Earlier last week, we looked at unrestricted free agents due for big paydays that teams should avoid. Today, we’ll do the opposite. Let’s look at some UFAs who’ll likely earn modest cap hits and will be good value or bargain signings for teams who are tight on cap space and need to restrict their spending.
Jason Zucker
Jason Zucker signed a one-year deal with the Arizona Coyotes last summer worth $5.1 million. The hope was to have a productive season and cash in with a rising cap this summer. Unfortunately, he wasn’t as productive with the Coyotes as with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2022-23.
Zucker finished this season with 14 goals and 32 points in 69 games — a 38-point pace over 82 games. However, his chance creation did improve after he went to a better team at the trade deadline in the Nashville Predators. In 18 games with the Preds, Zucker generated 12.24 shots per 60 minutes and 6.26 high-danger chances per 60, numbers closer to his rates with the Penguins in 2022-23.
Related: 7 Free Agents for NHL Teams to Avoid This Offseason
Evolving Hockey has Zucker signing for three years at a cap hit of $3.186 million, while AFP Analytics has him earning a two-year deal at a cap hit of $3.711 million. If his production with the Predators (23-goal pace over 82 games) is any indication, he still has something to offer. He could be a solid addition to a team looking for a middle-six scoring upgrade at a reasonable price.
Daniel Sprong
If it feels Daniel Sprong has been a great value signing for the last few offseasons, it’s because he has. He had another productive season, totaling 18 goals and 43 points in 76 games on a mediocre Detroit Red Wings team. And he did so while playing limited minutes again, as he averaged just 12 minutes of ice time per game.
Sprong went about business as usual despite moving to the Red Wings from the Seattle Kraken for this season. He was again one of the more efficient five-on-five scorers in the league, averaging 2.36 points per 60 minutes. Only Jonatan Berggren was a more efficient scorer for the Red Wings, and he played in just 12 games.
Despite the production, it doesn’t look like a big-time payday is in store for Sprong. Evolving Hockey has him projected for a three-year deal for $3.336 million, while AFP Analytics has him signing for three years and a cap hit of $4.092 million. That latter number seems a bit high, but any cap hit with a number that starts below four is great value for Sprong. He may be what he is, but he makes the most of his minutes and can provide middle-six production in less than middle-six minutes.
Mike Reilly
Mike Reilly’s NHL career once looked to be over, but the New York Islanders gave him new life after claiming him on waivers earlier this season. He took the opportunity and ran with it, becoming one of the better depth defenders around the league, finishing with six goals and 24 points in 61 games — a 32-point pace over 82 games.
Not only did Reilly put up some points from the back end, but his two-way impacts at five-on-five were excellent. He finished with an expected goal share (xG%) of 55.14 percent, and ranked second among New York Islanders skaters to Anders Lee. A look at Reilly’s RAPM chart from this season shows he’s still very much an NHLer:
Evolving Hockey has Reilly projected for a one-year deal at a cap hit of $1.16 million, while AFP Analytics has him signing for three years at a cap hit of $3.172 million. The one-year contract at that price is a no-brainer, but even three years at just above $3 million annually is excellent value for what Reilly offers. He should be at or near the top of your UFA wishlist if you need a puck-moving third-pair defender who excels two ways.
James van Riemsdyk
James van Riemsdyk isn’t the player he used to be, but he still looks like a solid middle-six option. He finished this past season with 11 goals and 38 points in 71 games — a 44-point pace over 82 games. He was on one of the best-value contracts in the NHL this season (one year and $1 million), and it seems he could earn a similar deal as a UFA this summer.
Evolving Hockey has van Riemsdyk projected for a one-year deal at $1.555 million, while AFP Analytics has him signing for one year at $1.214 million. For that price, he also seems like a no-brainer. His impacts were quite good this season, and he shot 7.7 percent, well below his career average of 11.8 percent. That means he could be due for better scoring luck next season, making him an ideal low-risk, high-reward signing.
Viktor Arvidsson
What kind of contract Viktor Arvidsson gets this offseason will be worth watching. He played in only 18 games this season due to injuries but was productive, totaling 15 points — a 68-point pace over 82 games. He fired 59 shots on goal, which would have put him on pace to finish with well above 200 in 82 games.
Arvidsson was also the Los Angeles Kings’ second-most efficient five-on-five scorer this season behind Trevor Moore. Despite the injuries, there’s plenty to suggest he still has some gas left in the tank and that he could be a great value signing for a team that needs a top-six winger.
