The NHL’s salary cap is going up—and that means the league’s financial landscape is shifting fast. For big-market teams, it’s a green light to spend, reload, and take bigger swings in free agency. But for clubs like the Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets, it’s a little more complicated.
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More money floating around the league doesn’t just open doors—it raises the cost of staying in the fight. And in Canada’s smaller markets, where every dollar matters just a bit more, that cost can feel like a weight.
The NHL’s Salary Cap Is Rising—But So Are the Stakes
The 2025–26 season will see the NHL’s salary cap jump to $95.5 million, and it’s expected to jump all the way to $113.5 million by 2027-28. That’s a significant leap from where things stood just a few seasons ago, when the cap flatlined due to the pandemic.
For most of the league, that’s excellent news. More cap space means more flexibility, more room to lock up stars, and more opportunities to build depth. But it also means the market for top players gets more expensive—and staying competitive becomes that much harder if your budget isn’t keeping pace.
The Small-Market Reality Means There’s No Room for Mistakes
That’s the challenge facing the Senators and Jets. These aren’t poor teams—both have solid ownership and passionate fan bases—but they lack the financial muscle of places like Toronto or New York.
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Take Winnipeg, for example. The Canada Life Centre has one of the smallest seating capacities in the NHL, and the club leans heavily on gate revenue to make the books work. That leaves them more vulnerable to swings in attendance or playoff misses.
In Ottawa, there’s more hope on the horizon, especially with the LeBreton Flats arena project finally inching forward. A downtown location would mean more premium seating, better corporate partnerships, and a serious boost to the team’s bottom line. But for now, the Senators are still in an outdated building and working with a limited commercial footprint compared to bigger-market teams.
And then there’s the Canadian Dollar. With most NHL revenues in U.S. Dollars and many expenses paid in Canadian Dollars, exchange rates continue to put added pressure on Canadian clubs—especially the ones without massive national media deals or international branding power.
The Jets Are Facing a Crunch
In Winnipeg, the situation is particularly tight. The Jets can’t afford to miss on signings, plain and simple. Alongside the regularly discussed core (e.g., Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey, and Mark Scheifele), if prospects don’t turn into reliable contributors on affordable deals, Winnipeg may have to overspend to stay in the hunt.
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And that’s precisely what small-market teams try to avoid. There’s a narrow window here—but it’s still open. The question is how long they can keep it that way.
The Senators’ Core Is Set—Now Comes the Hard Part
Meanwhile, in Ottawa, there’s a very different kind of optimism. Relatively new ownership under Michael Andlauer has brought stability, and the team has already locked up its young stars. With Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Jake Sanderson leading the charge, the Sens have built the kind of foundation most rebuilding teams would kill for.
But as the cap rises, so will the pressure to fill out the rest of the roster. The top-end talent is there—but depth wins games in April and May. That’s where things can get tricky financially. Until the new arena generates real revenue, Ottawa still has to be cautious.
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Overspending on middle-six forwards or veterans who don’t move the needle could tie their hands at a critical time. Smart spending matters everywhere. In Ottawa, it could be the difference between being a high-performing playoff team and being a team that just missed out… again.
The “Salary Cap League” Illusion
On paper, the NHL’s salary cap is supposed to make everything fair—a level playing field where the only difference between franchises is how well they draft, develop, and manage the cap. But in practice? That’s not the whole story.
The Toronto Maple Leafs can afford a bad contract or two and keep rolling. The Edmonton Oilers, thanks to the McDavid/Draisaitl era, has more leeway than most. Even the Calgary Flames, amid a retool, has room to experiment.
For teams like Winnipeg and Ottawa, there’s no such luxury. They have to be efficient, forward-thinking, and maybe a little lucky. They need their prospects to pan out. They need to avoid long-term mistakes. And they need to time their windows just right.
So, Can the Senators and the Jets Keep Up?
Yes—but it’s going to take some sharp moves and a little bit of patience. Ottawa looks closer to breaking through, especially if the LeBreton project unlocks the financial tools the team has been missing. Winnipeg has less wiggle room but still has the pieces to compete if it gets meaningful contributions from within.
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The rising salary cap isn’t the enemy. It just raises the bar. And for teams that already have less room to stretch, every dollar—and every decision—carries more weight.
The rules are the same for everyone. But for small-market Canadian teams, the art is still a little harder.
