Despite back-to-back losses to the Montreal Canadiens and San Jose Sharks, the Tampa Bay Lightning have plenty of games in hand to climb to the top of the Atlantic Division. Tampa Bay leads the division in goal differential at plus-36 and has been a juggernaut offensively all season long. Furthermore, the Lightning have improved at suppressing goals with bounce-back play from Andrei Vasilevskiy and upgrades to their defense core over the summer. Who’s been the root cause of these defensive improvements? Here are the Lightning’s five best defensive players in 2024-25 at the turn of the calendar year.
A vital consideration when throwing together lists like this is the context surrounding the stats. For defensive metrics, the quality of competition is critical when viewing advanced metrics like expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60). We will use data sources like PuckIQ, Natural Stat Trick, and my microstats workbook for the Lightning to form the most accurate top five possible.
5. J.J. Moser
One of the new Lightning members this season, J.J. Moser, has become the perfect defense partner for Victor Hedman on the top pairing. Moser is historically known for his ability to defend the rush while being a solid option on offense. Furthermore, he has been a crucial asset for Hedman’s bounce-back play this season.
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Moser has played 170 minutes and 38.4% of his ice time against “elite” competition via PuckIQ, as defined on their website. His defensive rate of 55.1 Corsi against per 60 (CA/60) against the competition level ranks third on the Lightning with over 100 minutes played in that department.
His ability to defend the rush in my microstats dataset for the Lightning is impressive. Moser leads all Lightning defensemen with a 35.85% denial percentage on carry-ins against. Moreover, he’s posted solid defensive metrics with 2.28 xGA/60 via Natural Stat Trick.
4. Victor Hedman
Named the Lightning’s new captain in September, Hedman has been excellent at both ends of the ice this season. Following an underwhelming five-on-five performance in 2023-24, he continues to dominate play this season. While he always had the offensive ability, his defensive metrics have been the highlight 35 games into the season.
Hedman plays a solid chunk of his minutes against some of the best players in the NHL. Their quality of competition analysis shows he plays 35% of his minutes against “elite” competition. Throughout 191 minutes, he’s allowed just three goals while the Lightning have scored 11.
Furthermore, Hedman ranks fourth on the Lightning in xGA/60. His 2.12 xGA/60 ranks in the top 20 amongst defenders with over 350 minutes this season. Lastly, he ranks first on the Lightning defense core in high-danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60) and fourth in the entire NHL amongst defensemen.
3. Brandon Hagel
The 25-year-old forward continues to live up to the eight-year extension he earned this summer with an annual average of just $6.5 million per season. This contract already looks like one of the best in the entire NHL. Hagel is a force at both ends of the ice against the best of the best.
With a whopping team lead of 42.6% of his minutes against “elite” competition, his 55.3 CA/60 versus the difficult competition level ranks fourth on Tampa Bay. Plus, his 2.16 xGA/60 ranks sixth on the Lightning and 51st in the entire NHL. Considering his challenging role, mostly bottom-six forwards with easier matchups rank in front of him. Meanwhile, Hagel can post these defensive numbers while a top-20 forward in points this season.
However, his impact is also known on special teams with the penalty kill, not just through blocking shots and not allowing goals. He has a goal share (GF%) of 50% shorthanded, meaning he’s scoring at the same rate as his opponents when down a man. This rate is nearly unheard of for this situation, which puts Hagel third on the list.
2. Ryan McDonagh
When Lightning fans got the news that the team was re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh, they knew they were in for a treat. Not only has he helped revive the Lightning defensively, but he’s also been the main catalyst in helping his old defense partner regain his form in Erik Cernak, who would be an honorable mention on this list.
While all the defensive rates against aren’t as impressive for McDonagh similar to other players on this list, he leads the Lightning with 247 minutes against elite competition, along with that role being 42% of his time on ice. When considering the context of his grueling minutes and his microstats defending the rush, McDonagh deserves this ranking.
He ranks first in zone entry denial percentage and second in zone entry denial percentage on carry-ins at 34.15% in the microstats workbook. If McDonagh got tasked with minutes against the opponent’s second-line forwards, he would be at the top of the NHL in defensive metrics like xGA/60 and HDCA/60.
1. Anthony Cirelli
While Anthony Cirelli continues to make leaps and bounds offensively this season, one can’t forget his elite defensive presence. His elite two-way game was a critical factor in the Lightning’s back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and 2021. With an uptick in his offensive performance, he has shown no signs of regression in his defensive play.
With 40.5% of his minutes against elite competition, Cirelli ranks first on the Lightning in CA/60 versus the best players in the NHL. He ranks third on the team with just 2.06 xGA/60. Moreover, he ranks first by allowing only 7.77 HDCA/60. Amongst a league-wide sample, he ranks tied for 29th and eighth in those last two statistics.
Similar to Hagel, the center is doing the unthinkable shorthanded, scoring at the same rate as the power play on the ice against him. Cirelli checks all the boxes defensively while playing a complete offensive game and even impacting special teams for the Lightning.
Closing Thoughts
The Lightning have improved greatly on the defensive side of the puck this season thanks to the five names listed above. They continue their California road trip on Saturday, Jan. 4 against the Los Angeles Kings at 9 p.m. Eastern time. Tampa Bay will look to snap a two-game losing streak against the powerhouse Kings.
