For the third successive postseason since the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup (2022), the team has failed to advance to the Western Conference Final and has been defeated by the Dallas Stars in each of the last two playoffs. For how much the front office has invested by way of trades and hefty contracts, the Round 1 loss to the Stars cannot be seen as anything but an unmitigated disaster.
The Stars entered the series without the services of both star defenseman Miro Heiskanen and team-leading goalscorer Jason Robertson, and still managed to dispatch the Avalanche in seven games. Some could point to the pair of overtime losses suffered by the Avalanche in Games 2 and 3 as evidence that the team was a coin flip away, but several worrying trends took root for much of the series, which suggests that the problems run deeper than simple bad luck.
Related: 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Hub
With only the first series in mind, let’s dive into three of the main reasons why the Avalanche lost in the first round and fell to the Stars in the playoffs for the second season in a row.
Avalanche Unable to Hold Onto Late Leads
The first two reasons for the Avalanche’s series loss to the Stars feed into the third and final one. Failing to cash in on numerous power play opportunities, being unable to neutralize the Stars’ power play, and Mackenzie Blackwood‘s untimely stumbles in the crease all combined to make Colorado unable to lock down third-period leads and eventually surrender control of the series.
In three of the Avalanche’s four losses in this series, the Stars tied the game with less than 11 minutes left in the third and used the momentum to eventually win the game. The Avalanche failed to turn their 33-26 advantage in shots in those three third periods into wins, and that lack of late-game execution cost them dearly and puts the franchise in an uncomfortable place existentially this summer.
The Avalanche led 3-2 with just over nine minutes left in the third period of Game 2 before Evgenii Dadonov tied the game and Colin Blackwell won it in overtime. The Avalanche led 1-0 in the third period of Game 3 before Jamie Benn tied it with just over 10 minutes left in regulation, which led to Tyler Seguin’s overtime winner. The Avalanche led 2-0 with fewer than 13 minutes to go and 2-1 with seven minutes remaining in Game 7 before a string of heartbreaking events, including broken sticks, undisciplined penalty-taking, and ineffective special teams play, resulted in a final score of 4-2 in Dallas’ favor.
Former Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen completed his hat-trick into an empty net to fully plunge in the dagger, giving him five goals and 12 points in the series. The Avalanche trading him to the Carolina Hurricanes before he was re-routed to the Stars bit them in the most dramatic way possible.
Avalanche Special Teams Struggle at Wrong Time
One of the driving factors in the Avalanche’s inability to hold leads against the Stars is that their special teams units – usually points of strength – faltered at key points in the series. After ranking eighth in the NHL by power play efficiency (24.8%) and 12th on the penalty kill (79.8%) during the regular season, the special teams success fell to 13.6% on the power play (14th out of 16 playoff teams) and 69.6% on the penalty kill (11th).
The Avalanche had a chance to win both Games 2 and 3 when the Stars took a penalty with less than two minutes remaining in regulation, failed to convert on both opportunities, and lost both games in overtime.
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In Game 7, the Avalanche were handed a four-minute power play after Benn took a double-minor penalty but did not score. They also received an opportunity to ice the series when Matt Duchene took a penalty with the score sitting at 2-1 in their favor, but Cale Makar‘s stick exploded on a flubbed shot and he was forced to take a penalty to break up an oncoming scoring chance.
The Avalanche’s penalty kill struggled all series long but most notably failed to keep the Stars at bay in Game 3 when Benn tied the game late with a power-play marker, and in Game 7 when they allowed two power-play goals within the span of five minutes to lose the late lead and essentially sunk their season. The Stars’ forward group is very deep, but Colorado’s shorthanded units could not repel a power play missing Heiskanen and Robertson pulling the strings.
Blackwood Outdueled By Oettinger
The Avalanche’s goaltending was a story all season long, for better or for worse. The team owned the league’s worst save percentage (SV%) and a 13-12-0 record at the time general manager Chris MacFarland overhauled his goaltending tandem over the span of a week-and-a-half by sending Justus Annunen to the Nashville Predators and Alexandar Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks for Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, respectively.
From Nov. 30 on (the day of the Wedgewood deal), the Avalanche ranked sixth in the NHL by SV% (.907) and compiled a record of 36-17-4. They looked like a completely different team and were confident that Blackwood could make the difference in a series that Georgiev could not in the two seasons prior. Instead, the 28-year-old was outperformed by Jake Oettinger, and while not all of the crucial goals against were his fault, the contrast between the two netminders was stark by the end of the series.
| Blackwood | Statistic | Oettinger |
|---|---|---|
| .892 | SV% | .911 |
| .867 | High-Danger SV% | .806 |
| 2.71 | Goals-Against Average | 2.85 |
| 2.6 | Goals Saved Above Expected | 4.4 |
Oettinger faced the most shots in the first round (223), made the most saves (203), while also allowing more goals (20) than any goalie not named Connor Hellebuyck or Darcy Kuemper. Colorado’s problem was that 12 of the 24 goals they scored against Dallas came in two games, and that they only managed 12 more goals across the remaining five games despite heavily out-shooting the Stars.
Between the two overtime games (2 and 3) and Game 7, Oettinger stopped 86 of 92 shots to post a .935 SV% across those three high-pressure moments. In comparison, Blackwood only stopped 76 of 85 shots over those same three games (.894 SV%) and allowed some backbreaking goals which should not go in during such an integral point in the season.
It might not be fair to isolate only those games given they don’t even constitute half of a seven-game series, but Blackwood was even worse in Games 5 and 6 where he allowed nine goals on 44 shots (.795 SV%). His play was far from the only problem which plagued the Avalanche in this series, but it’s difficult to overcome poor play at the most important position.
Avalanche Have Tough Decisions to Make in 2025 Offseason
One look at the Avalanche’s upcoming cap sheet highlights the conundrum that the front office is set to face this summer as it attempts to move forward after a demoralizing loss.
Brock Nelson, Jonathan Drouin, and Ryan Lindgren are unrestricted free agents (UFAs). Charlie Coyle ($5.25 million), Ross Colton ($4 million), Miles Wood ($2.5 million), Samuel Girard ($5 million), and Josh Manson ($4.5 million) make a combined $21.25 million but, for one reason or another, did not make a positive impact in this series. Gabriel Landeskog ($7 million) is finally healthy again and can no longer be placed on long-term injured reserve to open up cap room.
All in all, the Avalanche already have around $86 million committed to 17 players for next season, giving them in the ballpark of $10 million to work with when it comes to filling out the margins of the roster and to address the second-line center question.
The odds are that there will be change one way or another, but questions remain about what this version of the team requires to once again reach the peak of the 2021-22 season. Who stays and who goes this summer?
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL
