Looking at the Tampa Bay Lightning’s early-season transition microstats with zone entries and zone exits, it’s fair to say the team has some work to do. Before the season, fans knew this Lightning squad would look much different compared to previous seasons. With a record of 7-6-1, they will look to break away from the middle of the pack in the standings as the season progresses.
Related: Lightning Strikes: McDonagh, Cooper, Gretzky & More
Now that I’ve covered zone entries and exits, what about another under-covered sector in hockey? Passing stats are limited to assists in the public sphere, and the NHL doesn’t provide any additional data. Here’s a look at how the Lightning have done with passing stats this season.
Microstats Tracking Project Background
I plan to hand-track microstats for the Lightning throughout the 2024-25 season. This dataset will include data points such as passes, zone entries, and additional stats the NHL doesn’t cover. I will continue to share my findings throughout the season, so stay tuned for updates.
Passing is an undervalued sector of analysis for a variety of reasons. To start, shots that spring directly from a passing play have a higher conversion rate against goaltenders due to pre-shot goalie movement. Moreover, passes from behind the goal line and across the crease also increase the odds of scoring. I’ve covered four full games at five-on-five for the Lightning this season (Oct. 11, Oct. 15, Oct. 19, Oct. 22). With that, who’s been most effective at exiting the zone in 2024-25?
Passing Analysis: Overall Team
When analyzing passing stats, players who make the final pass before a shot on goal provide the most passing value to their teammates. Their ability to use time and space to find teammates for the best quality shot on the net isn’t covered enough around the NHL. Surprisingly, Brayden Point leads the team in primary shot assists this season with seven, followed by Victor Hedman and Conor Geekie with five.
The Lightning must move the puck around the zone more frequently before their shot attempts to get the defense and goaltender out of position. What are some different passing styles to generate those scoring chances?
Passing Analysis: Individual Spotlight
There are two common passing archetypes in the NHL. As I mentioned in the zone entries article, no two players generate offense the same way. The two different styles are a quality-over-quantity approach and a possession-driven passing style.
Quality Over Quantity
Players who look for quality over quantity with their passes tend to play with more risk, firing cross-slot seam and goal-line passes, even if there’s a chance it gets picked off. These players look to find that high-danger play, utilizing the entire offensive zone to get the goaltender out of position before the shot. Players like Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have perfected this skill and can execute no-look passing plays from behind the net. Furthermore, they can also fool the entire rink and turn a shot attempt into a dangerous cross-slot pass. Kucherov and Guentzel are tied for first on the team with five high-danger passes (passes to the slot plus cross-slot passes plus goal-line passes).
Possession Drivers
On the other hand, some players will play a less-risky style and control the perimeter of the offensive zone, relying on their defensemen activating at the blue line for shot attempts from range. These players typically have solid possession metrics like Corsi for percentage (CF%). More times than not, bottom six forwards will play this low-risk, perimeter game while the elite offensive talents exploit defenses through riskier passing plays. These possession drivers will utilize point passes and center lane feeds to generate scoring chances. Nick Paul, Anthony Cirelli, and Mitchell Chaffee are the Lightning’s perimeter, possession-driving passers in the offensive zone.
Tampa Bay Needs More Passing Plays Before Shots
While all this information is critical, it’s important to note that the sample size remains small. The final dataset will have roughly five times the games tracked already, and a larger sample size will allow us to make more accurate conclusions about players. Nevertheless, the Lightning need to generate more shot attempts directly off plays with multiple passes. This strategy will get the opposing defense and goaltender out of position. The Lightning face the powerhouse Winnipeg Jets on home ice Thursday night (Nov. 14) at Amalie Arena.
