With Brock Nelson reportedly uninterested in a contract extension with the New York Islanders, trade speculation is gaining momentum. With the 2025 Trade Deadline less than two months away, the likelihood of the 33-year-old center being moved continues to grow. If that happens, the Islanders should carefully evaluate their options, and targeting the Dallas Stars’ Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque would be a great move.
Who Are Stankoven & Bourque?
Stankoven, 21, was selected by the Stars in the second round of the 2021 Draft. Despite possessing first-round talent, he slipped to the 47th pick due to concerns about his smaller frame, standing at 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds. However, he has consistently silenced his doubters, showcasing his skill and tenacity throughout his development, posting 79 goals and 201 points over 107 games in the Western Hockey League as captain of the Kamloops Blazers in his final two seasons with the club. In his first professional season in 2023-24, he tallied 24 goals and 57 points in 47 American Hockey League (AHL) games before earning a call-up to the NHL.
Stankoven debuted on Feb. 24, 2024, against the Carolina Hurricanes and scored his first NHL goal against the Islanders on Feb. 26. He concluded last season just two games short of losing his rookie eligibility, registering six goals and 14 points in 24 games. However, this season, he has struggled to find the level of production he had hoped for but still has contributed with four goals and 18 points in 37 games. However, he is shooting just 4% and has -6.2 goals above expected, a tie for the lowest mark in the NHL behind only Pierre-Luc Dubois, according to MoneyPuck. Stankoven is an elite finisher, so he has purely been getting unlucky, making now a great time to buy low.
It is safe to assume the Stars would prefer to shy away from moving Stankoven, so a pivot to Bourque would be a decent alternative. The young center turned 23 years old yesterday (Jan. 8) and has much less value than Stankoven. In 34 NHL games this season, he has just two goals and eight points. However, he scored 26 goals and 77 points in 71 AHL games last season. He is averaging just over 11 minutes per night this season and has logged only 12 minutes of total ice time on the power play. In an elevated role, his production will undoubtedly increase.
What is Nelson’s Value?
With the Stars losing Tyler Seguin for the remainder of the regular season due to a hip injury, they need help down the middle. Given Nelson is likely to be the most valuable center available on the trade market, the Stars are almost certain to have interest, and the price will be steep.
Related: Islanders Not Trading Nelson & Palmieri Would Prove Disastrous
Nelson has struggled of late, but he has scored over 30 goals in each of the past three seasons. Last season, Elias Lindholm had just nine goals and 32 points in 49 games with the Calgary Flames but returned a haul that included a first-round pick, Andrei Kuzmenko, and prospect Hunter Brzustewicz, among other assets. The season prior the Islanders brought in Bo Horvat for a first-round pick, Anthony Beauvillier, and prospect Aatu Raty. With Nelson sitting at 10 goals and 21 points through 40 games so far this season, he should return a similar package.
Blueprinting a Trade
The Islanders’ dream package for Nelson would consist of both Stankoven and a first-round pick. While neither asset is equal to the value of Nelson, they each are substantial and would play valuable roles in an Islanders retool. However, it is highly unlikely that the package will be offered unless an intense bidding war goes down.
With that, there are two routes to take. If Stankoven becomes available, acquiring him as the centerpiece of a deal, along with a second-round pick to balance the trade, would still be a smart move for the Islanders. While targeting Dallas’ 2025 first-round pick makes sense, it is likely to fall in the 25-32 range, meaning the chances of landing a player with Stankoven’s potential are slim. Additionally, the Kamloops native’s age allows the Islanders to expedite their retooling, rather than waiting three to four years for a draft pick to develop and reach the NHL
If Stankoven is off the table, a trade for Nelson could still work, but the package would need to resemble the deals that Lindholm and Horvat secured for their respective teams. Bourque would serve as the Raty/Brzustewicz in the deal, a 2025 first-round pick would be part of the return, and a third asset would be required. Ideally, a prospect like Christian Kyrou would be included, especially if Noah Dobson is moved, but a second-round pick could also fill that role.
To add further value to the trade, the Islanders could retain some of Nelson’s salary and take on a cap dump like Matt Dumba and his $3.75 million cap hit. However, if they went down this path, they would need another asset to help offset the financial burden.
The Islanders should focus on maximizing peak value in return for Nelson. It is better to secure one or two impactful assets than to settle for three or four smaller ones. With the Stars still in possession of most of their future draft picks, a deep prospect pool, and a pressing need to fill Seguin’s void at center, they look like a match made in heaven for the Islanders and Nelson.
