We are three games into the second half of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2024-25 season and, really, we’ve already been offered a glimpse into the best and worst of what the team can offer. In Philadelphia last Tuesday, Joseph Woll backstopped the club to a 3-2 win as Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies all contributed. But then we saw a pair of disappointing efforts in Carolina and at home to the Vancouver Canucks, each resulting in three-goal defeats.
These three games serve to highlight the somewhat contradictory nature of the Maple Leafs’ current standing. On one hand, they currently hold the reins atop the Atlantic Division and boast one of the league’s best records to date. On the other hand, their play has demonstrated that there are imperfections to address (secondary offence and the power play, to name two) and remaining questions to answer.
As the chase for the Atlantic continues and the Maple Leafs navigate a busy second half (including a 4 Nations Face-Off break in February), let’s break down some storylines set to loom large between now and playoff time.
Is the Real Auston Matthews Back?
Much of Toronto’s first-half success came with their captain and superstar forward sidelined or clearly not at 100% as a result of a mysterious upper-body injury, so there’s no question that having a healthy, productive Matthews is a major key the rest of the way.
Thus far, the signs of a second-half renaissance for Matthews have been encouraging. The reigning 69-goal scorer already has three goals and eight points in five games post-injury absence after recording 11 goals and 23 points in a bumpy 24-game first half. That being said, his play over the past two losses – a minus-6 effort against the Hurricanes and a minus-1 against Vancouver – would suggest he may not have been quite ready to ramp up to 20-plus minute outings.
As you might expect from a star player, Matthews tends to make everything better around the Maple Leafs. He, Marner and Matthew Knies have found easy chemistry on a suddenly dangerous top line, while the club should benefit at both ends of the rink from the presence of their best two-way player (on most nights, anyway). That being said, concern over a lingering injury that has lasted since training camp and even required a treatment trip to Germany isn’t going to go away immediately.
The Other Injury Returns
If the news on Matthews’ return is mostly positive for the time being, then the focus can shift towards other key players who currently find themselves sidelined with injuries.
Anthony Stolarz‘s exceptional start to the 2024-25 season (9-5-2-1 record, .927 save percentage, 2.15 goals-against average) was brought to a halt when the goaltender required knee surgery back in mid-December. Based on the return timeline of four to six weeks that was reported at the time, the 30-year-old could be poised to be back in the lineup by late January or early February. In his absence, Woll has risen to the occasion as the clear No. 1 but bears a checkered injury history of his own and is already just three starts shy of his career-high total of 23 from last season.
For as important as the return of Stolarz is to the Maple Leafs, getting top-four blueliner Jake McCabe back on the ice isn’t far behind. He was placed on the injured reserve (IR) with an upper-body injury after a scary play against the Philadelphia Flyers last Sunday in which his head bounced hard against the ice during a fight with Garnet Hathaway and he subsequently struggled to regain his balance. The good news, per TSN Insider Darren Dreger, is that he is progressing well and might be ready to return by next week.
Unless you still count Matthews among the Maple Leafs who are still on the mend, Stolarz and McCabe are clearly the two biggest impact players awaiting return. And yet, Toronto could still be in position to further shore up their depth once Jani Hakanpaa returns after re-injuring his knee and once the seemingly-forgotten Calle Jarnkrok (groin and sports hernia surgery) can get back on the ice.
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Who Is the Third Line Centre?
The return of Matthews has made a major impact on the club’s forward corps, from solidifying the top-six to creating a dangerous No. 1 line to re-establishing the one-two punch down the middle alongside Tavares. Yet, even with as close to a healthy forward corps as we’ve seen in quite some time, there remains uncertainty over the third-line centre position.
Currently, Max Domi is doing his best to fill the role. The club would, however, probably prefer to see him occupy his more natural slot on the wing. Plus, ideally, you’d get more than three goals and 15 points out of the position. With a shortage of logical internal options available (Pontus Holmberg?), a trade seems to make the most sense.
Assuming you’ve been taking in some of our Maple Leafs coverage of late, you’ve undoubtedly seen some possible trade candidates to fill the third-line centre vacancy. Scott Laughton, Brock Nelson, Yanni Gourde, Mikael Granlund and even Ryan O’Reilly could all make sense for Toronto ahead of the March 7 NHL Trade Deadline.
Could the Maple Leafs Be Active at the Deadline?
Speaking of the trade deadline, the Maple Leafs’ current standing, coupled with some underlying weaknesses inherent in a team with Stanley Cup ambitions, could point to an active lead-up to March 7. Toronto is always a team to watch around deadline time, but this season – given the mounting pressure on the ‘Core Four’ and the pending free agency of Marner and Tavares – could be the time to go all-in.
In terms of trade targets, that obviously means addressing the aforementioned third-line centre spot, but it could portend to even more moves. Offensive production outside of the top-six forwards has been difficult to come by, save for Bobby McMann, so depth additions could be on the way. Giving Joel Farabee a change of scenery or bringing in Brandon Tanev to join brother Chris could make a lot of sense. And depending on how Stolarz handles a return to the lineup, perhaps even goaltending help could be in the cards.
Of course, to get something you have to give something. In terms of trade assets, the current Maple Leafs could potentially part ways with Nicholas Robertson, Pontus Holmberg or Conor Timmins, none of whom seem to have a secure role amongst the current core. On the farm, there are also skilled prospects like Topi Niemela and Roni Hirvonen, although it would take a pretty serious return for Fraser Minten or Easton Cowan to be put on the table. On the draft front, Toronto dealt their 2025 first-round pick away in the McCabe trade, but they do have all of their firsts beyond that.
There is still a lot of hockey to play and plenty of stories to unpack between now and when the regular season comes to a close on April 17. The progress of Matthews, the returns of fellow Maple Leafs from injury, the trade deadline and the battle atop the Atlantic Division will surely shape how the club looks by that point. While some cynical fans may be in “wake me when the playoffs start” regarding Toronto’s level of success, the team continues to change and evolve and the second half of the 2024-25 season is critical in that development.
