The Jets really put the “win” in “Winnipeg” in the first half of the 2023-24 season.
The Jets are officially at their halfway mark, having played their 41st game on Jan. 11. They have put put the league on notice with dominant play on both sides of the puck and in a development absolutely no one saw coming back in October, sit first not only in the Central Division or Western Conference but in the entire NHL with a 28-9-4 record and 60 points. They are riding a franchise-record eight-game winning streak and have lost in regulation just once in their past 19.
The outstanding first half can be seen as no less than a massive “glow up.” In less than a year, the team has gone from a potential rebuilder with questions swirling around the GM and a number of star players’ futures to one that looks like a wagon poised to make some serious noise this spring in the playoffs.
“Obviously, you expect and you hope for the best result. But one thing, I guess, that has been very nice to see is the way the players have taken to what (head coach Rick Bowness and associate coach Scott Arniel) and the coaches have been preaching,” general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff, who was in the hot seat last offseason for the team’s lack of success, said on Jan. 11 at a midseason media availability.
Here, we’ll dive into why they’ve been so good.
Jets Benefitting From Balanced Offense
The Jets’ offensive attack isn’t the most prolific in the NHL — seventh-league wide with 139 goals — nor is it the flashiest. What it sometimes lacks in top-of-the-goalscoring-chart sizzle, however, it more than makes up in steak. The offense is workmanlike, persistent, consistent, and balanced over all four lines.
The Jets have perhaps never had a deeper forward group in 2.0 history and every line truly is a threat to score. When one line is struggling, another usually picks up the slack. They no longer rely on only a few players to do the bulk of the scoring, and that has made them a more dangerous and formidable team.
Increase his club’s depth up front has been a big focus of Cheveldayoff over the past calendar year and his moves have paid off. He acquired proven producer Nino Niederreiter last February from the Nashville Predators, acquired Vladislav Namestnikov from the San Jose Sharks last March, and swapped one NHL-calibre forward for three when he traded Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings last June for Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, and Rasmus Kupari.
The Jets have zero forwards in the NHL’s top 30 in points. Mark Scheifele, who left their most recent game with injury, leads the team with 41 (14 goals, 27 assists) and sits 33rd league wide. They also have zero players in the top 25 in goals, as Kyle Connor — who has missed the past 15 games due to injury — still leads the team with 17 and sits 27th league wide.
What they do have, however, are four lines that post solid possession metrics and chip in. They have nine players with 20-plus points (Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti, Connor, Niederreiter, Namestnikov, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton) and would have 10 if Vilardi had been healthy all season (he has 10 goals and nine assists 19 points in 23 games.) They also have 13 players with five-plus goals.
“When we made the (Dubois) trade at the (2023) draft… we talked that it gave our team a different depth and dimension,” Cheveldayoff said. “It comes back to that next-man mentality… it’s easy to sit here and talk about it, but at the end of the day those players have to go out and execute — and that’s what they’ve done to this point and that’s what they’re going to try to strive to continue to do going forward.”
The balanced offense gets better as games deepen. The Jets have a plus-six goals differential in first periods, but a plus-15 goals differential in seconds and plus-25 goals differential in thirds. They also don’t panic when trailing, as they are 11-7-3 when the opponent scores first. Last season, they were 15-23-1 in that situation.
Jets Playing Historically Stingy On Defence
The Jets have played historically stingy in the defensive zone and their team-wide focus on a stout and stifling defensive structure has been remarkable. Defenders and forwards alike support each other and rarely get out of this structure — a zone defensive system rather than the man-to-man one former head coach Paul Maurice deployed — or run around as they did in past. Instead, they are rightly trusting that they’re offensively talented enough to generate chances while remaining buttoned up in their own end.
