There are high hopes for Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky. The 2022 first-round pick is expected to be an integral part of the team’s future success. Although 2022-23 was a forgettable campaign (for the entire club), 2023-24 showed flashes of Slafkovsky’s brilliance. However, it hasn’t fully carried over into 2024-25. Why and what should the team do about it?
Slafkovsky’s Seasons Compared
There is no shortage of players who can tally 50 points in an 82-game season. In 2023-24, 135 players registered that or more. Why would that make the 20-year-old Slovak special? In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t. However, it was encouraging for his personal growth and what the club needed from him.
A chunk of those 50 points (20 goals, 30 assists) were recorded during the final two months of the regular season. Through March and April, he netted seven goals and 12 assists for 38% of his season’s total. Even though the team was going nowhere (Montreal finished 16 points out of a playoff spot), Slafkovsky’s productivity suggested the team had something to work with. For the record, he suited up for all 82 matches.
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Through 37 contests this season, the left winger has four goals and 18 assists (he’s missed three games). Supposing he’s available for all remaining dates, that would be 79 games and out Slafkovsky on pace for:
- eight or nine goals (mathematically 8.54)
- 38 assists
- 46 or 47 points
Those aren’t figures general manager (GM) Kent Hughes or Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations Jeff Gorton wants to see, not from a player with a contract extension that kicks in next season worth $7.6 million per season for the next eight years.
Slafkovsky’s In-Depth Numbers
The irony is that many of his statistics are comparable to last season, making it difficult to pinpoint what the issue is. For help, we referred to the data goldmine: Natural Stat Trick.
Here are Slafkovsky’s 2023-24 and 2024-25 numbers at even strength:
| Statistical categories | 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Corsi% | 47.79% | 47.55% |
| Fenwick% | 48.26% | 49.03% |
| Shooting For % (SF%) | 48.67% | 48.20% |
| Expected Goals For% (xGF%) | 49.04% | 44.64% |
| High Danger Goals For% (HDGF%) | 56.86% | 37.50% |
| High Danger Chances For% (HDCF%) | 47.44% | 40.86% |
| Scoring Chances For% (SCF%) | 45.42% | 44.13% |
Many of the stats are similar. His Fenwick is even a few decimals higher this season than last. However, they diverge significantly when Slafkovsky is in the big payday area: the high-danger zone. Overall, he is doing a lot right, but not enough in critical situations. In his defensive game, and as alluded to, he’s helping his teammates put the puck in the net a bit more this season, so his efforts aren’t going to waste.
Of note, however, is his shooting percentage. In 2023-24, he finished with a respectable 13.2%. This season, he’s firing at 8.7%. That’s significantly lower. Too much lower, some might say. Why is this happening?
Changing Linemates, Injury
Having one’s season temporarily halted after it barely took off is a problem. In the lead up to the Oct. 19 game versus the New York Islanders, Slafkovsky suffered an upper-body injury in practice. He was in the lineup against the Islanders, but that was the last time until Oct. 29 against the Seattle Kraken.
Only 10 days and a trio of contests were missed, but it makes a difference. No player can predict how long it will take to recover or how efficient they’ll be when they return. Slafkovsky’s playing time didn’t diminish, but he didn’t score a goal between Oct. 14 and Nov. 27. That said, October and November were borderline disastrous for the Canadiens as they went 2-5-1 in the first month and 4-6-2 in the second.
When things got tough, as any head coach, Martin St. Louis’ predilection was to juggle lines. As such, the anticipated Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield line was broken up for a while – the duo Slafkovksy has played with most at 19 games and 194:54.
But he also lined up with Suzuki and Kirby Dach six times (51:37) when the latter was promoted to the top line, Jake Evans and Alex Newhook three times (27:57), and Newhook and Dach another three times (19:51). We won’t get bogged down in combinations that played only once or twice. Newhook and Dach have not paid the dividends St. Louis had hoped, although Dach has rekindled some magic since Christmas. Newhook has two assists on the season. Two. Statistically speaking, a player on a line with Newhook as the centre is unlikely to score.
Incidentally, the Slafkovsky, Suzuki, Dach trio wasn’t bad. They sported a Corsi of 60.24%, a Fenwick of 62.26%, a SF% of 60.98%, and an HDCF% of 75%. Those are good numbers. The problem is they only tallied two goals and allowed a pair of goals. All those attractive percentages translated to an even rating.
Slafkovsky Needs to Stick with It
Given that the team has improved its fortunes in recent weeks, it’s easy to overlook that Slafkovsky’s productivity is not quite up to expectations. Winning makes everything seem rosy. Still, the reality is that there needs to be more from the young winger.
When he scores off his wrist shot, the shots are gorgeous. He’s assisting on plenty of goals. The club overall was awful for two months, he suffered an injury and played with teammates who weren’t producing (Newhook still isn’t).
Imagine for a moment what the team might accomplish if everyone who is pulling their weight continues to do so and Slafkovsky finally gets going again. That’s the general idea, one reckons. He’s too talented to finish the season with eight goals, and we know he wants to win and score. The latter just isn’t happening now.
Slafkovsky simply needs to stay the course. The sky is not falling. He has the luxury of figuring things out while the club enjoys success, which is about as comfortable a position to be in for a forward who isn’t scoring.
