For just the third time ever, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers are set to face off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All three have happened in the last four seasons. When both teams take the ice, we might be in for the most intense “Battle of Florida” to date.
There are two immediate storylines. The Lightning will look to prove they still have what it takes to win this series yet again. The Panthers will look to redeem themselves and show that their road to a Stanley Cup can go through Tampa. This matchup determined the Eastern Conference participant in the Stanley Cup Final both times, and the last four Eastern Conference participants in the Stanley Cup Final have been either the Lightning or the Panthers. This makes this series pivotal to keep an eye on.
In the regular season, the Panthers decisively took two of three games. The Lightning have won both playoff series, the first in six and then swept the second.
Lightning Fight To Keep Cup Window Open
The Lightning finished the regular season 45-29-8 with 98 points. They come into the playoffs as the first wild-card seed in the Eastern Conference – the lowest seed they have been in over a decade. In the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs, they were the fifth seed.
The Lightning managed to claw their way into the playoffs despite very little consistency during the season. They have four calendar months with a winning record, two with a losing record and one ‘hockey .500’ month. If you feel the need to count their 4-4-1 April as a losing record because of the overtime loss, go for it, but it technically isn’t.
The impression you get from this team entirely depends on the date you tune in. In March, when they went 9-1-1, no one would’ve wanted to play them in the playoffs. Play them a month earlier – when they posted 5-6-1 record and gave up nine goals against the team they are about to play – you would’ve said they were heading to the couch for the playoffs. We’ll see which version we get in the first round.
Key Players to Watch
Nikita Kucherov (44 goals, 100 assists, 144 points) is the obvious standout. He finished with 54 more points than the second-best performer on the team (Brayden Point with 90). He is a lock for the Art Ross Trophy, and became the fifth player ever to record 100 assists in a season. He had more three-point games (23) than zero-point games (13). As for the playoffs, he comes in with 160-career playoff points in 142 games. He shows up nearly every game in nearly every situation. He has 18 points in 10 career playoff games against the Panthers.
Brayden Point followed up his 51-goal season with 46 goals this season. He had moments where his production was below his standards but has been stellar since the beginning of the new year with 51 points in his final 43 games, including 29 goals. He’s also been one of the more clutch performers on the Lightning this season with a league-leading 12 game-winning goals. Point has averaged exactly one point per game against the Panthers throughout his career with 32 points in 32 regular-season games. He had six points in six games during the 2021 First Round matchup (he sat out the rematch in 2022 with an injury).
Andrei Vasilevskiy’s season embodies the team’s. As a whole, Vasilevskiy went 30-20-2 with a .900 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.90 goals against average (GAA). The last two are career lows. But the season total doesn’t tell the whole story. From Jan. 9 to Feb. 15, he had a 12-game stretch with a .915 save percentage. He followed that up with eight games with a .854 save percentage. He has 11 games where he’s allowed one goal or fewer. He’s had six games where he’s allowed five or more. In April, he was league average with a .899 save percentage. Sluggish defensive moments in front of him can certainly be pointed to but everyone can agree he had a streaky season (which he missed the first six weeks of after surgery.)
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The Panthers might see this as the prime time to get past him. However, they have to prove it. The 2021 Conn Smythe winner has been nothing but a thorn in their playoff sides. In 10 playoff games against the Panthers, Vasilevskiy is 8-2 with a 1.89 GAA and a .950 SV%. He’s even shut them out to finish off both series.
Anthony Duclair is up against his former team. He got to be part of the journey last season, and now his mission is to cut his former teammates’ journeys short. He’s never played a playoff game against the team he spent three seasons with. Before his time in Sunrise, he had nine points in 12 regular season games against Florida. In 17 games with the Lightning, Duclair has 15 points, including eight goals and seven assists.
Panthers Look to Add New Path to Stanley Cup Final
The Panthers have yet to find a path that runs through Channelside Drive. Perhaps the third time’s the charm.
The defending Eastern Conference champs (52-24-6, 110 points) come in with the second division title in three seasons, clinching it on the last night of their regular season. They had virtually zero worries about having a chance to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final. They have stayed in the Atlantic Division’s top three since Nov. 12 and have been second place or better since Dec. 27. They had zero losing months, with their worst month being a 7-6-1 March where they went 2-5-0 at home.
