The New York Islanders had their fair share of playoff runs at the beginning of the 2020s, and the organization has maintained much of that core today. It’s been three seasons since the franchise last won a playoff series, the core of the roster consists mainly of players in their mid-to-late 30s, and the team has dropped 22 of their first 35 games in the 2024-25 season. While injuries provide some grounds for excuses, the performance of this roster, even when healthy, doesn’t make a compelling case that this roster is equipped to contend for the 2025 Stanley Cup. A full-blown rebuild is not the path to take for the Islanders, but neither is continuing to run back the current, aging core.
Islanders Should, But Won’t Sell
It’s important to note that, at least for now, the Islanders are not positioning themselves as sellers. With Lou Lamoriello at the helm, the veteran general manager remains within reach of David Poile’s all-time wins record (1,533) and has shown no inclination toward rebuilding. His unwavering support for this roster is evident in the long-term contracts and no-trade clauses he has given out. At 82 years old, it seems unlikely that Lamoriello would dedicate his time to anything other than pursuing contention.
Related: Insider Believes Islanders’ Brock Nelson Likely to Test Free Agent Market in 2025
Additionally, the Islanders have found success with this core in the past, and management has plenty of reasons to attribute the team’s slow start to factors beyond the roster itself. Key injuries to Mat Barzal, Anthony Duclair, Alexander Romanov, and Adam Pelech have undoubtedly impacted performance, yet the team has remained competitive, sitting just a few games out of a playoff spot. While the case for maintaining the core is easy to make, doing so would ultimately be a disastrous decision for many reasons.
Nelson and Palmieri Will Get Overpaid in 2025
Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri have been the Islanders’ most impactful duo to begin the season. Alongside Maxim Tsyplakov, the Islanders’ second line holds a 60% goals percentage (G%) and 57.2% expected goals percentage (xG%), according to MoneyPuck. They rank top 10 in G% (min. 200 minutes) and second in xG% (min. 200 minutes) in the entire NHL. However, these are precisely the reasons the Islanders need to trade the two forwards.
Nelson has been as reliable of a center the Islanders could have hoped for throughout his career. He has averaged a 37-goal pace over the past four seasons while providing above-average defense in the top six. Whether Barry Trotz, Lane Lambert, or Patrick Roy is on the bench, he has had the confidence of his coaches due to his elite contributions.
Nelson, at 33 years old, is in the final season of his six-year, $36 million contract, which carries an annual cap hit of $6 million. By the start of next season, he’ll be 34, nearing an age where players typically begin to decline—a trend already evident this season. His next contract is expected to surpass his current $6 million cap hit, likely spanning multiple years and potentially including trade restrictions that could extend into his late 30s.
Palmieri has not been as consistent as Nelson over recent seasons, but a 2023-24 resurgence under head coach Roy and a dominant start to the 2024-25 season leaves him as one of the team’s best forwards. In 37 games with Roy last season, Palmieri scored 19 goals, a 42-goal pace, and finished the season with a career-high 30 goals. In 72 total career games under Roy, he has 31 goals, a 35-goal pace over an 82-game season, leading the team in goals in that span. The sample size is large enough to show just how dominant Palmieri is under Roy, but for the same reasons as Nelson, he should be traded.
Palmieri turns 34 years old in February and is in the final year of his four-year, $20 million contract. He, too, will be looking for a final payday, and given he is outperforming his stat line from the 2020-21 season when the Islanders acquired him, he is likely seeking a pay raise. The algebra is simple: if Palmieri landed a $5 million annual cap hit following a 16-goal, 34-point pace season in 2020-21, he would certainly negotiate a more expensive deal now that he is on pace for 28 goals and 59 points, each of which would be career highs. Whether he will prioritize maximizing every dollar remains uncertain, but the possibility is very real.
Contract Philosophies
Sports is a business, and hockey is no different. The NHL is not like baseball where teams can technically pay as much money as they would like. In the NHL, there is a salary cap minimum and ceiling. Each changes by the season, but no team is allowed to go over the ceiling.
In the salary cap era (2005-06 to now), Stanley Cup-winning teams have found a way to generate rosters worth more than their cap hit. Different computer models come out with different values per player, but successful teams always have impactful roster players on value-deals.
This concept is seen no better than in last season’s Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers. Key contributors like Sam Reinhart, who earned $6.5 million at the time, have since secured an extension worth $8.625 million annually. Carter Verhaeghe, previously making under $4.2 million, will earn $7 million annually following his recent contract extension. Brandon Montour, whose cap hit was just $3.5 million last season, now brings in over $7 million per year, while Gustav Forsling’s salary jumped from $2.5 million to $5.75 million annually.
These salary raises reflect the success these players found with the Panthers, as evidenced by the lucrative contracts signed by contributors like Anthony Stolarz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anton Lundell. Historically, teams tend to overpay for players coming off a Stanley Cup victory, but the Panthers’ 2023-24 roster was undoubtedly, primarily constructed on value contracts. While there were exceptions, such as Sergei Bobrovsky’s $10 million cap hit, the underpaid contributions of players like Montour, Reinhart, Forsling, and Verhaeghe allowed the team to absorb occasional overpays.