Related: Winnipeg Jets’ Defensive Dominance Reaching Historical Levels
The results speak for themselves. The Jets have allowed three or fewer goals in 31 straight games, which is the second-longest streak in the modern NHL era (since 1967) behind the 2014-15 Minnesota Wild, who went 35-straight games allowing three or fewer. The last time they allowed three-plus was more than two months ago on Nov. 2 against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Jets have allowed two goals or fewer in 18 of their last 19 games, and the one time they allowed three went to overtime (a 3-2 loss to the Canadiens on Dec. 18.) At five-on-five play, the strongest facet of the Jets’ game, they have a plus-49 goals differential.
The defensive pairings of Dylan DeMelo and Morrissey, Brenden Dillon and Neal Pionk, and Dylan Samberg and Nate Schmidt have stayed in tact for weeks now. Their chemistry and familiarity with each other is one of the reasons they’re so good at preventing opponents doing anything remotely dangerous, including limiting rush scoring chances, denying entries into their own zone, and preventing shots from and passes to the slot.
All of this is music to Bowness’ ears, who for many years has preached a defense-first message and that all lines must look the same in their own zone.
Hellebuyck and Brossoit Providing Stellar Goaltending
When opponents do get a high-danger chance, they are faced with the daunting task of getting it by Connor Hellebuyck, who has been simply stellar and should be the front-runner at this point for the Vezina Trophy.
Hellebuyck, who was named an NHL All-Star for the fourth time in his career earlier this month, is putting up some of the best numbers of his career. He has a 21-6-3 record, 2.20 goals against average (GAA), .923 save percentage (SV%), two shutouts, and 19.7 goals saved above expected, which leads the NHL. He has not lost in regulation since Nov. 30, and is 11-0-2 since then.
These numbers are not only a testament of how well the team has played in front of him, but also a testament to his preparation, dedication, and ability to rebound after a poor start to the season (he allowed 14 goals in his first three starts.) They also dispel any notion that he’d get complacent after signing a big seven-year contract extension in October.
Related: Jets Extensions Quash Narrative That Players Don’t Like Winnipeg
It hasn’t been any easier for opponents to get pucks past backup Laurent Brossoit. He looks similarly dialled in after a slow start of his own is providing Bowness with the freedom to call upon his number-two option without sacrificing a chance to win. The 30-year-old — who is playing on a one-year contract in hopes of proving to the rest of the NHL he’s capable of being a starter — now owns a 7-3-1 record, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%, and 3.3 goals saved above expected. He has won seven of his past nine starts.
Bowness has said is serious about keeping Hellebuyck fresh for the second half and potential playoffs and not letting him get run ragged like in seasons past, meaning Brossoit should get at least another 12-15 starts this season.
Jets Embrace Solutions, Not Excuses
The Jets appear to be tighter-knit than any other time since the 2017-18 season that included a run to the Western Conference Final. The locker-room culture and collective strength of character have often been issues since then, but removing Dubois and former captain Blake Wheeler seems to have done wonders for the “vibe,” as have Lowry’s appointment as new captain and Bowness’ high standards.
The Jets are now led by someone who embodies hard work and are filled with players who want to be there: Scheifele, along with Hellebuyck, re-upped with a deal that likely make him Jets for life, Niederreiter inked a new three-year deal last month, and pending unrestricted free agents Dillon and DeMelo have been open about their desire to stay. Not a bad retention of top talent for a market that’s far less than the NHL’s most desirable.
Perfetti, who has 29 points and is just one shy of tying his previous career-high, recently spoke on how the team has come together.
“You look at the teams in this league, you look at the players, it’s so hard night in and night out to win on a consistent basis. We’ve been doing that,” he said. “You look at the teams we are ahead of, it’s amazing how we’re coming together and playing really good for each other. Everyone feels really good about their game. It’s a lot of fun coming to the rink every day. Everyone has a smile on their face. It’s a lot easier coming to the rink when you’re winning games.”
Scheifele, who had been rightly criticized in past seasons for poor defensive effort but has recommitted to a strong 200-foot game, concurred.