Evolving Hockey has Arvidsson projected for a one-year deal at $3.055 million, while AFP Analytics has him signing for three years and a cap hit of $4.764 million. The one-year contract is an easy yes, but even three years at AFP’s price would be great value if his health checks out. A potential 60-plus-point scorer at a cap hit of less than $5 million should mean he has plenty of suitors this summer.
Jordan Martinook
The Carolina Hurricanes will likely have a much different look this coming season, with many of their players being pending UFAs and RFAs this offseason. One of them is Jordan Martinook, one of the best bottom-six forwards in the NHL.
Martinook finished this season with 14 goals and 32 points in 82 games and had some of the best defensive impacts in the league for a winger. He’s also durable, as he’s played in all 82 games in each of the last two seasons. Because there seems to be high demand for players like him, he could get a payday if he hits free agency.
For now, we’ll categorize Martinook as a great value find in free agency because of his affordable contract projections. Evolving Hockey has him signing a three-year deal at a cap hit of $2.644 million, while AFP has him at three years and $2.774 million. He might be one of the most sought-after UFAs in free agency this offseason for that price.
Teddy Blueger
Teddy Blueger has quietly been one of the better fourth-line centers in the NHL since he broke into the league with the Pittsburgh Penguins. He had one of the best seasons of his career with the Vancouver Canucks in 2023-24, totaling six goals and 28 points in 68 games — a 34-point pace over 82 games.
Not only can Blueger chip in a bit offensively, but he has excellent defensive impacts, wins well over 50 percent of his faceoffs, kills penalties and provides a bit of physicality (he totaled 98 hits this season). He should also come at a pretty affordable price.
AFP has Blueger signing for two years at a cap hit of $2.176 million, while Evolving Hockey has him earning a two-year deal at a cap hit of $1.808 million. For what he brings to the table as a fourth-line center, you can’t get much better value than that, so expect him to have plenty of suitors on July 1 if he doesn’t re-up with the Canucks.
William Carrier
William Carrier is in a pretty similar boat to Martinook. There’s likely to be quite the market for him, so you can’t rule out an overpay. But for now, let’s include him in the value buys because he has some pretty affordable contract projections from AFP and Evolving Hockey, just like Martinook.
Carrier only played in 39 games this season, totaling six goals and eight points. But he’s long been one of the best fourth-line wingers in the NHL, both production and impact-wise. He’s averaged 16 goals and 27 points per 82 games over the last three seasons, and he’s had strong two-way impacts at even strength:
They say availability is the best ability, which has been a concern for Carrier. But for what he projects to land as a UFA, he’s certainly worth gambling on. Evolving Hockey has him signing a one-year deal for $1.265 million, while AFP has him earning a two-year contract at a cap hit of $2.488 million. I tend to think he’ll sign for something closer to AFP’s projection, but even then, he’s still worth that price.
David Perron
David Perron did show his age a bit this past season, but the 36-year-old veteran still has some gas left in the tank. He finished with 17 goals and 47 points in 76 games this season and could be a good value find for a team looking for a middle-six scoring upgrade.
Evolving Hockey has Perron signing a one-year deal worth $2.412 million, while AFP has him inking a two-year contract at a cap hit of $2.948 million. If he can continue producing 45-55 points for the next two years, signing him for less than $3 million annually would be solid value.
Plus, Perron has plenty of playoff experience, having won the Stanley Cup with the St. Louis Blues in 2019 and making it with the Vegas Golden Knights during their inaugural season in 2017. He’s also been on plenty of rebuilding teams, so he’s seen everything. He seems like he’d be a fit for just about any club and for a very fair price.
Dmitry Kulikov
Perhaps the Stanley Cup payday is coming for Dmitry Kulikov, but even then, he should be a solid value signing for someone looking for a reliable two-way third-pair defender. Kulikov doesn’t put up many points, but he’s mobile, can move the puck, and has solid defensive impacts at even strength.
AFP has Kulikov signing for two years and a cap hit of $2.896 million, while Evolving Hockey has him earning a two-year contract at a cap hit of $2.787 million. Those are nearly identical projections, so it’s a good bet he signs for somewhere close to that. He’s the ideal third-pair defender for that price, and if the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, you know teams will be lining up to sign him on July 1 if he hits the open market.
Free Agency Should Be About Finding Value
Teams will always pay the best of the best in free agency. But what it should really be about is finding value and avoiding handing out contracts that will saddle a team down in future years. These UFAs are among those where teams can find value this summer.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
