With less than a week to go until the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline (Mar. 8), the Colorado Avalanche got a head start on their business by trading forward Kurtis MacDermid to the New Jersey Devils for a 2024 seventh-round draft pick and prospect Zakhar Bardakov. The move gives general manager Chris MacFarland additional flexibility by freeing up nearly $1 million in cap space, providing the Avalanche just over $2.2 million to play with ahead of the big day.
The Avalanche are in a strong position heading into the stretch run of the 2023-24 season, with an overall record of 37-20-5 (79 points), placing them third in the Central Division and fourth in the Western Conference. The group has remained near the top of the standings despite having to weather extended absences from key players in Artturi Lehkonen (35 games), Valeri Nichushkin (22), Samuel Girard (21), and, of course, captain Gabriel Landeskog, who last played in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
Related: Avalanche’s Top 5 Assets at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline
The Avalanche clearly have Stanley Cup potential, and the front office has a duty to the fanbase and the players to bolster a competitive roster ahead of the playoffs. That the lineup has clear holes to address is a double-edged sword. On one hand, management knows exactly what type of player to pursue. On the other, there may be a limited supply of said player, or other organizations may leverage their advantageous position to extract more value from the Avalanche.
Such is the reality of a Stanley Cup contender, and the Avalanche must find a way to acquire solutions without breaking the bank – easier said than done. With that in mind, let’s dive into the three key spots in the lineup that the Avalanche must address and highlight several potential trade candidates.
Trade #1: Acquire a Top-6 Center to Bolster Forward Group
At this point of the season, it’s no secret that the Avalanche’s biggest need at the trade deadline is a second-line center, a role they’ve been attempting to fill since Nazem Kadri’s departure following the 2022 Stanley Cup win.
Related: Avalanche Running Out of Top-Six Center Trade Targets
MacFarland took multiple stabs at addressing the position by acquiring a pair of centers, Ryan Johansen from the Nashville Predators and Ross Colton from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Through three-quarters of the campaign, the two pivots have experienced varying levels of on-ice success, though neither appears to be the top-six solution the Avalanche so desires.
Though the 31-year-old Johansen had a tough 2022-23 season (28 points in 55 games), there was hope that the Avalanche’s up-tempo system could reinvigorate him and make use of his offensive instincts. It was a decent gamble, as he’s accrued five 60-point seasons in his career and was only one year removed from tallying 63 points in 79 games.
While Johansen got off to a strong start with five goals and six points in his first 12 games while averaging the fifth-highest time on ice (ATOI) among all Avalanche forwards, the shine quickly wore off. In 50 games since then, he’s scored eight goals and 17 points while dropping to 10th among forwards in ATOI over that span. The veteran pivot has seen his production, shot rates, and overall involvement diminish in tandem, and he’s been one of the most disappointing off-season acquisitions in the NHL as a result.
On the other hand, Colton has seen an uptick in scoring and ice time since the first month of the season. He tallied three goals and four points in his first 12 games while sitting eighth among forwards in ATOI.
Since Nov. 10, Colton ranks fifth among Avalanche forwards in goals (10) and points (27) while averaging 14:27 per night in all situations (seventh). He’s also centered one of the team’s most effective lines while being flanked by Logan O’Connor and Miles Wood, accounting for 56.6% of the expected goals share at five-on-five (38th out of 116 lines with 125 minutes played).
By all accounts, the trade for Colton has been a success and gives the Avalanche one less thing to worry about at the deadline. Unfortunately, few teams are able to make a deep playoff run without a legitimate second-line center, and the Johansen debacle has magnified a long-standing issue in need of immediate resolution.
Potential Trade Targets: Adam Henrique (Anaheim Ducks), Casey Mittelstadt (Buffalo Sabres), Scott Laughton (Philadelphia Flyers)
Trade #2: Acquire a Backup Goalie to Relieve Georgiev
After a 2022-23 season in which Alexandar Georgiev started 62 games (third among all goalies), won 40 games (tied-first), and posted a .919 save percentage/SV% (tied-seventh), his struggles this season have been made even more stark.
