3 Blues Regression Candidates in 2023-24

The St. Louis Blues had several players that underperformed last season, and many of them will look to rebound this season. However, that doesn’t stop them from having a few regression candidates on the team this season. Keep in mind that being a regression candidate doesn’t mean that the player will have a bad season, but I am picking them to have a slight dip in their production from last season. Let’s get into three Blues regression candidates for the 2023-24 season.

Brayden Schenn

Brayden Schenn, in my opinion, is not a 60-point player at this stage in his career anymore. Although he had 21 goals and 65 points last season, I don’t think he can or will replicate those numbers again. He will still have a large impact on the Blues this season, but I expect his production to drop.

He could still put up 20 goals and 30 assists this season, but I don’t think he should be expected to do much more than that. He’ll turn 32 years old before the season begins and he’s played a lot of tough minutes throughout his career. At some point, regression will come for him, and I expect it to start this season. He’s been phenomenal for the Blues since being traded to St. Louis in 2017, outside of an outlier poor 2020-21 season, where he had 36 points in 55 games.

I expect Schenn to play fewer minutes per game this season, but that won’t be the only reason for a dip in production. He’s likely to anchor the third line for the Blues, and that might not be a high-scoring line. However, he could end up on the second line if head coach Craig Berube feels Kevin Hayes is a better fit for the third line. It’ll be interesting to see Schenn’s results in an attempt to follow up a productive last two seasons.

Justin Faulk

It’s clear that Justin Faulk’s defensive game, which was on display a couple of seasons ago, has already regressed. This pick is based on his offensive production taking a dip, and I believe it will. There are a multitude of reasons for this pick, but I’m certain that durability won’t be a reason. He’s missed just eight games in four seasons with the Blues, and two of those eight were during the COVID-19-suspended 2019-20 season.

Part of my predicted Faulk regression is the fact that the Blues won’t rely on him for much offense if Torey Krug and Scott Perunovich are running both power-play units. While he hasn’t been much of a power play merchant in his time with the Blues, those opportunities matter as the team tries to fix their defensive issues at 5-on-5. I’m not sure how much Berube and his new staff will want to have blueliners push offense, especially since Faulk is a player who they rely on defensively. It comes down to the simple fact that I don’t expect Faulk to reach 50 points this season, but I’d gladly be wrong about that.

Sammy Blais

I have always been a huge fan of Sammy Blais, but I don’t think the level of production that he had after being traded back to the Blues last season is sustainable. I have zero doubt that he will be valuable to the Blues this season, but his production is more than likely to regress at least a little bit.

Since his return to the Blues last season, Blais put up terrific offensive numbers with 20 points in 31 games. He looked both healthier and more confident after a tough stint with the New York Rangers.

Source: Hockey Reference

This chart makes it clear that Blais was a completely different player with the Blues in 2023 than at any point during his time with the Rangers. Even without a lot of production, he is still effective with his willingness to throw his body around and block shots. I expect his numbers to level out this season, but he’ll still be worth way more than the $1 million salary that he has this season.

The Blues don’t have many regression candidates after numerous players had down seasons in 2022-23. Outside of these three picks and maybe a defenseman like Calle Rosen, there are no other real candidates. The Blues need bounce-back seasons from several players this season and I believe they will get them.