Given their results in the last few seasons, the tragic loss of Johnny Gaudreau, and the lack of major additions to the core group, it is easy to see why predictions have the Columbus Blue Jackets finishing in the basement of the NHL standings.
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The Athletic’s model has the Blue Jackets finishing with just 68.6 points (from ‘Columbus Blue Jackets 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings’, The Athletic, 9/30/2024). However, there are reasons to believe that the team will outperform the models and could provide fans with a competitive and entertaining season. If things go really well, the Blue Jackets could find themselves competing for a playoff spot in March or April.
Growth From Blue Jackets’ Young Guns
The organization has added a lot of talent in the last few drafts. While players like James Malatesta and Denton Mateychuck will continue to grow in the American Hockey League (at least for now), others look ready to take big steps forward. One player who looks ready to take a giant leap forward this season is Kent Johnson.
Johnson was noticeable throughout training camp and made his mark in the season opener with a goal and an assist. After a tough sophomore season, he signed a “prove-it” contract this summer and has taken it to heart. With more growth and development, Johnson could easily put up a 50+-point season after scoring 40 points as a rookie in 2022-23.
Other young players who are hoping to show progress in 2024-25 are Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko. Fantilli was buzzing around all preseason and has already started to show the star player he should become. Columbus would love to see him force his way into the top-line center role by the end of the campaign, while Marchenko will look to score 30+ goals after reaching 44 goals in 137 games over the last two seasons. On top of these two players, Cole Sillinger, David Jiricek, and Yegor Chinakhov will also be looking to grow into more productive and well-rounded NHLers this year.
A player’s development is difficult to predict since it’s never linear. But if the Blue Jackets can see some nice jumps forward from most of their young talent, they will win more games than many have predicted. The future is very bright in Columbus, and it may not be as far away as some think.
Dean Evason’s Coaching Impact
Arguably, the biggest boost to the team this offseason was hiring Dean Evason. After watching a coaching carousel for the last few years, the Blue Jackets hope to have found their man in the former Minnesota Wild head coach. Since John Tortorella, the team hasn’t had a head coach with any previous NHL experience, let alone success. Brad Larsen and Pascal Vincent were both promoted form the assistant coach position. But taking over the helm of a rebuilding roster proved too much for either of them to find success.
After Don Waddell was brought in as the new general manager, he made it apparent that experience would be a key factor in who the organization hired as their next head coach. After a patient search, Waddell announced on July 23, 2024, that Evason would be the next head coach for the Blue Jackets.
Related: Blue Jackets’ Dean Evason Offering Players a Fresh Start
His attitude and approach have already earned him praise from his players. However, more noticeable are the changes in the style and system he’s made on the ice. The defensemen are free to activate and engage in the offensive zone. Multiple times in the season opener versus the Wild, a defenseman was seen carrying the puck into the offensive zone and trying to make a play with it. They also didn’t rush back to the point but stayed low in the play even after the puck left their stick.
This new approach will greatly benefit some of the more offensively gifted defensemen, none more than Zach Werenski. The star blueliner was excellent against Minnesota and generated quite a few rushes. This offensive freedom could allow him to have a career year in points.
A laser from Z for his first of the campaign! @FanaticsBook | #CBJ pic.twitter.com/Vcc57FMbmy
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) October 11, 2024
The Blue Jackets have also become much more aggressive all over the ice. They were buzzing around, finishing checks, and harassing puck carriers all night. While only one game, this will likely become a key component of the team’s identity and felt reminiscent of the teams coached by Tortorella in the past. Being tough to play against was also Evason’s hallmark in five seasons with the Wild. With these new changes, the Blue Jackets should be a more consistent and competitive team night after night.
Goaltending Improvements
The team has been brutal in allowing goals over the last two seasons. For the Blue Jackets to have any hope of improving their record from last year, they have to do a better job of keeping the puck out of their net. While many are skeptical about the Elvis Merzilikins and Daniil Tarasov tandem, there are reasons to believe they will improve in 2024-25. For one, the defensive structure in front of them should be vastly superior to previous years. While the goalie is the last line of defense, he certainly isn’t the only line. The forwards and defensemen should be better in front of the net this year, and the team should spend more time in the offensive zone, which will help.
But even with their warts, both goalies have shown their potential. Under Tortorella, Merlikins put up a .923 save percentage (SV%) and 2.35 goals-against average (GAA) in 2019-20 and .916 SV% and 2.77 GAA in 2020-21. Tarasov had some great moments last season while putting up a .908 SV% and 3.18 GAA. The biggest problem for both of them is their ability to stay healthy. If Merlikins can return to his early career form and they both stay healthy, the Blue Jackets should see a noticeable improvement in goals against.
Hope for 2024-25 NHL Season and Beyond
While it is easy to write off Columbus as a lottery team, there are reasons to believe they can outperform expectations. The combination of young talent, solid veterans, an experienced coach, and improved goaltending could surprise a lot of teams. They will be looking to make every night difficult for their opponent. Could they make the playoffs? It may not be likely, but it is more possible than most are giving them credit for. Will it require a lot of things to go right? Absolutely. But there is no reason to think this won’t be a fun season no matter the outcome.