This trend is not unique to the Panthers; it is a hallmark of successful NHL teams and past Stanley Cup champions. Across the league, winning rosters consistently feature more players on team-friendly or fair contracts than on overpaid ones, with those value deals outweighing the impact of costlier contracts.
This observation is no easy feat to successfully deploy. Bill Zito put together a masterclass in roster construction that many NHL fans laughed at, evident in trades like the Matthew Tkachuk for Mackenzie Weegar and Jonathan Huberdeau blockbuster that landed Florida a perennial superstar in his low-20s. However, it is easy to use Zito’s, and many others’ strategies in assessing future decisions.
If the Islanders were to extend Nelson on a three-year deal worth $7 million annually, how much value would it truly offer? The deal would cover his mid-to-late 30s. Even if he managed to maintain his current production levels, such a deal would be, at best, fair value.
And that’s assuming the annual figure stays at $7 million, which seems unlikely given his current $6 million salary. After all, Nelson signed his existing deal following a 25-goal, 53-point season, which accounted for roughly 7.4% of the salary cap at the time. Applying that same percentage to the projected $98 million salary cap next season would result in a contract closer to $7.2 million annually, without factoring in his improved production.
Considering Nelson has developed into a near-40-goal, 75-point player, his agent could reasonably push for a four or five-year contract worth upwards of $8.5 million annually. Whether they will is known only to Nelson, his agent, and Lamoriello, but the fact he is expected to test the market shows he’s not likely to accept a team-friendly deal. With Nelson likely to fight for every penny and the Islanders a long shot to make the playoffs, selling him now is the perfect way to obtain valuable assets and avoid another hefty contract that ages like milk.
The same logic applies to Palmieri. On track for a career-high in goals and points, he could also command a significant raise this offseason. A contract mirroring his current cap hit, adjusted to next year’s projected salary cap, would land him at approximately $6 million annually, even before accounting for his surge in production. While his historically inconsistent numbers might limit his negotiating power, it’s hard to imagine he signs for less than $6 million unless he prioritizes helping the Islanders — a gamble no one should rely on.
If either player is willing to sign a team-friendly extension, it’s a different story. Nelson agreeing to a two or three-year deal worth around $6.25 million annually would balance his improved performance with the team’s need for cap flexibility, keeping a strong top-six center at a manageable cost. For Palmieri, a similar-term deal at $4.5 million annually would provide him a final NHL payday while ensuring he remains with a coach who has revitalized his career in his mid-30s. These two contracts would offer upside and flexibility for the Islanders, allowing the front office to bring in additional talent. However, signing the deals the two forwards likely seek would make it impossible to improve the roster any further.
If Nelson or Palmieri prioritize maximizing their earnings, the Islanders must trade them. While both are excellent players and likely to remain impactful in the coming seasons, this very fact makes it essential to move them. Extending their contracts on non-team-friendly terms would worsen an already challenging salary cap situation, plunging the team deeper into financial constraints. Importantly, hefty extensions would further hinder an already underperforming roster’s ability to compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future. Trading the duo for assets would not only create valuable cap space but also enable a swift retooling process, positioning the team for a stronger contention window in the mid-to-late 2020s.
What Could Trades Look Like?
Trading Nelson and Palmieri not only addresses the previously mentioned concerns regarding value in their next contracts but also positions the Islanders to acquire significant assets in return. Each player would likely command at least a first-round pick, with Nelson potentially drawing a return similar to Bo Horvat in 2023 or Elias Lindholm in 2024 — deals that netted their teams first-round picks, prospects, and more.
Given the Islanders’ lack of NHL-likely prospects, the addition of first-round selections would be invaluable for rebuilding their pipeline. As well, these draft picks wouldn’t necessarily need to be used. As demonstrated in 2022 with the acquisition of Romanov, the Islanders could flip these picks for young NHL-ready talent, ensuring a quicker impact rather than waiting four to five years for prospects to develop.
What Would These Trades Mean for the Islanders?
By trading Nelson and Palmieri, the Islanders would finally acknowledge that this core no longer has what it takes to contend and shift their focus toward building a foundation for future success. This strategy mirrors the approach taken by the Panthers a few years ago, who recognized that extending Huberdeau at his desired price would not offer good value, even after his 85-assist, 115-point campaign that led them to a President’s Trophy victory. Instead, they traded him to the Flames for Tkachuk, a move that prioritized long-term success over sentimentality and helped them win a Stanley Cup. The Islanders would not be able to replicate this move, but the reasoning behind it should be copied.
The case to move Nelson and Palmieri is very simple: if the Islanders genuinely aim to compete for a Stanley Cup, signing these players to expensive, long-term contracts would only hinder their flexibility and ability to bring home Lord Stanley. Winning a Stanley Cup is not just about acquiring good players — it’s about finding value. It’s better to take a risk on acquiring undervalued assets than to commit resources to aging players who may not deliver the same return on investment, and history proves it. If the Islanders’ goal is to stay competitive for a playoff spot, retaining Nelson and Palmieri is the right move. However, if their goal is to win a Stanley Cup, trading the two forwards becomes a necessity.
