A lot can apparently happen in a span of a few days. More to the point, a lot has changed for the Montreal Canadiens since they returned from the holidays. To recap, heading into the break, they had just won three games in a row for the first time all season, which probably had at least a little something to do with their position at the bottom of the standings.
It was a noteworthy achievement, but it was also asterisked. They beat the struggling Buffalo Sabres once and the disappointing Detroit Red Wings twice, before losing a game in which they brought forth a less-than-stellar effort against the mediocre Columbus Blue Jackets on the road. All was essentially as it should be, before they got rested up and rattled up victories against three of the stronger teams in the league, the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights, all also on the road no less.
As a result, the Canadiens, who not too long ago had been the worst team in the Eastern Conference, are three points back of the Ottawa Senators for the last wild-card spot. While that still represents a hill to climb, especially due to the fact the Sens hold a game in hand, it’s clear the Habs have jumped into the proverbial mix after a fortuitous 9-5 December. Granted, with exception to those last three wins, the Canadiens didn’t exactly beat what anyone would call the league’s elite, but to make the playoffs you need to win. And they did. Can they keep it up and actually make the playoffs? Here’s what needs to happen:
5. Give Up Fewer Shots on Net
The weakest link the Canadiens have is on defense. “Weakest” may be a misrepresenting the situation, because it’s a very young corps that has clear potential to develop into one of the league’s best. Furthermore, the Habs do generate a league-low 25.1 shots on goal per game, whereas their shots against per game is a ninth-highest 29.3.
The difference is, they score a half-decent 3.03 goals per game, which is ranked 18th, while giving up 3.41 (fifth-worst). On the plus side, their recent success has coincided with the debuts of Patrik Laine on offense and Alexandre Carrier on defense.
It may be a small sample size, but over the latter’s six games with the team, they’ve only given up 27.83 on average. If they can sustain that improvement, it would go a long way to establishing them as a playoff-calibre team.
That doesn’t make them a playoff team, though.
4. Play Montembeault’s Backup Regularly
Obviously, the goals against represent a problem. However, based on the shots against and No. 1 goalie Sam Montembeault’s decent 5.6 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck.com), it’s clear the problem isn’t on him despite his just-decent 2.87 goals-against average and .902 save percentage. Regardless, the Canadiens were at serious risk of overworking him, due to an obvious lack of trust in Cayden Primeau’s abilities to back him up, apparently prompting the latter’s demotion (and the promotion of Jakub Dobes).
The fact is, prior to Dobes’ historic debut, Montembeault had started 27 of the team’s 34 games, including the two recent games on back-to-back nights against the Red Wings. That had put him on pace for 65 starts, when he has never played more than 41 in any single professional season before. And there’s ample evidence to suggest he’s not equipped to play even that much. For example, Primeau actually outplayed Montembeault down the stretch last season, earning a .921 SV% over his final nine games following the trade deadline. Montembeault had one of .897 over his last 11, from the point at which the Canadiens traded Jake Allen to make him the team’s undisputed No. 1 for all intents and purposes.
Related: Canadiens Should Play Struggling Primeau More
So, with Montembeault’s effectiveness having an understandable limit each season, the status quo had to change. And, while Dobes’ debut does instill hope the Canadiens will rest Montembeault more, there are no guarantees Dobes, especially as a 23-year-old rookie, can continue to perform reliably. Even so, seeing as Montembeault is their starter for the time being, they simply can’t continue to play him every game, because it doesn’t do anyone, including the Habs themselves regarding their hypothetical playoff prospects, any good.
3. Win the Games Against Teams Below Them in the Standings
The Canadiens have the perfect opportunity to prove they’ve changed their over-reliant-on-their-No. 1 ways first thing in 2025. Up until the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in mid-February, they play five sets of back-to-back games, starting right away. Their first game of 2025 is against the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, Jan. 3, as they continue their late-December road trip. They play the Colorado Avalanche the next night (in Denver).
Logic dictates, the Canadiens start Dobes against the last-place 12-24-2 Blackhawks and Montembeault against the 23-15 Avalanche. In fact, it’s not just logic but necessity. To avoid the same pitfalls they ran into mishandling Primeau, they need to stop insulating Montembeault at the expense of the development of their younger goalies. That means first actually playing their backup, but also generally giving their backup the weaker opponent and the first half of back-to-back games so the team is rested well enough to support them.
It just so happens the Canadiens can check off all three by playing Dobes against the Blackhawks, even if it might be tempting to go the opposite route and make extra certain they get the win on Friday against a lesser opponent by playing Montembeault instead. However, if they can’t trust themselves to play well enough against the Blackhawks to win without having to rely on their goalie to bail them out, what’s the point of all of this?
Ultimately, the Canadiens need to beat teams like the Blackhawks. In all there are nine teams below them in the standings. They play those teams 13 more times. There’s obviously some margin for slight error, but the Habs need to win those games. If not, they represent missed golden opportunities to move up in the standings. And they won’t if they don’t.
2. Win the Games Against Teams in the Wild-Card Race
Unfortunately, that’s not even half the battle. Beating teams below them in the standings is obviously critical, but the key to making the playoffs is for the Canadiens to also win the four-point games they’ve got left, so games against teams actually in the wild-card race. Including the Boston Bruins (1), who are third in the Atlantic Division, but just two points up on the wild-card Lightning (2), there are six total teams who fall in that category (Senators (3), Pittsburgh Penguins, Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers (2)).
The Canadiens have eight such games remaining, having already completed their season series against the Penguins (0-3) and Blue Jackets (2-1). It may seem a bit extreme to suggest the Habs absolutely have to win those games to make the playoffs, but consider the following: They’re 17-17-3, which equates to 37 points. Since the divisions re-aligned after the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, the lowest point total to qualify a team for the postseason was 91 (the Washington Capitals, in 2023-24). That means the Habs have to make up ~54 points at the very least to stand a chance.
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that, in this section and the last, the amount of games discussed total just 21 (so, a possible 42 points). To further illustrate the Herculean task in front of the Canadiens, they not only need to win those games or the equivalent number, but another six approximately, which translates to .600 hockey the remainder of the way. Anything less than that, and they just won’t be good enough. It’s that simple.
1. Pray
It would be disingenuous to suggest something to the effect that the Canadiens no longer hold their fate in their hands as a result of their poor start to the season. To start December, they were just 8-13-3, after all. The fact they’re at .500 now is a testament to how far they’ve come in a short period of time and there is a significant amount of runway left for them to make a run at a playoff spot. Effectively, the old adage, “Win and you’re in” still holds true.
It’s an extreme hypothetical situation, but, if the Canadiens were to run the table and win every remaining game, we’re talking about a 127-point season. The 2022-23 Bruins earned a record 135, making it “possible” in theory, as unlikely as 45 more consecutive victories would be in general, let alone for this specific Canadiens team. All that to say, they can make the playoffs in principle. It’s just a matter of playing above their weight the rest of the way.
Realistically, that’s obviously not going to happen. And it’s inherently unlikely the Canadiens will win every single game against teams in the Eastern Conference wild-card race and teams below them in the standings. Granted, they’ll surprise and probably win games against upper-echelon competition every so often to offset the inevitable losses.
Even so, the Habs have their work cut out for them. No one should delude themselves into thinking a .500 team that consistently gets outchanced is worthy of making the playoffs. That having been said, the team has played better over the last few weeks. If they keep it up and if they get a significant amount of help from other teams (and maybe a little bit from up above), they can do it. They have time on their side. It remains to be seen if they have that higher power.