“You know, it’s a lot of good efforts,” he said after the Jets beat the Arizona Coyotes 6-2 on Jan. 7. “Four lines, six D, two goalies playing awesome. A lot of good efforts each and every night. And when some guys don’t have it other guys pick them up. It’s been a special ride so far.”
The Jets have overcome any adversity thrown at them by acting as a collective. The excuses often used in the Paul Maurice era — injuries, fatigue, travel, too many time-zone switches (yes, really, that was an excuse he used) — have gone in the dustbin where they belong.
Highly-hyped up-and-comer Vilardi goes down in the third game of the season with an injury? The Jets kept winning, going 11-5-2 without him. Bowness takes a month-long leave of absence to be with his wife Judy, who had a health emergency? The Jets kept winning, with Arniel and everyone else picking up the slack in the bench boss’ absence, going 9-2-2 without him so Bowness didn’t have a mess to clean up when he returned.
Related: Jets’ Bowness Excited to Return to The Bench, Praises Arniel
Connor gets taken out for six to eight weeks by a knee-on-knee hit? The Jets have kept winning, going 12-1-2 so far without him. The recent gruelling eight-game in 13-day stretch that included two back to backs? The Jets won all eight of them.
Are the Jets Finally For Real?
One could still be forgiven for being skeptical of the Jets. After all, everyone knows what happened last season: after going 26-14-1 through mid-January and sitting at the top of the Western Conference at one point, the Jets reverted to old bad habits, struggled through the second half, tumbled down the standings, just snuck into the playoffs in the second wild-card spot, and were quickly dispatched by the Golden Knights in the first round. That’s when a rebuild and a sharp change from the stale status quo seemed inevitable.
Seven months later, and the outlook has changed, but hockey oddsmakers aren’t yet totally on board with the idea of the Jets being an elite team. TSN recently had a segment entitled “why don’t the oddsmakers trust the Jets?”, and despite the Jets soaring over everyone else in the NHL, the FanDuel Sportsbook sports-betting website gives them just the 11th-best chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s mug. MoneyPuck gives them the sixth-best odds.
There’s still a lot of time between now and the end of the season, so don’t go planning a parade just yet. 41 games is a lot of time for the teams below the Jets to make up ground if the Jets lose sight of their blueprint for success as they did from last January onward.
“Until you win a Stanley Cup, there’s always room for improvement on everything. That’s the way we live here. Every day we want to address things, every day we want keep getting better with the ultimate goal of winning the Stanley Cup. Until you win that, you should be trying to get better at everything, every day,” Bowness said on Jan. 9.
“We haven’t done anything yet,” he continued. “Get in the playoffs first; we haven’t done anything yet. Yeah, we’ve had a good year up to this point and we’re going to keep pushing them and pushing them and keep getting better.”
Cheveldayoff echoed Bowness’ comments that there is no reason to celebrate yet.
“They’re trying to prove to themselves and to each and every person — their line mate, their seat mate — what they can achieve,” he said. “We’ve accomplished nothing yet. They’ve accomplished nothing yet. They know that, but certainly you put yourself in a good situation if you play like that night after night.”
So, is the current group — either as is, or with a potential piece added near the Mar. 8 Trade Deadline — for real?
The signs are encouraging that they are. Bowness said the Jets are continuing to focus on their process, which is the difference between last season’s group and this one and the main indicator that continued success is possible. They are no longer getting greatly outshot and outplayed and depending on Hellebuyck to bail them out and steal games but instead are playing sustainable hockey that combines a balanced offensive attack with a stifling defensive structure and a committment to work hard for each other.
“I’m excited for these guys, because they’re the ones that execute,” Cheveldayoff said. “You’re excited, but there’s probably still more things that keep me up at night than allow me to wake up with a restful sleep, but that’s the nature of the job.”
Giving a strong effort and focusing on details are things that aren’t susceptible to slumps like scoring, and if the Jets keep their focus squarely on what they can control every night, they can prove this first half isn’t a fluke and allow Cheveldayoff and their fans to rest a little easier.