Related: Avalanche Goalie Targets with Fleury Off the Board
Georgiev is once again managing a demanding workload in 2023-24 and either leads or shares the lead for games played (50), starts (49), and wins (31). The only difference is that it appears as though the heavy usage is taking a toll, with the 28-year-old’s .900 SV% ranking 40th among goalies to have played at least 10 games this season.
I should note that he’s saved 6.1 goals above expected (GSAx), according to MoneyPuck, which puts him among the top 20 of qualified goalies (minimum 10 games played). This suggests that he’s actually performed well behind a leakier-than-usual Avalanche defensive system. However, it still stands that a dependable backup who can give him some rest down the stretch would ensure Georgiev is in peak condition come the first round of the playoffs.
The Avalanche have handed Ivan Prosvetov (11 games played) and Justus Annunen (five) some run in the crease. Still, neither possesses a ton of high-stakes experience nor has impressed against higher-quality opposition.
Prosvetov has posted a .944 SV% in nine games in the American Hockey League (AHL) since being sent down, but his .895 SV% with the Avalanche during the campaign’s first half doesn’t inspire much confidence. Annunen has performed well in spot duty with a .913 SV%, but that’s in a very limited sample size and was a .898 SV% before a shutout against the pitiful Chicago Blackhawks.
If Georgiev were to go down at any point in the next few months, there are serious doubts about whether the pair could step in and backstop a Stanley Cup hopeful. Georgiev’s durability means that a backup goalie isn’t the biggest priority, but enough uncertainty exists that MacFarland should at least make serious inquiries at the deadline.
Potential Trade Targets: Jake Allen (Montreal Canadiens), Kaapo Kahkonen (San Jose Sharks), Charlie Lindgren (Washington Capitals)
Trade #3: Add a Depth Center, a Defenseman, or Both
Assuming Johansen is an outgoing piece in any trade for a second-line center, the Avalanche will still need to find a pivot to line up on their fourth line and sit behind MacKinnon, the incoming center, and Colton on the depth chart.
The team recently waived and sent down Frederik Olofsson who has played 55 games for the Avalanche this season, and have tried out Ben Meyers (nine games) and Chris Wagner (seven) at various points in the campaign. While not much is expected of them, neither has made much of an impact, with two points between the pair. If Olofsson is truly out of the picture, a defensive-minded depth center will be high on the deadline priority list.
In terms of blue line deployment, there is a real need for an everyday option on the third pair. Sam Malinski (23 games played), Caleb Jones (20), and the now-departed MacDermid (29) have been rotating on the bottom pair this season, with none of them able to stake a claim to a full-time role besides Jack Johnson.
While Cale Makar and Devon Toews have powerplay duties covered, there is an opportunity for any potential blueline addition to assume a steady role on the penalty kill. Makar and Toews also lead all Avalanche defenders in shorthanded ice time, so adding a capable penalty-killer could relieve some of their burden and allow them to focus more on even-strength play.
Any depth acquisitions should be dependable and versatile, with a thought spared to potential injuries that could force players to move higher up in the lineup. Few teams remain fully healthy across a Cup run that spans nearly three months, so exercising some foresight could be the difference between another title and an excruciating stumble at the finish line.
Potential Trade Targets: Sam Carrick (Ducks), Nic Dowd (Capitals), Nick Seeler (Flyers), Alexandre Carrier (Nashville Predators)
MacFarland Has Big Decisions to Make at 2024 Trade Deadline
The Avalanche are well-positioned to challenge for the second Stanley Cup of the MacKinnon era, but several weak spots in the lineup threaten to derail the team’s championship aspirations. They possess the assets to make the necessary trades to address those vulnerabilities at the deadline. Still, adequate targets have either proven difficult to come by or carry acquisition costs that outweigh their on-ice value.
The current iteration of the Avalanche has both the ability and the opportunity to cement its already sparkling legacy. It’s up to MacFarland and company to be aggressive and calculated within reason; who knows when – or if – the chance to do so will arise again.
