More than one insider has suggested the Toronto Maple Leafs might take a big swing this season and look to acquire Timo Meier from the San Jose Sharks. Outside of trying to make the salary cap work, the cost of the acquisition would be tremendous and a decision would need to be made if going all-in would be worth doing if Meier is merely a rental.
The popular forward is a pending RFA, so his addition doesn’t have to technically be for just a limited window of time. That said, following this season, the Leafs as constructed likely can’t afford to keep the roster together and re-sign Meier to a new extension. In a salary cap world with some major bucks going to the top-end stars on this team, Toronto simply can’t have their cake and eat it too. There are two questions worth asking if Meier is legitimately on the Leafs’ radar: First, is it worth it? Second, who would have to go after Toronto makes this season’s run?
Why the Maple Leafs Might Like Meier So Much
Meier is the flashy name available at this year’s trade deadline. He’s also arguably the best forward on the trade market. The Leafs are said to be looking to add a forward and while some lesser-known names would work, Meier is the unicorn of the bunch and he fits the team’s needs perfectly.
One NHL executive told The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun:
If they could acquire a top-six forward, it would really help to balance out those third and fourth lines. This isn’t a knock on how those lines have performed this season, but in the playoffs, it’s heavier hockey and a game of attrition. I don’t think Toronto’s forward group has enough depth to go four rounds. If it swings for the fences and adds Timo Meier, it would give itself the best opportunity to win.
source – ‘LeBrun: Rival NHL execs on what the Maple Leafs need at the trade deadline’ – Pierre LeBrun – The Athletic – 02/13/2023
There’s no one else on the market like Meier and frankly, there’s not really anyone on the Leafs like him either. If Meier sticks around, he quickly becomes part of the team’s core group of players and that’s a nice piece to have as part of your core.
The Problem With Adding Meier
Despite all of the lovely thoughts that come with manifesting Meier onto this’ roster, there are inevitable consequences. LeBrun asked, “…how would Meier’s cap hit work with a top-heavy forward group already paying [Auston] Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares double-digit salaries, plus William Nylander at $6.9 million?” He adds, “And Nylander and Matthews are eligible to sign extensions this summer.”
The answer appears to be that it doesn’t.
The reality is that the Leafs can’t keep their offensively-dangerous lineup as constructed and extend Meier. He’d be nothing more than a rental if the Leafs didn’t want to break up their existing core. Considering the cost that could be associated with trading for him and outbidding a team like the New Jersey Devils or Carolina Hurricanes, trading for him and then not being able to sign him might not be the best asset management. Alternatively, landing him all while knowing that your lineup will need a major reshuffle after the season poses potential problems.
Who Would Have to Go For the Maple Leafs To Fit Meier’s Extension In?
LeBrun notes that the thinking might be to give the Leafs insurance in case the Matthews and Nylander extension talks prove thorny. The suggestion here would be that Toronto believes there’s a chance one of these two players could leave. If so, Dubas wants to have an ace up his sleeve. That ace would be Meier.
Jonas Siegel of The Athletic takes the conversation further and argues there’s a way to keep everyone, but he does acknowledge that if one of the core four weren’t moved, another major name would have to go.
He writes:
Sign Meier (for argument’s sake, let’s say an eight-year deal with an $8.5 million cap hit) and the Leafs wouldn’t be able to keep Michael Bunting and might have space to hold onto only one of Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov. (Samsonov is a pending RFA this summer.)
source – ‘Timo Meier to the Maple Leafs? Complicated but workable: Monday Morning Leafs Report’ – Jonas Siegel – The Athletic – 02/13/2023
Without Meier in the equation, Bunting could be a key piece to the Leafs’ future, especially if a bigger name ends up leaving in free agency. That’s a big sacrifice to make off the hop. You either lose one of your core four, or you live with knowing that the best you can do is to trade Bunting’s rights at the NHL Draft.
Like LeBrun, Siegel believes there is a scenario where Nylander becomes the cap casualty in all of this. He notes, “Maybe they decide to pay Meier rather than extend Nylander. In that case, maybe they trade Nylander with a year left on his contract, recouping their assets that way.” So too, at this point, there’s no guarantee the Leafs can keep Bunting. Unfortunately, they could lose both players.
