The New York Islanders are heading into a crucial season that could define the franchise’s direction for the next decade. If they build on last year’s progress and establish themselves as genuine contenders, most of the core will remain intact following an aggressive 2025 offseason. However, if they struggle, it could signal the end of the current roster, with new management potentially stepping in. Yet, the most likely outcome is a mediocre season, which would be the worst-case scenario.
The Islanders made a few offseason moves, specifically letting Cal Clutterbuck leave while bringing in Maxim Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair. As well, the defense got healthy and a full training camp under head coach Patrick Roy has given fans reason to believe this current group could take the next step to become Stanley Cup contenders. While the team has gotten better, it has not improved enough to be considered a serious contender for Lord Stanley.
Forward Core Still Does Not Compete
The Islanders forward core improved this offseason. The addition of Duclair to the top line has added speed and a scoring touch, finally solidifying Mathew Barzal’s two forward linemates. With that, Anders Lee has been bumped to a middle-six role, adding a goal-scoring touch in an area the team otherwise lacked lack season. Bringing in Tsyplakov has replaced Clutterbuck’s physicality while adding a scoring threat, potentially as a 20+ goal, 50+ point winger. Despite these two additions, the Islanders still do not compete among the NHL’s best forward cores.
Related: 2023-24 New York Islanders: Too Long, Too Much Money
Take the Islanders Round 1 matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes, for example. The Islanders lost in five games and got outscored 19 to 12. Three of their four losses were by multiple goals and they failed to generate more expected goals in four of the five games, according to MoneyPuck. As well, the eye test showed the Islanders were slower and struggled to find quality scoring chances once Carolina gained momentum. The Hurricanes were the better team and proceeded to lose in Round 2 to the New York Rangers who then lost in Round 3, showing the Islanders were not even close to taking down one of the top teams.
Analytics Do Not Bode Well
Last season, the Islanders finished 19th in expected goals percentage (xG%) with 48.71% and 24th in goals percentage (G%) with 47.54%. No team has finished that low in either category or with less than 50% in either stat and gone on to win the Stanley Cup the following season since MoneyPuck began tracking these metrics in the 2009-10 season.
The last time a team made the Stanley Cup Final with less than 50% in either category the prior season was the Montreal Canadiens in the 2020-21 season with a 48.6 G%. However, they had a 52.6 xG% in 2019-20, the fifth-best in the NHL and higher than the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning.
Individually, the Islanders don’t perform well in these metrics either. Last season, only eight Islanders players had an xG% of 50% or higher. By comparison, recent Stanley Cup champions had many more players qualify for the list: the 2024 Panthers had 15, the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights had 19, the 2022 Colorado Avalanche had 12, the 2021 Lightning had 15, the 2020 Lightning had 13, the 2019 St. Louis Blues had 19, and the 2018 Washington Capitals had, 10, the lowest of any champion since MoneyPuck began tracking, yet still more than the Islanders.
While expected metrics are just indicators, there is a clear link between generating high-quality scoring chances and success. The Islanders have too many players who give up more high-quality and high-quantity chances than they generate, a recipe for disaster.
The Defense is Not That Good
Part of the reason the Islanders struggled last season was the defense. The team gave up 264.71 expected goals, the 12th most in the league and the second most among 2024 Playoff teams (Avalance, 270.27). Sure, the Islanders’ defense was depleted with injuries, but the team has progressively given up more expected goals in each of the past four seasons, showing a downward decline.
Individual defensemen have also seen a recent decline in performance. Adam Pelech recorded career-low marks in G% (38.8%) and xG% (41.3%) last season, and he has only surpassed 50% in either category once since 2018. Similarly, Scott Mayfield posted career-low numbers with a 32.4 G% and 33.3 xG% last season (min. 7 games played), and he hasn’t exceeded 47.5% in either metric since the 2018-19 season. Although both defensemen have dealt with injuries, their impact, even when healthy, hasn’t been as significant as many fans believe. Both defensemen are supposed to shut down the opposition, and while Pelech is frequently lined up against the opponent’s premier scoring threats, his numbers are worrisome.
No Room for Improvement
The Islanders overhauled the roster and will begin the season with just over $200,000 in salary cap space. As the season progresses, they will accrue cap space to spend at the 2025 Trade Deadline, but it will not be enough to become true Stanley Cup contenders. The roster needs a bonafide star, not another middling forward, and there will be no way to add such a player with only around $2 million in cap space.
In the end, this is hockey, and anything can happen. Teams have gone on miracle runs before, and just because data trends say the Islanders are not capable of winning the 2025 Stanley Cup does not mean they will not. The additions of Tsyplakov and Duclair have improved the forward group, and the team did play at nearly a 100-point pace after Roy took over behind the bench. However, the fact remains that this roster isn’t significantly different from last season, and expecting them to overcome past issues and make major improvements is unrealistic. If they had another superstar like Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, or Steven Stamkos, the narrative would be different, but until then, they remain playoff hopefuls.
