-Larsson is a beast. Due to aging and injuries, OEL has had to adapt his game. While he once was a dangerous offensive threat with a game built on his skating and puckhandling abilities, he has become a solid physical shutdown defenceman who can jump into the play on odd occasions. His defensive play has given head coach Craig Berube options on the back end. He has recently replaced Tanev as the go-to partner for Rielly, allowing Berube to put Tanev and McCabe together against other team’s top lines.
Timmins has always shown signs of being a decent all-around defenceman. However, due to injuries and inconsistency in his play, he has never had a long run to show what he can do night-to-night. Berube has given him that opportunity, which worked well for Timmins and the Maple Leafs.
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There are still lots of questions about Hakanpaa’s game. He is coming off a significant injury that some thought might be career-ending. He has only played in two games and has been a healthy scratch in Toronto’s last two games. The Maple Leafs are careful about his return to play.
Surprise #3: The Maple Leafs’ Goaltending Has Been Good as Gold
The Maple Leafs have been getting great goaltending. They also have the best goaltending depth they have ever had. Both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll (when healthy) have been stellar. In 12 games, Stolarz has a record of 7-3-2 with a .927 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.18 goals-against average (GAA). In six appearances, Woll is 4-2-0 with a .922 SV% and a 2.00 GAA.
In the American Hockey League (AHL), newcomer Artur Akhtyamov has yet to lose a game in regulation in six starts. He is 5-0-1 with a .926 SV% and a 1.95 GAA. Veteran Matt Murray has seen action in four games and is 4-1-1 with a .902 SV% and a 2.73 GAA. He also mentors the two young Marlies’ goalies.
Dennis Hildeby had a solid rookie season in 2023-24, posting a 21-11-7 record with a .913 SV% and a 2.41 GAA. This season, his combined record in the NHL and AHL is 3-1-2 with a .895 SV% and 2.93 GAA. However, in his last two starts, Hildeby has given up three goals early in each game and then shut the opposition from there. His play has allowed the Marlies to come from behind and send both games into overtime. They won one of them and lost the other in a record-breaking 12-round shootout.
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One thing that has been noticeable about all of the goalies is their mental toughness. After years of dealing with Jack Campbell’s and then Ilya Samsonov’s shaky psyches, all five of their present netminders seem to have that glow of ultimate confidence in themselves.
Surprise #4: Matthew Knies Has Become a Legitimate Power Forward
Matthews Knies has become a legitimate power forward who plays a 200-foot game. He has scored eight goals and is on pace to score over 30 this season. He has averaged over 18 minutes a game, over two minutes per game on the power play, and over two minutes per game on the penalty kill.
Knies did leave his last game after taking a high and questionable hit from Zach Whitecloud, but Berube stated that he was fine the following day. He was placed on injured reserve, but retroactively. It might be a short stay.
Surprise #5: Auston Matthews’ Injury Has Put Him Out of the Goal-Scoring Race
Interestingly, Knies has three more goals than Auston Matthews, who has only five goals at the quarter-mark of the season.
Matthews has played only 13 games and missed seven due to an injury that was first diagnosed as day-to-day. However, the injury has kept him off the ice for three weeks, resulting in his traveling to Germany to see a specialist. Even when he was “healthy,” and we use that word cautiously because we don’t know exactly how healthy he played, his five goals in 13 games was just a 31-goal pace for an 82-game season.
But, even without him either not playing or not scoring when he did play, the Maple Leafs are still in first place in the Atlantic with a record of 12-6-2.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs
At the season’s quarter mark, the Maple Leafs have shown why they’re a top contender in the Atlantic Division. Despite challenges like Matthews’ injuries and early questions about their defensive depth, the team has demonstrated stability and adaptability. Some of the biggest questions before the season started have been answered positively.
Key surprises, including Knies’ emergence as a power forward, standout goaltending depth, and a revamped blue line led by Tanev and Ekman-Larsson, have been crucial to the team’s success. While there’s still a long way to go, the Maple Leafs’ ability to thrive under adversity is a promising sign for the rest of the season.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
