With the Vegas Golden Knights capturing the 2023 Stanley Cup following a 9-3 victory against the Florida Panthers in the deciding Game 5, the Colorado Avalanche can officially no longer call themselves the defending Stanley Cup champions. The long-awaited dethroning (the Avalanche were eliminated from the playoffs by the Seattle Kraken on April 30) is complete, but it doesn’t have to mean that the organization is one-and-done when it comes to the Stanley Cup.
Though past performances aren’t always the best indicator of future success when it comes to sports where so much can change on a year-to-year basis, the Avalanche have a solid foundation of recent regular-season success to build upon for 2023-24. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Colorado has won the second-most games (146), owns the second-best points percentage (.705 PTS%), and are tied with the Boston Bruins for the best goal differential (plus-182) over that time frame.
Since the Avalanche made their first postseason appearance of the Jared Bednar era in 2018, they’ve played 70 playoff games (fourth), won 43 games (third), and are one of five franchises to win the Cup over that six-year stretch. Of course, that has little bearing on their moves going forward, but the sizable track record should inspire confidence that they can repeat the feat in short order.
Despite a myriad of issues toppling their defence this past season, the Avalanche have a clear – and relatively simple – path toward regaining their championship status. Now, let’s dive into the three main steps on that journey.
Avalanche Must Acquire a Second-Line Center
The first step is straightforward, non-negotiable, but arguably the most difficult in the process – the Avalanche must acquire a true second-line center by any means necessary. Trades, free agency, you name it. General manager Chris MacFarland knows he has one gaping hole in the lineup and despite choosing not to address it last season, now has the financial tools and knowledge to do so as soon as by the draft.
Given the severity of Gabriel Landeskog’s injury and the significant timeline for recovery, the Avalanche likely knew well ahead of the actual announcement that he would not return this season. Despite this reality, the front office declined to wield the additional cap space that would have been opened up by his assignment to long-term injured reserve (LTIR) ahead of the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline.
The Avalanche have 12 players under contract who played significant NHL minutes last season and should have nearly $20 million in cap space to play with after using LTIR. Restricted free agent (RFA) defenseman Bowen Byram is the only player who could command a significant chunk of that space, so the team will have room to maneuver.
Although a trade for a top-six winger is within the realm of possibility (Alex DeBrincat anyone?), the top-six center trade market looks to be quite rich this summer. To name a few, Elias Lindholm (28 years old), Pierre-Luc DuBois (24), and Nick Schmaltz (27) are three options who both meet the required skill threshold and are young enough to fit within the Avalanche core’s Cup contention timeline.
Related: Avalanche Offseason Trade Targets: Nylander, Schmaltz & More
Taking the free agent route is another potential avenue towards solving the top-six center issue, but as I’ll explore in the next section, the field of qualified candidates is sparse compared to the number of players better suited to depth roles.
Avalanche Must Bolster Roster Depth with Bargain Free Agents
Even though the 2023 free agent pool is thin at the top, there are still a number of affordable depth forwards who could help shore up the Avalanche’s current bottom-six group. Injuries undoubtedly made an impact as several players were forced to play higher in the lineup than they were normally accustomed to when everyone was healthy. Still, such situations must be accounted for over the course of a season that could last anywhere between 82 to 110 games when including the playoffs. The resulting lack of depth sunk the team in Round 1 against the Kraken this past postseason.
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Apart from Mikko Rantanen (seven goals), Nathan MacKinnon (three), and Artturi Lehkonen (three), every other Avalanche forward combined to score only three goals over the course of the seven-game series. Although the Kraken’s top three goalscoring forwards in the series only scored two goals apiece, their remaining forwards combined for eight, with eight different players finding the score sheet for those tallies.
When Evan Rodrigues and J.T. Compher receive upwards of 19 minutes per game in the series, one would expect a greater return than two goals between them, though Rodrigues did also provide four assists. It also didn’t help that 22-year-old forward Alex Newhook stalled in his development in 2022-23 and only tallied a solitary assist against the Kraken. If the Avalanche have any hope of once again winning the Stanley Cup, either those players or their replacements must produce above their cap hit in 2023-24.
The Avalanche are at their best when they play with pace and stretch defences with their speed and passing. Employing a relentless forecheck was also a core tenet of Colorado’s Cup-winning strategy, so finding players who meet one or more of the aforementioned criteria should be the main priority. It’s easier said than done, but the front office has done it before and will have more room and certainty this time around.
Avalanche Must Avoid Poor Injury Luck in 2023-24
The defining narrative of the Avalanche’s underwhelming 2022-23 campaign was injuries, injuries, and more injuries. According to NHL Injury Viz, the Avalanche ranked fifth in the NHL by Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP), a cumulative metric that is based on the per-game cap charge of any missing player due to either injury or illness.
Looking at man-games lost, Landeskog (missed 82 games), Josh Manson (55), Byram (40), Valeri Nichushkin (29), Cale Makar (22), Lehkonen (18), Rodrigues (13), and MacKinnon (11) all missed 10 games or more during the regular season. Few teams are able to weather that type of storm, and it’s astounding that the Avalanche still managed to win the Central Division and finish four points behind the Carolina Hurricanes for second in the overall league standings.
Sometimes injuries are outside of the team’s control, but the number of players that were absent for one reason or another may call into question the abilities of the Avalanche’s medical staff. It could prove to be a one-year blip partly due to the team’s Cup run and ensuing short offseason, but the carnage of 2022-23 cannot be repeated if the team hopes to jump back into contention.
Avalanche Rightly Considered Favourites for 2024 Stanley Cup
Betting odds for the 2024 Stanley Cup were released earlier this week, and the Avalanche opened as the presumptive favourites according to FanDuel. Those odds aren’t necessarily priced according to a team’s probability of winning, but it still speaks to the faith odds-makers have in the Avalanche quickly returning to the upper echelon of Stanley Cup contenders.
The nucleus of the team is still in its prime so placing the Avalanche atop the odds leaderboard isn’t far-fetched, even if some are skeptical of the team’s long-term future given recent off-ice developments and upcoming contract negotiations.
The nature of the sport means that luck plays a greater role in on-ice success than many would like to admit, but teams can still do a great deal to put themselves in a position where the lottery numbers fall in their favour. The 2023-24 season represents a chance at redemption; let’s see if the Avalanche can capitalize.
Data courtesy of CapFriendly and the NHL
