Reactions were mixed this summer when the Edmonton Oilers decided not to match the offer sheets that defenceman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway signed with the St. Louis Blues.
Now, only 10 weeks later, many Oilers fans may find themselves wishing Edmonton general manager Stan Bowman had a do-over, as Broberg and Holloway are off to a strong start in St. Louis.
Through 10 games, Broberg has two goals and six assists for eight points, second most on the Blues, and his plus/minus rating of plus-5 leads the team. Holloway is tied for the St. Louis lead with four goals, including a team-high two on the power play, and ranks second on the Blues with 25 hits.
Meanwhile, the pair’s former team has stumbled out of the gate this fall. After getting smoked 6-1 by the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena on Monday (Oct. 28), the Oilers have a record of 4-5-1. Edmonton currently sits second from last place in the Pacific Division, and its goal differential of minus-13 is the third worst in the entire NHL.
Watching the Oilers struggle in the early going, one can’t help but think about how good Holloway and Broberg would look in an Oilers uniform right now. Edmonton has yet to fill the roles that the two players were expected to play this season, particularly in the case of Broberg.
Broberg Was Oilers’ First Round Pick in 2019
Broberg was part of an offseason exodus from the Oilers blue line, which also saw Cody Ceci traded to the San Jose Sharks and Vincent Desharnais sign as a free-agent with the Vancouver Canucks.
Desharnais had become expendable after being supplanted by Broberg on Edmonton’s third pairing during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and while Ceci was more valuable in Edmonton than he was ever given credit for, the Oilers wanted to clear out his cap hit of $3.25 million in 2024-25. Of the three blueliners, Broberg was the one Edmonton didn’t want to lose.
Since Edmonton drafted him eighth overall in 2019, Broberg projected to be a big part of the team’s future. After a couple years bouncing between the Oilers and their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, he finally came into his own during the 2024 postseason, when he had two goals and an assist in 10 games.
With the Oilers trailing the Dallas Stars 2-1 in the Western Conference Final, Broberg was inserted into the lineup, and Edmonton proceeded to win the next three games to punch its ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. Broberg played an increasingly greater role over seven games in the championship round against the Florida Panthers, first starting on Edmonton’s third pairing alongside Brett Kulak, then moving up to the No. 2 pair with Darnell Nurse. Broberg’s rating of plus-7 in the final series was the best among all skaters on both teams.
Holloway Was Oilers’ First Round Pick in 2020
This summer also saw the departure of three forwards who were regulars in Edmonton’s lineup during its playoff run: winger Warren Foegele, centre Ryan McLeod, and Holloway.
The Oilers let Foegele walk in free agency – he signed a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Kings – and dealt McLeod to the Buffalo Sabres. But their intention was to keep Holloway.
Much as in the case of Broberg, there were big expectations of Holloway from the moment he was drafted 14th overall in 2020. The forward spent significant time with the Oilers each of the last two seasons, broken up by stints in Bakersfield, and he too, emerged during the 2024 postseason.
Holloway played all 25 games for the Oilers during their playoff run, scoring five goals and adding two assists. He led the team with 86 hits in the playoffs, including 30 during the Stanley Cup Final. Three years after the former University of Wisconsin star turned pro, he was showing true signs of unlocking his potential.
Broberg and Holloway Were Big Parts of Oilers’ Future
Both Broberg and Holloway figured largely into Edmonton’s plans for 2024-25. But on Aug. 13, the Blues threw a monkey wrench into things when they signed both restricted free agents to offer sheets: Broberg’s offer was for two years at $4,580,917 annually, while Holloway’s was two years at $2,290,457 annually.
While the Oilers always knew they were going to have to sign Broberg and Holloway each to a new contract in the 2024 offseason, they definitely weren’t budgeting anywhere close to what was offered by the Blues, especially more than $9 million over two years for Broberg.
Bowman’s decision not to match the contracts was questioned by fans, but also understood. The Oilers didn’t have a lot of cap room to work with, and the value of Broberg and Holloway was still primarily based on perceived potential. Potential that they may or may not realize. Or, as it now turns out, exceed.
Oilers Haven’t Filled Departed Players’ Void
Thus far, efforts to replace Broberg and Holloway have proven unsuccessful for the Oilers, who have scored the second-fewest goals in the NHL, while allowing the second-most in the Pacific Division. The Oilers have been a disaster on special teams, with a penalty kill rate of 62.1% (worst in the league) and power play rate of 13.8% (tied for second worst in the NHL’s Western Conference).
With the addition of Travis Dermott (signed as a free agent) and Ty Emberson (acquired in the Ceci trade), along with second-year Oiler Troy Stecher taking on a regular role, Edmonton’s defence is not nearly as good as it was at the end of the 2023-24 regular season and throughout the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The three defencemen who weren’t in Edmonton’s top seven last season, Dermott, Emberson and Stecher, all have negative plus/minus ratings, and haven’t registered a single point between the three of them.
The three forwards that are new additions to Edmonton’s lineup, Viktor Arvidsson (signed as a free agent), Jeff Skinner (signed as a free agent) and Vasily Podkolzin (acquired in a trade with the Canucks), have so far combined for two goals, which is half of what Holloway has scored all by himself.
Compensation Could Prove Valuable for Oilers
As compensation for losing Broberg and Holloway, Edmonton was given the Blues’ second and third-round selections in the 2025 NHL Draft. They also acquired the rights to defenceman Paul Fischer along with the Blues’ third-round selection in the 2028 NHL Draft in exchange for future considerations, a deal that essentially amounted to St. Louis sweetening the pot for Edmonton to not match the offer sheets.
Related: 6 Reasons Oilers Fans Should Be Excited About New Prospect Paul Fischer
That’s not a bad haul, but also not a fair return based on what St. Louis is seeing from Broberg and Holloway so far this season. Picks and a long-term prospect also don’t help an Oilers team in win-now mode, although they are assets that could prove valuable trade chips in acquiring immediate help.
With his current stats, Holloway would be second on the Oilers in goals, tied for first in power-play goals, fifth in points, and second in hits. Broberg, meanwhile, would lead Edmonton in plus/minus, as well as tying for fourth in goals, second in assists, and third in points.
Fans would be well advised to take a deep breath and a step back. The NHL season is all of three weeks old, and to pass judgment based on this short sample size would be a textbook overreaction. That said, Bowman’s decision to not match the offer sheets looks bad right now, and if trends continue in both Edmonton and St. Louis, it will look even worse later this season and beyond.
