Sitting at a pedestrian 24-28-10 record with 20 games remaining in the 2023-24 season, the Montreal Canadiens are looking at yet another season of missing the playoffs. The team has failed to qualify for the postseason since their exciting run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. Several players have seen encouraging progression, such as the emergence of Juraj Slafkovsky, the rise of Nick Suzuki to true number-one-centre status, and Samuel Montembeault establishing himself in goal above Jake Allen and Cayden Primeau.
Currently sitting in 26th place in the NHL (14th in the Eastern Conference and 7th in the Atlantic Division), the team sits 21 points ahead of the last place San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks (both tied with 37 points). Realistically, their odds at the first-overall draft pick are very low — perhaps even lesser than their odds at somehow making a miraculous late-season playoff push. With the postseason, and conversely, another first-overall pick both being extremely improbable, here’s what fans should expect to conclude the 2023-24 regular season.
Strong Finish for the First Line
The first line combination of Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Slafkovsky has been nothing short of exciting for the Canadiens’ fanbase. The young trio make up three of the team’s top-four leading scorers (along with Mike Matheson), and their chemistry has been a significant factor in elevating the game of first-overall pick Slafkovsky. After scoring a mere eight points in his first 36 games this season (a slightly worse pace than the 10 points he registered in 39 games as a rookie), the hulking Slovak has scored 23 points in the 26 games since, raising his points-per-game from 0.22 to 0.50.
Related: Who Will Be the Canadiens’ Best Players During the 2020s?
Caufield has shattered his previous career-high of 20 assists with 31 in just 62 games, and Suzuki has a realistic chance at becoming the first Canadiens player to record 80 points or average a point-per-game or better since Alexei Kovalev in 2008-09. He also boasts an astounding 13 goals in his past 15 games, second in the NHL to only the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews. Expect this trio to add to their impressive campaigns: Slafkovsky, on pace for 41 points despite the slow first half, should comfortably hit 40 points with an outside shot at recording 50, Suzuki is on pace for 81 points, and Caufield is on pace for 66.
On top of solid production from the first line, some secondary scoring from younger players such as Alex Newhook, Joshua Roy, Jake Evans, and Jesse Ylonen would be an encouraging sight. Secondary scoring has been hard to come by this season for the Canadiens, with Evans their leading scorer apart from the aforementioned top four with just 21 points.
The Arrival of Lane Hutson
Perhaps even more exciting than the heightened play of the first line is the much-anticipated arrival of top prospect Lane Hutson. The undersized Boston University defenseman has 39 points in 30 games this season after scoring 48 points as a freshman. He will certainly be in the midst of the Hobey Baker Award conversation, and will have the opportunity to potentially sign with the Canadiens after his NCAA season concludes (similarly to Caufield’s trajectory in 2021). The highly-touted second-round pick has dominated offensively at seemingly every level, beginning with the United States National Team Development Program and continuing to the NCAA. He will seek to carry his offensive weapons with him to the professional level. An agile and deceptive skater, he will soon join the growing core of young defensemen on the Canadiens roster.
Unlike Slafkovsky and similarly to Caufield, Hutson will have spent at least two full seasons developing his game prior to receiving the promotion to the NHL. In theory, expectations are he transitions in a more similar fashion to the latter than the former. Hutson, who plays with Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes’ son, Jack, as well as fellow Habs prospect Luke Tuch, is second to only projected first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini in team scoring at BU. He will certainly be put under a massive spotlight (for better or worse) upon arriving in Montreal.
Tempered Expectations
Fans expecting a late-season push, whether it’s for the playoffs or simply for a .500 winning percentage, may need to set more realistic expectations. The Habs seemingly accepted their fate when they dealt Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets on Feb. 2. Not only do they have the aforementioned 21-point lead on last place in the NHL, they additionally trail the Tampa Bay Lightning, who hold the second and final Wild Card seed, by 14 points. The Canadiens would finish with a maximum of 98 points should they win every one of their remaining 20 games. Evidently, that won’t happen, and even then that would not guarantee a playoff berth (fans may recall their heartbreaking elimination in 2018-19, when they finished with 96 points).
These tempered expectations are further emphasized by the quality of their remaining schedule. The Canadiens actually have the hardest strength of schedule remaining of any team in the NHL, with matchups against Stanley Cup Contenders such as the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, and Colorado Avalanche.
Looking Ahead to the Draft (and Beyond)
Given their remaining strength of schedule, current position in the standings, and their potential activity at the 2024 Trade Deadline on Friday, March 8, expectations should be set on the Canadiens finishing the season at a similar pace to what their current record suggests. While several young players have progressed over the course of the campaign, it’s looking more and more likely that the team will finish with yet another high first round pick, most likely within the realm of the fifth overall position, where they picked last season. Several enticing prospects should be available to them, such as Cole Eiserman, Ivan Demidov, Cayden Lindstrom, or Berkly Catton, among many others.
Related: Projecting the 2024-25 Canadiens’ Opening Night Roster
How the 2023-24 regular season ends will certainly be an important factor in depicting the outlook for 2024-25. The team will see several new faces such as Hutson or potentially 2023 fifth-overall pick David Reinbacher. Additionally, the team will hope for — and perhaps expect — fully-healthy seasons from significant contributors such as Kirby Dach and Newhook. With another season without playoffs seemingly a foregone conclusion, the team will look to finish strong and take a step forward in 2024-25.
