With only a few weeks to go until the start of the 2024 NHL Playoffs, the Colorado Avalanche are almost locked into their first-round match-up after a poor string of results has seen the Central Division title slip out of their grip.
After their recent 7-4 loss at the hands of the division-leading Dallas Stars (April 7), the Avalanche’s record dropped to 48-24-6 (102 points) and virtually guaranteed that the Stars will win the division. They are now five points clear of the Avalanche (both have 78 games played) and seven points clear of the Winnipeg Jets (who have a game in hand), meaning that the Central is theirs if they collect four points out of a possible eight over their final four games.
Though going 5-4-1 over their last 10 games has likely put the division crown out of reach and magnified the Avalanche’s defensive struggles, there are still plenty of positives to note.
Related: Avalanche Firmly in Top Tier of Contenders for 2024 Stanley Cup
Defenseman Cale Makar is a single goal away from posting the second 20-goal campaign of his young career and leads all NHL blueliners in points per game (1.15). Superstar center Nathan MacKinnon is making his case for winning the first Hart Trophy of his career, ranking fourth among all skaters in goals (48), third in assists (85), and second in points (133). Winger Mikko Rantanen has fashioned back-to-back campaigns of at least 40 goals and 100 points. Even Jonathan Drouin has tied a career-high with 53 points in a mid-career renaissance.
Still, those admirable offensive exploits have masked a concerning trend for the Avalanche heading into the 2024 NHL Playoffs. They’ve struggled to keep opponents from creating chances from dangerous areas of the ice in all situations, and haven’t gotten the goaltending to bail them out. If winning another Stanley Cup is the goal, those are two issues that must be ironed out before the postseason.
Georgiev Struggling Under Heavy Workload
Much of the blame has been directed towards the play of netminder Alexandar Georgiev who has allowed four goals or more in four of his last five starts, and 16 goals total in his last three appearances. He conceded six goals in both of the Avalanche’s games last week, a pair of frustrating losses against the Stars and the Edmonton Oilers.
On the season, the 28-year-old owns a 2.97 goals-against average (GAA) and an .899 save percentage (SV%), with both marks ranking in the bottom half of all qualified goalies league-wide (minimum 10 games played).
Georgiev does own a positive margin of goals saved above expected (GSAx) for the season according to Evolving Hockey (plus-3.7), but he’s been a net-negative since the trade deadline (minus-1) ranking 47th out of 70 qualified goalies (minimum one appearance).
Though raw goals against strips context from a goaltender’s performance like the quality of shots faced, one of the starkest examples of Georgiev’s struggles has been the number of games in which he allows three goals or more.
Georgiev did so on 31 occasions in 2022-23, which was exactly half of the 62 games he played as the Avalanche’s starter in a sterling debut season. This season, he’s posted a three-goal game in 35 out of 60 appearances, a notably higher ratio.
In terms of four-goal games, his rate jumped from 16 out of 62 in 2022-23 to a frightening 23 out of 60 this season. The Avalanche are well-equipped to overcome poor goaltending as the league’s highest-scoring team (3.71 goals per game), but winning comes much easier without spotting the opposition multiple goals every night.
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The 2023-24 season has represented a startling reversal in Georgiev’s form from 2022-23 in which he was comfortably nestled at or near the top-10 of every meaningful goaltending metric. It’s not the sole reason why the Avalanche as a whole are lacking confidence, but it’s one of the most significant with the opening round of the postseason fast approaching.
Avalanche’s Defensive Structure Looking Vulnerable
In Georgiev’s defense, the Avalanche (partially due to injuries and absences) have not performed like the underrated defensive force that they have otherwise been over the past few seasons.
In terms of the rate at which they concede goals (GA), shots (SA), scoring chances (SCA), expected goals (xGA), and high-danger chances (HDCA), the Avalanche have trended in a negative direction over the course of the season in almost every one of those metrics.
In particular, the Avalanche have seen their worst defensive performances come since the beginning of March despite winning 11 out of 17 games. They’ve allowed three or more goals eight times, four or more six times, and five or more three times.
| Statistic | Season | Jan. 1 | Mar. 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 3 (15) | 3.1 (17) | 2.9 (15) |
| SA | 29.8 (16) | 30.8 (23) | 31.7 (26) |
| SCA | 26.9 (7) | 27 (9) | 27.8 (17) |
| xGA | 3.1 (19) | 3.2 (23) | 3.2 (23) |
| HDCA | 12.1 (21) | 12.3 (25) | 12.4 (26) |
While the Avalanche have struggled to parry opposing offenses at five-on-five, most of the team’s struggles can be pinpointed to the penalty kill. Their rates of allowing shots, high-danger chances, and expected goals all rank 21st or lower across the league since the beginning of March, but strong goaltending has managed to keep the penalty kill afloat with their 84% kill-rate over that span ranking sixth in the NHL.
The shorthanded netminding and reliable power play (24.6% – sixth in the NHL) have papered over some of the cracks, but the Avalanche should not overlook what could eventually become their fatal flaw come playoff time.
Avalanche Still Capable of Winning 2024 Stanley Cup
For all of their very legitimate flaws on the defensive end and in the crease, the Avalanche remain one of the most talented offensive groups in the NHL. They can trot out elite players at every position bar goaltender, and bolstered their questionable forward depth at the trade deadline by acquiring versatile attackers capable of moving up and down the lineup as head coach Jared Bednar sees fit.
Unless the Avalanche end up facing the Oilers at some point in the playoffs, there should be no series in which they do not possess two of the top three players on the ice in MacKinnon and Makar. Those two are a pair of proven game-breakers with the ability to almost single-handedly decide a seven-game series.
That fact shouldn’t dissuade discussions around how to address the team’s shortcomings, but the Avalanche are in a much better position than nearly all of their conference rivals and should feel confident about their chances at winning the second Stanley Cup of the MacKinnon era.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
