First the good news – it’s almost Christmas and at time of writing, the Ottawa Senators hold one of the Eastern Conference’s wild card playoff spots. The bad news you ask? To hold onto it, the Bytown squad must pump up the scoring of their bottom-six.
Once the yuletide passes the level of competition in the NHL takes a big step up exposing the soft underbelly of pretenders to a playoff spot. Weak spots in their lineup emerge for all to see and those clubs that can’t address them often fall quickly out of playoff contention.
Related: Senators’ Adam Gaudette is a Rare Bright Spot This Season
So just how much of a problem is the Senators’ bottom-six scoring? Let’s have a look.
The Ottawa Senators’ Bottom Six by the Numbers
The make-up of the Senators’ bottom-six has evolved since the start of the season, but as of writing, head coach Travis Green has settled on these lines:
| Third Line | Goals | Assists |
| Nick Cousins | 3 | 5 |
| Shane Pinto | 4 | 2 |
| Michael Amadio | 2 | 7 |
| Fourth Line | ||
| Noah Gregor | 4 | 2 |
| Zach Ostapchuk | 0 | 3 |
| Ridly Greig | 2 | 6 |
With 15 goals to their credit, the Senators’ third and fourth lines account for about 16% of the Senators’ goals and total points so far this season and 18% of the assists the team has racked up. That’s middling by NHL standards and here’s how it compares to Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference rivals with whom the Senators are vying for a playoff spot:
| Team | Bottom-Six Share of Total Team Points |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 12% |
| Florida Panthers | 16% |
| Boston Bruins | 24% |
| Wild Card Contenders | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 14% |
| Ottawa Senators | 16% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 25% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 18% |
At first blush, there’s nothing in this table that’s too alarming. On average, the bottom-six of each of the Senators’ rivals for a playoff berth have scored 18% of their respective teams’ total points so far this season. While the Senators’ bottom-six points production as a percentage of total team points doesn’t match that of the Bruins’ bottom-six (25%), it’s hardly as bad as the points put up by the bottom-six of the Maple Leafs (12%).
Still, teams that succeed in the NHL have a more equal distribution of points production across their four lines. The league-leading Winnipeg Jets have bottom-six scoring that accounts for almost a quarter of their points. Hot on their heels in the NHL standings are the Vegas Golden Knights whose bottom-six have put up 26% of the teams’ total points this season.
Can the Senators Improve Their Bottom-Six Scoring?
Ranked 15th in the league for goals scored so far this season, the Senators are not exactly a goal-scoring powerhouse. They’ve overcome their so-so goal scoring by allowing the 8th fewest goals in the league with an average goals-against per game of just 2.77. That’s better than the Bolts, Penguins, Flyers, Panthers, and Bruins – all teams vying with the Senators for a playoff spot at this point.
While keeping the puck out of the net is important, winning teams must be able to score and the Senators on that count are perfectly middling. With most of their top-six players heading for record years in the points department, it’s not as if Green can expect much more from them. The only place to look for more scoring is in his bottom-six.
With just four goals and two assists in 23 games this season, Pinto has underwhelmed. He’s far from being the young gun president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios expected him to be when he signed him to a two-year contract with an average annual value of $3.75 million last summer.
Much has been written to explain Pinto’s disappointing season. Perhaps the best explanation is that the young centreman hasn’t seen much action on the powerplay, relegated as he has been to the second power play unit. There he’s yet to mark up the scoresheet for a single point.
Still, Green is in a tough spot in that opportunities to play on the power play are earned not given out like candy. Even so, fans are left to wonder whether Pinto could reclaim at least some of his mojo if he saw more power play action.
Greig is the other young gun who has disappointed so far this season. He looks uncomfortable playing at the fourth-line wing. It’s doubtful that with Ostapchuk centering his line he will see much action on the red dot, so he’ll just have to learn how to make the wing his home.
While there’s always hope, it’s doubtful that veterans Cousins, Amadio or Gregor will provide additional scoring punch to the bottom-six. None of them were hired for their goal-scoring ability, yet all are on track this season to meet their career average points production in the 20 – 25 point per season range.
All things considered, it’s doubtful that the Senators will get much more scoring punch from their bottom-six.
A Trade Could Be Senators Best Bet to Improve Bottom-Six
That is, unless a trade brings that punch to town. With the Senators for the first time in years looking like they could be headed for the playoffs next spring, expect Staios to make moves to bolster his scoring punch through an acquisition or two. It’s a long tradition among playoff-bound teams.
