The Colorado Avalanche were shutout 4-0 by the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday (Oct. 29), giving them only their second loss of the season after being beaten by the struggling Pittsburgh Penguins (3-5-0) by the same score a few days earlier. The result also marked the first time that the team suffered consecutive defeats in 2023-24 after starting the new campaign with six straight wins.
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The game was effectively over after the second period, with the Sabres sporting a 3-0 lead and out-shooting the Avalanche 20-17 heading into the final frame. Sabres’ netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen posted his first career NHL shutout after the Avalanche were unable to solve him in the third to improve Buffalo’s record to 4-5-0 while Colorado dropped to 6-2-0 on the year.
Let’s dive into three of the main takeaways from the Avalanche’s underwhelming loss at the hands of the upstart Sabres, as well as issuing a preview for the week ahead.
Bowen Byram Finding His Game
When a team starts the season with a significant winning streak as the Avalanche did, there is little room for complaints. More than likely, the stars are producing, the goalies are making the necessary stops, and the special teams units are humming along.
While that’s mostly been the case with the Avalanche, 22-year-old defenseman Bowen Byram – fresh off signing a two-year bridge deal last summer – has struggled to show why he’s worth that (and more) on his next deal. The young blueliner only has two points (one goal and one assist) to his name, which is slightly underwhelming after he tallied 10 goals and 24 points in 42 games last season.
Despite being held off the score sheet against the Sabres, Byram flashed a more confident and assertive game as he continues to develop into his full-time form as an NHLer. He led all Avalanche defenders in shot attempts (six), scoring chances (three), and high-danger chances (one) in all situations while also pacing the team’s blueliners in five-on-five usage (16:28).
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Byram also posted the best on-ice shares of shots (60%) and second-best shares of scoring chances (65%) and expected goals (69%) among Avalanche defensemen, bested only by his most frequent partner in Samuel Girard. Those results improve his impressive season-long numbers to Colorado controlling 58% of all shots, 63% of expected goals, 62% of scoring chances, and 59% of high-danger chances when Byram plays at five-on-five.
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The Avalanche have also outscored the opposition 5-3 in Byram’s five-on-five minutes so he’s not just padding empty results with no reward. The team knows what it will get from the likes of Devon Toews and Cale Makar, so getting more consistency from Byram will only serve them well in another hopeful Stanley Cup chase.
Avalanche Power Play Goes Cold
It’s not often that a power play featuring the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Makar (who left the game with an injury but later returned) and newly-minted 50-goal scorer Mikko Rantanen is kept quiet. Fortunately for the Sabres, they did just that in killing off all six of the Avalanche’s powerplay opportunities (the last came with six seconds left in the game) while also limiting them to only seven shots. The Avalanche only managed to fire 14 shot attempts at the Sabres’ net despite earning over 10 minutes with the man advantage.
While failing to convert on even one opportunity is enough cause for concern, the Avalanche’s underlying numbers on the power play this season should be worrying. They sit outside the top 10 of the league in every meaningful per-60-minute metric on the power play. Shots, scoring chances, expected goals, you name it.
They haven’t even been able to overcome their lacklustre chance generation with their finishing talent. The Avalanche power play currently sits 15th in overall efficiency (18.8%), and has been overshadowed by their excellent penalty kill which ranks fourth in the NHL (93.8%) in comparison.
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It’s only fair to note that the Sabres’ penalty kill has been equally as strong this season at 89.2% after their win over the Avalanche (sixth), but going 0-for-6 is inexcusable considering the firepower available at Colorado’s disposal.
Avalanche’s New-Look Fourth Line Dominating Opposition
Don’t look now but the Avalanche’s revamped fourth line – led by veteran utility-forward Andrew Cogliano, a penalty-killing demon in Logan O’Connor, and newcomer Fredrik Olofsson – continues to have a notable impact to start the season.
The bottom-six triumvirate was the Avalanche’s most utilized forward line with seven minutes played at five-on-five, with Colorado out-attempting the Sabres 12-2 with them on the ice. They didn’t score (or get scored on), but the line also accounted for 80% of the total expected goals share (xGF%) and out-chanced its opposition 4-1 in their minutes.
Those results follow a building trend from the fourth line at five-on-five to start the season. They’ve accounted for over 60% of all shots on goal (SF%), scoring chances (SCF%), and xGF% while also owning an even goal differential (1-1) as one of the Avalanche’s most dependable units in 2023-24, and something that looks to continue as long as all three remain healthy.
Though much attention is paid to a team’s offensive stars (and rightfully so), the fourth line and the bottom-six in general are often overlooked areas of a roster. Finding an edge in those non-star minutes can make the difference between a good, but not great team and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender who can withstand four gruelling rounds of relentless playoff hockey. Despite Colorado’s warts, their fourth line has delivered above and beyond expectations so far.
Avalanche Face Light Schedule Next Week
The Avalanche have a light schedule next week with only two games on the docket. Colorado will face a pair of Western Conference rivals in the St. Louis Blues (3-3-1) at home on Nov. 1, and the Vegas Golden Knights (8-0-1) on the road on Nov. 4.
Though the Blues have gotten off to an unremarkable start due to an impotent offense (second-last in goals per game), goaltender Jordan Binnington has kept them from keeping company with the likes of the winless San Jose Sharks. The mercurial netminder currently owns a .926 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.33 goals-against average (GAA) through five games, and is an unpredictable wildcard in every sense of the word.
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The game against the league-leading Golden Knights is of particular interest. It will pit the top two teams in the West and could be a preview for a future playoff showdown later this season. Both clubs rank within the top five of the NHL by points percentage (PTS%) and goal differential, and both of their penalty-kills sit within the top 10 league-wide.
Both of the Golden Knights’ options in the crease in Logan Thompson (.930 SV% in four games) and Adin Hill (.915 SV% in five) could prove difficult to crack, so the Avalanche must bring their best to Sin City. If not, their place atop the Central Division could be in jeopardy and what was a dream start to the season could quickly spiral into a nightmare.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.