In the regular season, the Panthers dominated the Lightning, even in the game they lost. The first game was a 3-2 win, where they led 2-0 for the first 40 minutes. Then they won 9-2. In their loss, they outshot the Lightning 50 to 16 – Vasilevskiy put on his best impression of a brick wall.
If this series goes the way it did in the regular season, they come in at the wheel.
Key Players
Sam Reinhart is the team MVP with a team-leading 57 goals and 94 points. In most seasons, he would’ve been in at least contention for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy – most goals in a season – but Auston Matthews’ 69 goals put that title out of reach. He had a strong performance against the Lightning this season with five points in three games, including four goals. In four playoff games, he has one goal and no assists. The Panthers will need Reinhart get keep dominating the Lightning defense if they want a shot. He cannot get shut down in yet another playoff series.
Matthew Tkachuk was the playoff hero just a season ago. In 20 playoff games, he had 11 goals and 13 assists for 24 points – a clear candidate for the Conn Smythe had the Panthers been able to win the Stanley Cup. He took a step back this season, by his standards, but still had a good campaign. His goal scoring dropped off (40 to 26), but he still had 62 assists and 88 points. Only two players on the Lightning did better. This is the first time Tkachuk will play the Lightning in the playoffs. He’s probably been waiting for this moment as he embraced the rivalry on arrival to Sunrise.
Aleksander Barkov, the lifelong Panther, looks to finally bring the Stanley Cup to the east coast of Florida. He had another strong season with 80 points in 73 games. He’s been relatively healthy this season, he’s played his most games since the 2018-19 season (82), and the Panthers certainly welcomed that. Barkov has played in all 10 “Battle of Florida” playoff games. In the 2021 series, he had seven points in six games but was held to a single point in the 2022 series.
Sergei Bobrovsky had his best season with the Panthers in 2023-24. His .915 SV% and 2.37 GAA are both his best since the 2017-18 season when he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Lightning are very familiar with Bobrovsky – for better and for worse. Bobrovsky was in net when the Blue Jackets swept the Lightning in 2019 posting a .932 SV%. Since then, the Lightning have done everything in their power to get payback. In the seven playoff appearances since, Bobrovsky has won a single game – that was a relief appearance for a struggling Chris Driedger. In starts, he’s winless. In his defense, when the Lightning swept the Panthers, Bobrovsky was not to blame. He had a .919 SV% in those four games. In three regular-season games, he had two fantastic appearances and one abysmal one. Like Vasilevskiy, we’ll see which version arrives for the playoffs.
Notes for Each Team
The Lightning had the best power-play unit, scoring 28.7% of the time they have the man advantage. The Panthers still possess the eighth-best power play in the league at 23.51%. Both penalty kills were on par with each other. The Lightning’s 83.1% is the fifth-best in the NHL, just ahead of the Panthers, whose is sixth at 82.5%.
This main difference comes from their defensive play when 5-on-5. Offensively, the Lightning are strong regardless of the situation. They scored more than the Panthers even when power-play goals were removed (220 vs 205). However, at even strength, the Lightning have been completely out of character defensively. Special teams have been their lifeblood to limit the damage of the opponent’s offensive attack.
According to Stathead, the league-average SV% for 5-on-5 is .920. The Panthers are well above average at .935, while the Lightning have been well below average at .909. For the Lightning, the blame is teamwide. Goaltending is having its worst season in many, but the defense, and its lack of depth for the bulk of the season, did them zero favors.
What is the Difference Maker in this Series?
This is going to be a very basic answer, but it’s true and Lightning fans and Panthers fans alike are more than likely to agree on this. The difference is Andrei Vasilevskiy.
You can count on the offense to get on the board. The defense might show up, but they haven’t yet against the Panthers this season. The Panthers have a stellar defense. They have allowed the second-fewest goals all season. Bobrovsky has proven to be solid against the Lightning in the playoffs more often than not. So has Vasilevskiy, but because of his rocky season, the focus goes to him.
There have been some tight games in the “Battle of Florida,” even when the Lightning were one of the league’s top defensive teams. The team with the goalie who makes that extra big save per game is the one moving on to the second round.
We should be in for a great series featuring a rivalry that has consistently grown in intensity. Buckle up. Have something ready to check your blood pressure if you root for one of these teams. It’s going to be a time.
Game 1 is on Sunday, April 21, at 12:30 p.m. at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL.
